Nathan Young

Sales/Product Management @ Goodheart Labs (Software Development)
14183 karmaJoined May 2019Working (0-5 years)London, UK



Create prediction markets and forecasting questions on AI risk and biorisk. I have been awarded an FTX Future Fund grant and I work part-time at a prediction market.

Use my connections on Twitter to raise the profile of these predictions and increase the chance that decision-makers discuss these issues.

I am uncertain about how to run an org for my FTXFF grant and whether prediction markets will be a good indicator in practice.

How others can help me

Talking to those in forecasting to improve my forecasting question generation tool

Writing forecasting questions on EA topics.

Meeting EAs I become lifelong friends with.

How I can help others

Connecting them to other EAs.

Writing forecasting questions on metaculus.

Talking to them about forecasting.


Moving In Step With One Another


Topic Contributions

Probably not that representative, no. I guess like 3-6/10

Sorry, what would you title it? I was trying to be in the same vein as the first post.

I think maybe let's revisit in a month. It's easy for these things to loom larger than they are.

I think this is something to be careful of but I think putting it on a risk register or saying people shouldn't do it is a big step. And not what people do with other relationships.

Seems more of a post hoc justification than a coherent position regardless of relationship type.

I think until we choose that group this is a non-awful way of doing that?

Not sure I buy that it's a top priority though, unless we're talking about our understanding of ourselves.

Yeah I think this is underrated. Also ways to think well about these countries. What should our mental models contain?

I dunno, we're talking about risks worth monitoring or being bad signals. That's about the edge cases. 

I don't want a big list of rules of things EAs should or shouldn't do.

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