Nathan Young
Bio
Participation4
Create prediction markets and forecasting questions on AI risk and biorisk. I have been awarded an FTX Future Fund grant and I work part-time at a prediction market.
Use my connections on Twitter to raise the profile of these predictions and increase the chance that decision-makers discuss these issues.
I am uncertain about how to run an org for my FTXFF grant and whether prediction markets will be a good indicator in practice.
How others can help me
Talking to those in forecasting to improve my forecasting question generation tool
Writing forecasting questions on EA topics.
Meeting EAs I become lifelong friends with.
How I can help others
Connecting them to other EAs.
Writing forecasting questions on metaculus.
Talking to them about forecasting.
Posts 122
Comments2140
Topic Contributions19
I think maybe let's revisit in a month. It's easy for these things to loom larger than they are.
I think this is something to be careful of but I think putting it on a risk register or saying people shouldn't do it is a big step. And not what people do with other relationships.
Seems more of a post hoc justification than a coherent position regardless of relationship type.
Not sure I buy that it's a top priority though, unless we're talking about our understanding of ourselves.
Yeah I think this is underrated. Also ways to think well about these countries. What should our mental models contain?
I dunno, we're talking about risks worth monitoring or being bad signals. That's about the edge cases.
I don't want a big list of rules of things EAs should or shouldn't do.
Probably not that representative, no. I guess like 3-6/10