For convenience: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xFsmibHafAu8APgiS/request-for-proposals-help-open-philanthropy-quantify

(Deadline has passed, but it seems likely to be an ongoing need.)

Here's a scenario:

Bob runs an emergency response organization, which needs cash to scale up when an emergency hits (to hire surge staff, ramp up response operations, etc etc). Bob want to use prediction markets as a hedge, but appropriate disaster markets don't always exist plus it's hard to place high-payoff bets without tying up all his assets in the interim.

Does HedgEverything make Bob happy?

Co-location during the crisis could make sense, depends on the crisis.

One cool idea would be embedding a physical EOC into refuges, and calling reservists in once some crisis threshold was crossed.

Just thinking out loud, natural triggers in the longtermist biosecurity space (where I'm by far most familiar) would be:

1. a disease event or other early warning signal from public health surveillance
2. new science & tech development in virology/biotech/etc
3. shifts in international relations or norms relevant to state bioweapons programs
4. indications that a non-state group was pursuing existentially risky bio capabilities

... anything else?

Y'all are fully complementary I think. From Linch's proposal:

So the appropriate structure of an elite Forecasting Center might be to pair it up with a elite crisis response unit, possibly in a network/constellation model such that most people are very part-time before urgent crises, such that the additional foresight is guaranteed to be acted on, rather than tossing the forecasts to the rest of the movement (whether decisionmakers or community members) to be acted on later.

No one's quite sure exactly what the WHO's Pandemic Intelligence Hub is going to, like y'know, actually do... but it existing is probably a marginal boost in favour of Berlin for Biosecurity EAs.

Would mostly apply to bunkers too!

To some degree these already exists (eg here's a description of Canada's system), but I'm certain they could be drastically expanded, standardized, synthesized, and otherwise improved.

My company seeks to predict or rapidly recognize health security catastrophes, and also requires an influx of capital when such an event occurs (since we wind up with loads of new consulting opportunities to help respond).

Is there currently any way for us to incentivize thick markets on topics that are correlated with our business? The idea of getting the information plus the hedge is super appealing!

My understanding is the Erasmus Programme was explicitly started in part to reduce the chance of conflict between European states.