related: Imagen replicating DALL-E very well, seems like good evidence that there's healthy competition between big tech companies, which drives down profits.

One thing that might push against this are economies of scope and if data really does become the new oil and become more relevant over time.

Will China launch a full scale invasion of Taiwan before 2025? Currently at 9%

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030? Currently at 25%

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035? Currently at 39%

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond militarily? Currently at 66%

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States? Currently at 60%

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years? Currently at 56% (I'm at 75% personally) 

Multiplying this out, the joint probabilities for hot US-Sino war in 3, 7, and 12 years, are thus, 4%, 10%, and 15% respectively.

You could submit it as question to his podcast!

Thanks! Similarly, I'm enjoying https://simpl.fyi/ which simplifies gmails design.

Newport's upcoming book will be on his ‘slow productivity’  philosophy which is:

• Do fewer things 
• work at a natural peace 
• obsess over quality

The IGM booth survey of economists seems to suggests that there might be an recession next year in the US.

Agreed- people should look at https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/allPosts and sort by newest and then vote more as a public good to improve the signal to noise ratio.

We might also want to praise users to those who have a high ratio of highly upvoted comments to posts - here's a ranking:

1 khorton
2 larks
3 linch
4 max_daniel
5 michaela
6 michaelstjules
7 pablo_stafforini
8 habryka
9 peter_wildeford
10 maxra
11 jonas-vollmer
12 stefan_schubert
13 john_maxwell
14 aaron-gertler
15 carlshulman
16 john-g-halstead
17 benjamin_todd
18 greg_colbourn
19 michaelplant
20 willbradshaw
21 wei_dai
22 rohinmshah
23 buck
24 owen_cotton-barratt
25 jackm

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vew8Wa5MpTYdUYfyGVacNWgNx2Eyp0yhzITMFWgVkGU/edit#gid=0

Great idea- in the UK, frozen mussels are just £3/kg vs. £1.75/kg for the cheapest frozen chicken. 

I wonder if they could be genetically engineered or breed to taste differently or be bigger, given that some techno economic assessments suggest that creating cultured meat is going to be expensive. 

Oh I see- thanks for clarifying! This is a very interesting idea, but somehow it still seems counterintuitive... by the same logic, wouldn't you also want to overexpose yourself to e.g.  publicly traded real estate because most of it isn't public?

If true, and if most passive (institutional) investors aren't sufficiently exposed to PE (or real estate), wouldn't that suggest that the market undervalues this asset class and you can beat the market by investing in it? Honest question, I haven't thought this through very well, but something still feels counterintuitive that you could create a better passive global market portfolio... 

if you think public PE should perform similarly to PE broadly.

I think this might be another big if... though also one should be surprised if there'd be a big discontinuous jump in returns when going from non-traded to traded.

Trending on hacker news now https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31609325