Alex D

177Joined Oct 2021


This is wonderful.

Plausibly very high impact, certainly neglected, and (crucially) not a particularly weird research program for a neuro/global health focussed epidemiology department.

Have you had any interest from funders or researchers?

I'm actively learning Spanish but am nowhere near fluency, would my presence be disruptive/counterproductive to community building goals?

To be clear, from my perspective this is a plus (since part of what's exciting to me is some foreign language immersion), but I wouldn't want to make folks feel like they needed to default to English.

I am! Would love to discuss, will DM you!

Very cool! I'm an epidemiologist, but I've long had the sense that most of the questions I find most interesting and relevant are actually OR! Your biosecurity list really resonated, many real-world problems reduce to where to position assets.

I have some concrete problems that I'd love to discuss, will reach out!

Here's a scenario:

Bob runs an emergency response organization, which needs cash to scale up when an emergency hits (to hire surge staff, ramp up response operations, etc etc). Bob want to use prediction markets as a hedge, but appropriate disaster markets don't always exist plus it's hard to place high-payoff bets without tying up all his assets in the interim.

Does HedgEverything make Bob happy?

Co-location during the crisis could make sense, depends on the crisis.

One cool idea would be embedding a physical EOC into refuges, and calling reservists in once some crisis threshold was crossed.

Just thinking out loud, natural triggers in the longtermist biosecurity space (where I'm by far most familiar) would be:

  1. a disease event or other early warning signal from public health surveillance
  2. new science & tech development in virology/biotech/etc
  3. shifts in international relations or norms relevant to state bioweapons programs
  4. indications that a non-state group was pursuing existentially risky bio capabilities

... anything else?

Y'all are fully complementary I think. From Linch's proposal:

So the appropriate structure of an elite Forecasting Center might be to pair it up with a elite crisis response unit, possibly in a network/constellation model such that most people are very part-time before urgent crises, such that the additional foresight is guaranteed to be acted on, rather than tossing the forecasts to the rest of the movement (whether decisionmakers or community members) to be acted on later.

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