PhD student in machine learning
Thanks for going into the methodological details here.I think we view "double-counting" differently, or I may not be sufficiently clear in how I handle it. If we take a particular war as a piece of evidence, which we think fits into both "Historical Harms" and "Disvalue Through Intent," and it is overall -8 evidence on the EV of the far future, but it seems 75% explained through "Historical Harms" and 25% explained through "Disvalue Through Intent," then I would put -6 weight on the former and -2 weight on the latter. I agree this isn't very precise, and I'd love future work to go into more analytical detail (though as I say in the post, I expect more knowledge per effort from empirical research).I also think we view "reasons for negative weight" differently. To me, the existence of analogues to intrusion does not make intrusion a non-reason. It just means we should also weigh those analogues. Perhaps they are equally likely and equal in absolute value if they obtain, in which case they would cancel, but usually there is some asymmetry. Similarly, duplication and nesting are factors that are more negative than positive to me, such as because we may discount and neglect the interests of these minds because they are more different and more separated from the mainstream (e.g., the nested minds are probably not out in society campaigning for their own interests because they would need to do so through the nest mind—I think you allude to this, but I wouldn't dismiss it merely because we'll learn how experiences work, such as because we have very good neuroscientific and behavioral evidence of animal consciousness in 2022 but still exploit animals).Your points on interaction effects and nonlinear variation are well-taken and good things to account for in future analyses. In a back-of-the-envelope estimate, I think we should just assign values numerically and remember to feel free to widely vary those numbers, but of course there are hard-to-account-for biases in such assignment, and I think the work of GJP, QURI, etc. can lead to better estimation methods.
This is helpful data. Two important axes of variation here are:- Time, where this has fortunatley become more frequently discussed in recent years- Involvement, where I speak a lot with artificial intelligence and machine learning researches who work on AI safety but not global priorities research; often their motivation was just reading something like Life 3.0. I think these people tend to have thought through crucial considerations less than, say, people on this forum.
Trade 3 is removing a happy person, which is usually bad in a person-affecting view, possibly bad enough to not be worth less than $0.99 and thus not be Dutch booked.
Hi Khorton, I wouldn't describe it as stepping back into the community, and I don't plan on doing that, regardless of this issue, unless you consider occasional posts and presentations or socializing with my EA friends as such. This post on the EV of the future was just particularly suited for the EA Forum (e.g., previous posts on it), and it's been 3 years since I published that public apology and have done everything asked of me by the concerned parties (around 4 years since I was made aware of the concerns, and I know of no concerns about my behavior since then).
I'm not planning to comment more here. This is in my opinion a terrible place to have these conversations, as Dony pointed out as well.
[Edit: I've now made some small additions to the post to better ensure readers do not get the impressions that you're worried about. The substantive content of the post remains the same, and I have not read any disagreements with it, though please let me know if there are any.]
Thanks for clarifying. I see the connection between both sets of comments, but the draft comments still seem more like 'it might be confusing whether this is about your experience in EA or an even-coverage history', while the new comments seem more like 'it might give the impression that Felicifia utilitarians and LessWrong rationalists had a bigger role, that GWWC and 80k didn't have student groups, that EA wasn't selected as a name for CEA in 2011, and that you had as much influence in building EA as a as Will or Toby.' These seem meaningfully different, and while I adjusted for the former, I didn't adjust for the latter.
(Again, I will add some qualification as soon as I can, e.g., noting that there were other student groups, which I'm happy to note but just didn't because that is well-documented and not where I was personally most involved.)
Thanks. I agree with essentially all of this, and I left a comment with details: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZbdNFuEP2zWN5w2Yx/ryancarey-s-shortform?commentId=oxodp9BzigZ5qgEHg
I would reiterate that this was only on my website for a few weeks, and I removed it as soon as I got the negative feedback. [Edit: As I say in my detailed comment, I viewed the term "co-founder" in terms of the broad base of people who built EA as a social movement. Others read it as a narrower term, such as the 1-3 co-founders of a typical company or nonprofit. Now I just avoid the term because I think it's too vague and confusing.]
I think I agree with essentially all of this, though I would have preferred if you gave this feedback when you were reading the draft because I would have worded my comments to ensure they don't give the impression you're worried about. I strongly agree with your guess that EA would probably have come to exist without Will and Toby, and I would extend that to a guess for any small group. Of course such guesses are very speculative.
I would also emphasize my agreement with the claim that the Oxford community played a large role than Felicifia or THINK, but I think EA's origins were broader and more diverse than most people think. My guess for Will and Toby's % of the hours put into "founding" it would be much lower than your 20%.
On the co-founder term, I think of founders as much broader than the founders of, say, a company. EA has been the result of many people's efforts, many of whom I think are ignored or diminished in some tellings of EA history. That being said, I want to emphasize that I think this was only on my website for a few weeks at most, and I removed it shortly after I first received negative feedback on it. I believe I also casually used the term elsewhere, and it was sometimes used by people in my bio description when introducing me as a speaker. Again, I haven't used it since 2019.
I emphasize Felicifia in my comments because that is where I have the most first- hand experience to contribute, its history hasn't been as publicized as others, and I worry that many (most?) people hearing these histories think the history of EA was more centralized in Oxford than it was, in my opinion.
I'm glad you shared this information, and I will try to improve and clarify the post asap.
Hi John, just to clarify some inaccuracies in your two comments:
- I’ve never harassed anyone, and I’ve never stated or implied that I have. I have apologized for making some people uncomfortable with “coming on too strong” in my online romantic advances. As I've said before in that Apology, I never intended to cause any discomfort, and I’m sorry that I did so. There have, to my knowledge, been no concerns about my behavior since I was made aware of these concerns in mid-2018.
- I didn’t lie on my website. I had (in a few places) described myself as a “co-founder” of EA [Edit: Just for clarity, I think this was only on my website for a few weeks? I think I mentioned it and was called it a few times over the years too, such as when being introduced for a lecture. I co-founded the first dedicated student group network, helped set up and moderate the first social media discussion groups, and was one of the first volunteers at ACE as a college student. I always favored a broader-base view of how EA emerged than what many perceived at the time (e.g., more like the founders of a social movement than of a company). Nobody had pushed back against "co-founder" until 2019, and I stopped using the term as soon as there was any pushback.], as I think many who worked to build EA from 2008-2012 could be reasonably described. I’ve stopped using the term because of all the confusion, which I describe a bit in “Some Early History of Effective Altruism.”
- Regarding SI, we were already moving on from CEA’s fiscal sponsorship and donation platform once we got our 501c3 certification in February 2019, so “stopped” and “severed ties” seem misleading.
- CEA did not make me write an apology. We agreed on both that apology document and me not attending CEA events as being the right response to these concerns. I had already written several apologies that were sent privately to various parties without any involvement from CEA.
- There was no discussion of my future posting on the EA Forum, nor to my knowledge any concerns about my behavior on this or other forums.
Otherwise, I have said my piece in the two articles you link, and I don’t plan to leave any more comments in this thread. I appreciate everyone’s thoughtful consideration.
Thanks! Fixed, I think.