Nathan Young

Sales/Product Management @ Goodheart Labs (Software Development)
14183 karmaJoined May 2019Working (0-5 years)London, UK

Bio

Participation
4

Create prediction markets and forecasting questions on AI risk and biorisk. I have been awarded an FTX Future Fund grant and I work part-time at a prediction market.

Use my connections on Twitter to raise the profile of these predictions and increase the chance that decision-makers discuss these issues.

I am uncertain about how to run an org for my FTXFF grant and whether prediction markets will be a good indicator in practice.

How others can help me

Talking to those in forecasting to improve my forecasting question generation tool

Writing forecasting questions on EA topics.

Meeting EAs I become lifelong friends with.

How I can help others

Connecting them to other EAs.

Writing forecasting questions on metaculus.

Talking to them about forecasting.

Sequences
1

Moving In Step With One Another

Comments
2140

Topic Contributions
19

Probably not that representative, no. I guess like 3-6/10

Sorry, what would you title it? I was trying to be in the same vein as the first post.

I think maybe let's revisit in a month. It's easy for these things to loom larger than they are.

I think this is something to be careful of but I think putting it on a risk register or saying people shouldn't do it is a big step. And not what people do with other relationships.

Seems more of a post hoc justification than a coherent position regardless of relationship type.

I think until we choose that group this is a non-awful way of doing that?

Not sure I buy that it's a top priority though, unless we're talking about our understanding of ourselves.

Yeah I think this is underrated. Also ways to think well about these countries. What should our mental models contain?

I dunno, we're talking about risks worth monitoring or being bad signals. That's about the edge cases. 

I don't want a big list of rules of things EAs should or shouldn't do.

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