This is a great idea and I'm excited to see the results!
Sure! The first video in what will become the Introductory series is here.
I don't tend to express things like that, but when I see it I tend to interpret it as "if I thought about this for a while, I expect the probability I'd end up with would be in this range, with moderate confidence".I don't actually know how often this is a correct interpretation.
I'm considering taking the very +EV betting opportunities available with the US election with the money I plan to donate over the next 6 months, then donating the winnings (or not donating if I lose).Some more discussion on my twitter here but I'm interested in thoughts from EAF members too. It's not a huge amount of money either way.
After playing with the idea for quite a while, I finally made a couple of youtube videos about forecasting. I've still got a lot to learn about both production and editing, but I received really valuable feedback which I expect to help a lot going forward.
Hoping to complete an "Intro to forecasting" series over the next few weeks.Edit: also this thread is a great idea. Thanks for making it :).
Congrats on the win and what an awesome idea to use it as an outreach opportunity!
Some relevant forecasts from metaculus are here (mouseover or click to see predictions):
Several more relevant questions can be found here.
I thought this was interesting and well written. Thanks for posting it, and thanks especially for writing it in a way which (at least in my view) was balanced and fair.
I'm unsure about whether the specific example you used was a wise choice. I see the merits to making this abstract enough that it doesn't feel like an attack on people with some particular set of political views (and I think you succeeded on this front), however I found some parts a little hard to follow, and found myself struggling to remember and then having to check whether people were pro-porridge or not. I don't know whether it would have been possible to use a more "realistic" example without compromosing the neutrality I praised at the start however, so maybe this was best.
I like this idea and think it's worth you taking further. My initial reactions are:
One positive secondary effect of this is that Great but uncontroversial posts will be seen by lots of people. Currently posts which are good but don't generate any disagreement get a few upvotes then fall off the front page pretty quickly because nobody has much to say.