There are a couple of sources which I'd recommend taking a look at.
I have been working on an EA aligned resource titled "Working on Climate Change as a Technologist" which I've started sharing with a few folks.
The claim that climate change is a major PR issue for EA, if true, is evidence that EA's position on climate change is (in at least this one respect) correct.
I'd like to extend my previous model to have three steps:
(1) EA downplays the impact of climate change (e.g. focusing on x-risk, downplaying mainstream impacts).
(2) EA downplays the value of working on climate change (e.g. low neglectedness, low tractability).
(3) EA discourages people from working on climate change in favor of other causes.
I think you are arguing that since lots of people ...
In fact you suggested below some good arguments for this
Two things:
That's fine. Marginal/social cost of carbon is the superior way to think about the problem.
(A) Carbon budgets express an important idea about continued emissions committing us to particular levels of warming. This is particularly important when we are likely to exceed the 1.5C carbon budget in less than 10 years. (B) The 80K Hours problem problem also doesn't mention marginal/social cost of carbon. (C) Social cost of carbon is usually computed from an IAM, a practice which has been described as such:
"IAMs can be misleading – and are i...
For comparison, on 80K's website right now, AI risk, global priorities research and meta-EA are currently at 26, biosecurity and ending factory farming are at 23, and nuclear security and global health are at 21. So your implicit claim is that, on the margin, climate change is less important than AI and GPR, slightly more important than biosecurity and farmed animal welfare, and much more important than nuclear security and global health (of the bednets and deworming variety). Does that sound right to you? That isn't a gotcha, I am genuin...
That does sound about right to me.
Could you elaborate a bit on why? This doesn't sound insane to me, but it is a pretty big disagreement with 80,000 Hours, and I am more sympathetic to 80K's position on this.
...My claim is that EA currently (1) downplays the impact of climate change (e.g. focusing on x-risk, downplaying mainstream impacts) and (2) downplays the value of working on climate change (e.g. low neglectedness, low tractability). If you agree that (1, 2) are true, then EA is misleading its members about climate change and biasing them to work on
My guess is that people should probably say what they believe, which for many EAs (including me) is that climate change work is both far less impactful and far less neglected than other priority cause areas, and that many people interested in having an impact can do far more good elsewhere.
Rather than "many EAs", I would say "some EAs" believe that climate change work is both far less impactful and far less neglected than other priority cause areas.
I am not one of those people. I am currently in the process of shifting my career to...
That's a fair point. As per the facebook event description, I was originally asked to discuss two posts:
I ended up proposing that I could write a new post, this post. The event was created with a title of "Is climate change neglected within EA?" and I originally intended to give this post the same title. However, I realized that I really wanted to argue a particular side of this question and so I posted this article under a more appr...
You are correct to call out that I haven't actually offered a balanced argument. Climate change is not ignore by EA. As is clear in Appendix A, there have been quite a few posts about climate change in recent years. The purpose of this post was to draw out some particular trends about how I see climate change being discussed by EA.
I think I and others here would have reacted much better if this post felt more curious/exploratory and less arguments-are-solders.
That doesn't mean you can't come down on a side. You can definitely come down on a side. But a
...Thanks for your comments and for linking to that podcast.
And while you may be right that it's a bit naive to just count all climate-related funding in the world when considering the neglectedness of this issue, I suspect that even if you just considered "useful" climate funding, e.g. advocacy for carbon taxes or funding for clean energy, the total would still dwarf the funding for some of the other major risks.
In my post I am arguing for an output metric rather than an input metric. In my opinion, climate change will stop being a neglec...
It seems to me that this conception of neglectedness doesn't help much with cause prioritization. Every problem EAs think about is probably neglected in some global sense. As a civilization we should absolutely do more to fight climate change. I think working on effective climate change solutions is a great career choice; better than, like, 98% of other possible options. But a lot of other factors bear on what the absolute best use of marginal resources is.
Thanks for your feedback.
Framing climate change as the default problem, and working on other cause areas as defecting from the co-ordination needed to solve it, impedes the essential work of cause-impartial prioritisation that is fundamental to doing good in a world like ours.
I think it's worth emphasizing that the title of this post is "Climate Change Is Neglected By EA", rather than "Climate Change Is Ignored By EA", or "Climate Change Is the Single Most Important Cause Above All Others". I am strongly in favor of cau...
Thanks for the reply. As I recently commented on a different post, engagement with commenters is a crucial part of a post like this, and I'm glad you're doing that even though a lot of the response has been negative (and some of it has been mean, which I don't support). That isn't easy.
...I think it's worth emphasizing that the title of this post is "Climate Change Is Neglected By EA", rather than "Climate Change Is Ignored By EA", or "Climate Change Is the Single Most Important Cause Above All Others". I am strongly in favor of cause-impartial prioritisati
Thanks for your comments.
When I looked at the most recent IPCC report, one of the biggest health impacts listed was an increase in malaria. If we could reduce or eradicate malaria, we could also improve lives under climate change.
As I mention in my post, the issue with this is that you are fighting an uphill battle to tackle malaria while climate change continues to expand the territory of malaria and other tropical diseases.
I'd be interested in a direct comparison of some climate donations or careers with some global health donations or careers.
I ha...
Thank you for your comments - I have some responses:
hundreds of billions of dollars (and likely millions of work-years) are already spent every year on climate change mitigation (research, advocacy, or energy subsidies)
A huge amount is already spent on global health and development, and yet the EA community is clearly happy to try and find particularly effective global health and development interventions. There are definitely areas within the hugely broad field of climate change action which are genuinely neglected.
Given the relatively scarce resources...
A huge amount is already spent on global health and development, and yet the EA community is clearly happy to try and find particularly effective global health and development interventions. There are definitely areas within the hugely broad field of climate change action which are genuinely neglected.
This is true. To steelman your point (and do some shameless self-promotion) - at Let's Fund we think funding advocacy for clean energy R&D funding is one such intervention, so they do exist.
From your original comment (emphasis added by me to highlight what jumped out at me):
10°C climate warming over a century would be much lower impact, because there is time to relocate infrastructure and people (and nuclear winter also reduces solar radiation). So I have put it in the intensity category of an abrupt 10% agricultural shortfall.
From my reply:
It seems to me like a huge leap of faith is required to believe that the global impact of 10C of warming (over a century) is on the same order of magnitude as an abrupt 10% agricultural shortfall...
Generally, my agenda was probably a bit simpler than people might have supposed. This was not intended to be the last word on whether climate change or development interventions are always better. Rather it's a starting point and “choose your own adventure” model to help prioritizing between a concrete climate and a concrete development charities. Different situations call for the model to be adapted.
That may have been your intention, but the title of your article is "Global development interventions are generally more effectiv...
Nuclear winter would be approximately 8°C change in only one year, and this is unlikely to cause extinction.
I don't actually see a detailed calculation of human impacts in that paper. I agree that full extinction seems unlikely, but hugely catastrophic impacts seem very plausible. Also, a temperature decrease is definitely not guaranteed to have a symmetric impact with a temperature increase, so the comparison doesn't seem entirely valid.
10°C climate warming over a century would be much lower impact, because there is time to relocate...
Thanks very much for the thoughtful engagement.
I don't actually see a detailed calculation of human impacts in that paper. I agree that full extinction seems unlikely, but hugely catastrophic impacts seem very plausible.
Correct - the estimate of long term future impact was from the survey cited here.
Also, a temperature decrease is definitely not guaranteed to have a symmetric impact with a temperature increase, so the comparison doesn't seem entirely valid.
I agree that it is not necessarily symmetric-cooling is generally worse for plants than wa...
since economists argue over the relative value of mitigation (at least beyond low hanging fruit) and present consumption
Do you have any particular sources in mind for this? My understanding is that economists are in strong agreement that action now is much cheaper than action in future.
Re: 1. I think it's useful to consider concrete examples from history which have killed a large number of people. As per my writeup, in the 20th century, the largest famines killed 10-20M people/decade, so 1-2M people/year, all of which happened when the world had fewe...
I'm sorry but I don't follow your argument. I'll try and explain my own logic and perhaps you can point out the key step where I'm going wrong.
The 2014 WHO paper provides an estimate for the number of climate attributed deaths in 2030 and 2050. Let's imagine that these estimates were 30 deaths and 50 deaths. The GWWC approach then assumes a linear relationship between CO2 emissions and deaths, producing a straight line passing through these estimates. So 2030 sees 30 deaths, 2031 sees 31 deaths, 2032 sees 32 deaths etc. The GWWC ap...
I have included this estimate along with some commentary about why I disagree with your conclusion in an overall review of climate cost-effectiveness analyses.
I'm only aware of (loosely) EA affiliated attempts to assess the cost effectiveness of climate change versus global health. I knew about the "2016 GWWC estimate" before I started work on this writeup, and I had seen the "2019 Hillebrandt Cost-Effectiveness" estimate posted on this forum very recently. I found "2018 Halstead Extinction Risk" and "2019 Bressler Mortality Estimate" by searching on this forum.
Let me know if you're aware of any other relevant estimates.
Okay, I've just posted an analysis of the four relevant impact/cost-effectiveness estimates that I'm aware of. You can see my conclusions here - https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ynRG6JBvARS2cHu63/review-of-climate-cost-effectiveness-analyses
I notified info@80000hours.org about this public post. I thought it would be better to solicit public feedback rather than attempting to work privately with 80K Hours.
Hi mchr3k — thanks for writing this. I'm completely slammed with other work at 80,000 Hours just now (I'm recording 7 podcast interviews this month), so I won't be able to respond right away.
For what it's worth I agree with just posting this and emailing it to us, rather than letting us hold you up. Many people are going to be interested in what you're saying here and might have useful comments to add, not just 80,000 Hours. It's also an area where reasonable people can disagree so it's useful to have a range of views represented publicly.
Possibly letting us comment on a Google Doc first might have been helpful but I don't think people should treat it as a necessary step!
The ideal responses to mainline and extreme risks appear to be different.
I’m curious to know what you think the difference is. Both problems require greenhouse gas emissions to be halted.
Adjusting this by giving more expensive things higher neglectedness scores in effect takes the 'cost' out of the 'cost-effectiveness analysis'.
The neglectedness guidelines focus on the level of existing funding. I argue that this is an insufficient view - that if you have two problems who require $100 or $200 of total funding to solve completely, if they both have $
...I’ll definitely take a look at the cost effectiveness calculations and see if I can work references to these into my draft. In particular, I’m interested to find out what assumptions they are based on.
The other blog post you shared looks to me to have a key flaw - it models emissions as having a sharp spike where they go from growing quickly to declining quickly. This seems very unlikely to me - and the smoother curve as growth slows and turns into decline implies a greater area under the curve and hence a much greater final impact of delay.
I just wanted to leave a quick note to thank you for writing such a thoughtful and well researched piece on this important topic ❤️