I work on the 1-on-1 team at 80,000 hours talking to people about their careers; the opinions I've shared here (and will share in the future) are my own.
I think "different timelines don't change the EV of different options very much" plus "personal fit considerations can change the EV of a PhD by a ton" does end up resulting in an argument for the PhD decision not depending much on timelines. I think that you're mostly disagreeing with the first claim, but I'm not entirely sure.
In terms of your point about optimal allocation, my guess is that we disagree to some extent about how much the optimal allocation has changed, but that the much more important disagreement is about whether some kind of centrally planned 'first decide what fraction of the community should be doing what' approach is a sensible way of allocating talent, where my take is that it usually isn't.
I have a vague sense of this talent allocation question having been discussed a bunch, but don't have write-up that immediately comes to mind that I want to point to. I might write something about this at some point, but I'm afraid it's unlikely to be soon. I realise that I haven't argued for my talent allocation claim at all, which might be frustrating, but it seemed better to highlight the disagreement at all than ignore it, given that I didn't have the time to explain in detail.
(I'm excited to think more about the rest of the ideas in this post and might have further comments when I do)
Commenting briefly to endorse the description of my course as an MVP. I'd love for someone to make a better produced version, and am happy for people to use any ideas from it that they think would be useful in producing the better version
[context: I'm one of the advisors, and manage some of the others, but am describing my individual attitude below]
FWIW I don't think the balance you indicated is that tricky, and think that conceiving of what I'm doing when I speak to people as 'charismatic persuasion' would be a big mistake for me to make. I try to:
in a work context, that is. I'm unfortunately usually pretty anxious about, and therefore paying a bunch of attention to, whether people are angry/upset with me, though this is getting better, and easy to mostly 'switch off' on calls because the person in front of me takes my full attention.
I'm very happy to see this! Thank you for organising it.
I read this comment as implying that HLI's reasoning transparency is currently better than Givewell's, and think that this is both:
Not the sort of thing it is reasonable to bring up before immediately hiding behind "that's just my opinion and I don't want to get into a debate about it here".
I therefore downvoted, as well as disagree voting. I don't think downvotes always need comments, but this one seemed worth explaining as the comment contains several statements people might reasonably disagree with.
I'm a little confused about what "too little demand" means in the second paragraph. Both of the below seem like they might be the thing you are claiming:
I'd separately be curious to see more detail on why your guess at the optimal structure for the provision of the kind of services you are interested in is "EA-specific provider". I'm not confident that it's not, but my low confidence guess would be that "EA orgs" are not similar enough that "context on how to with with EA orgs" becomes a hugely important factor.