Thank you for writing this! 

Id like to selfishly point to a previous post I've written on this point: Sometimes, We Can Just Say No

• https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/WfodoyjePTTuaTjLe/efficacy-of-ai-activism-have-we-ever-said-no

You might find it interesting to compare notes :P

Hey Eugene, interesting stuff! 

1) Long-term AI is very likely a complement; short-term, it may be a substitute”

I wonder why you think this?

2) "Good evidence suggests AI benefits the already skilled"

I feel like the evidence here is quite mixed: e.g., see this article from the economist: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/02/13/how-ai-will-divide-the-best-from-the-rest