This is a great idea and I'm excited to see the results!

Sure! The first video in what will become the Introductory series is here.

I don't tend to express things like that, but when I see it I tend to interpret it as "if I thought about this for a while, I expect the probability I'd end up with would be in this range, with moderate confidence".

I don't actually know how often this is a correct interpretation.

I'm considering taking the very +EV betting opportunities available with the US election with the money I plan to donate over the next 6 months, then donating the winnings (or not donating if I lose).

Some more discussion on my twitter here but I'm interested in thoughts from EAF members too. It's not a huge amount of money either way.

After playing with the idea for quite a while, I finally made a couple of youtube videos about forecasting.  I've still got a lot to learn about both production and editing, but I received really valuable feedback which I expect to help a lot going forward.

 Hoping to complete an "Intro to forecasting" series over the next few weeks.

Edit: also this thread is a great idea. Thanks for making it :).

Congrats on the win and what an awesome idea to use it as an outreach opportunity!

I thought this was interesting and well written. Thanks for posting it, and thanks especially for writing it in a way which (at least in my view) was balanced and fair.

I'm unsure about whether the specific example you used was a wise choice. I see the merits to making this abstract enough that it doesn't feel like an attack on people with some particular set of political views (and I think you succeeded on this front), however I found some parts a little hard to follow, and found myself struggling to remember and then having to check whether people were pro-porridge or not. I don't know whether it would have been possible to use a more "realistic" example without compromosing the neutrality I praised at the start however, so maybe this was best.

I like this idea and think it's worth you taking further. My initial reactions are:

• Getting more EA books into peoples hands seems great and worth much more per book than the cost of a book.
• I don't know how much of a bottleneck the price of a book is to buying them for friends/club members. I know EA Oxford has given away many books, I've also bought several for friends (and one famous person I contacted on instagram as a long shot who actually replied.
• I'd therefore be interested in something which aimed to establish whether making books cheaper was a better or worse idea than just encouraging people to gift them.
• John Behar/TLYCS probably have good thoughts on this.

One positive secondary effect of this is that Great but uncontroversial posts will be seen by lots of people. Currently posts which are good but don't generate any disagreement get a few upvotes then fall off the front page pretty quickly because nobody has much to say.