An existential risk is the risk of an existential catastrophe, i.e. one that threatens the destruction of humanity’s longterm potential.^[1]^[2] Existential risks include natural risks such as those posed by asteroids or supervolcanoes as well as anthropogenic risks like mishaps resulting from synthetic biology or artificial intelligence.

A number of authors have argued that existential risks are especially important because the long-run future of humanity matters a great deal.^[1]^[3]^[4]^[5] Many believe that there is no intrinsic moral difference between the importance of a life today and one in a hundred years. However, there may be many more people in the future than there are now. They argue, therefore, that it is overwhelmingly important to preserve that potential, even if the risks to humanity are small.

One objection to this argument is that people have a special responsibility to other people currently alive that they do not have to people who have not yet been born.^[6] Another objection is that, although it would in principle be important to manage, the risks are currently so unlikely and poorly understood that existential risk reduction is less cost-effective than work on other promising areas.

Further reading

Bostrom, Nick (2002) Existential risks: analyzing human extinction scenarios and related hazards, Journal of Evolution and Technology, vol. 9.
A paper surveying a wide range of non-extinction existential risks.

Bostrom, Nick (2013) Existential risk prevention as global priority, Global Policy, vol. 4, pp. 15–31.

Matheny, Jason Gaverick (2007) Reducing the risk of human extinction, Risk Analysis, vol. 27, pp. 1335–1344.
A paper exploring the cost-effectiveness of extinction risk reduction.

Ord, Toby (2020) The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, London: Bloomsbury Publishing.

Ord, Toby (2020) Existential risks to humanity in Pedro Conceição (ed.) The 2020 Human Development Report: The Next Frontier: Human Development and the Anthropocene, New York: United Nations Development Programme, pp. 106–111.

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