John_Maxwell

"I have a (weakly held) intuition that you tend to state your views with more confidence / certainty than is warranted" - an EA friend of mine. Hey man, qualifiers take up valuable space!

John_Maxwell's Comments

Tips for overcoming low back pain

Painscience.com has been amazing for all my chronic pain problems. Looks like he has a comprehensive guide for low back pain which might be worth checking out:

https://www.painscience.com/tutorials/low-back-pain.php

New Top EA Causes for 2020?

Get Joe Biden To Take Nootropics.

For a while, the 2020 American presidential contest was down to three men: The man with heart trouble, the man with brain trouble, and the man with ego trouble. But now that the man with heart trouble is ranking below Andrew Cuomo, who is not even running, in prediction markets for the Democratic nomination, it is looking increasingly likely that the American public will have to decide whether brain trouble or ego trouble is less disqualifying.

What they should be asking is which of brain trouble or ego trouble is more easily fixed.

It's possible you've heard some buzz in your social circle about brain-enhancing nootropic drugs. One thing you might not know is that in some cases, although the drug appears to be something of a dud for younger folks, it works in oldsters:

While it is known that the human brain endures diverse insults in the process of ageing, food-based nootropics are likely to go a long way in mitigating the impacts of these insults. Further research is needed before we reach a point where food-based nootropics are routinely prescribed.

From a lit review.

...According to a meta-analysis on human studies, piracetam improves general cognition when supplemented by people in a state of cognitive decline, such as the kind that comes with aging. Though piracetam may be a useful supplement for improving longevity, it offers limited benefits for healthy people.

Healthy people supplementing piracetam do experience little to no cognitive benefit. Though piracetam supplementation in healthy people is understudied, preliminary evidence suggests that piracetam is most effective for older people...

...

In persons with cognitive decline, supplementation of Piracetam was able to reduce aggression and agitation symptoms.

From Examine.com. (Remember from a few news cycles ago: Joe Biden tells factory worker ‘you’re full of shit’ during a tense argument over guns.)

Why might this be a Top EA Cause? In addition to the usual massive responsibilities of being POTUS, America is currently suffering from a pandemic. A 1% improvement in the intelligence of the actions taken by the chief executive could directly and immediately save thousands of lives.

Is it tractable? Yes, but it's not talent or money limited. It's memetics limited. We need to figure out if we have any connections to the Biden campaign who can start planning his meals to keep the bulb as bright as possible. Failing that, we could suggest that a nootropics company form a marketing initiative around this. Or Kelsey could write about it in Vox. Or something.

Don't forget the importance of regular Super Mario 64 play either.

AMA: Toby Ord, author of "The Precipice" and co-founder of the EA movement

What are the most important new ideas in your book for someone who's already been in the EA movement for quite a while?

Are there any public health funding opportunities with COVID-19 that are plausibly competitive with Givewell top charities per dollar?

My best guess is no, but feel like I should throw this question out there in case anyone can think of plausible candidates.

Can you explain your thinking behind this? My model is that COVID-19 will spread to developing countries before too long, and once there, it will quickly become a much bigger problem than malaria etc. So the highest-impact global health intervention would appear to be "beta testing" of anti-COVID-19 interventions that we think can be transferred to a developing country context.

Anyway, this recent post on far-ultraviolet light looks pretty interesting. I'm pretty optimistic about ideas like this which could use the momentum of COVID-19 to overcome regulatory hurdles etc. and then end up being super valuable for other problems going forward.

Advice for getting the most out of one-on-ones

If everyone records their 1-on-1s and rates their value on a scale of 1 to 10, along with various features that might be predictive of 1-on-1 value (e.g. how junior/senior they are, whether you're working on similar problems, whether you are from the same/different countries, your general conversational prompts/questions/conversation topic, etc.) then we can assemble a dataset and develop a predictive model of how valuable a 1-on-1 is likely to be. That helps with choosing who to meet with, and also persuading people to meet with you (if the predictive model says you should meet, that increases the odds they respond), and also knowing what to talk about (check to see which questions/conversation topics are predictive of a valuable 1-on-1).

Actually for the questions/conversation topics part, if I was an EAG attendee, I would start a thread of question/conversation ideas on Facebook or somewhere for people to brainstorm in, and then use some kind of approval voting so people can figure out what the best prompts are over time. If you have a good conversation, try to figure out what prompt could have created that conversation in retrospect then add it to the list.

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