Nathan_Barnard

344Joined Nov 2019

Bio

Blog at The Good Blog https://thegoodblog.substack.com/

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42

Anyone can apply - we can definitely accept people in the US, Canada, Ireland and EU countries - we're currently unsure about others.

I think people should be very careful about promoting earning to give in light of this. It still seems true that because the capital is much more unequally distributed than income if you're trying to earn to give you should be doing by trying to increase the value of equity you hold in firms rather than working  a high paying job. Wealth also seems to be distributed according to a power law which also pushes towards a strategy of being extremely ambitious if one is earning to give. 

I think it would be very bad if people who otherwise could do high impact direct work switched to earning to give in investment banking, consulting or corporate law as a result of this. EA funding has not declined to the point where there is an immediate crisis where relatively small amounts of money from high paying jobs is needed to keep the EA movement going - Dustin is worth somewhere between 5 and 10 billion, founders pledge has 8.5bn committed (although substantially less than 100% of this will go to the highest impact things.) 

Yeah this is just about the constant risk case, I probably should have referred to it not covering time of perils explicitly, although same mechanism with neglectedness should still apply.

wow that's really interesting, I'll look more deeply into that. It's defintely not what I've read happened, but at this point I think it's proably worth me reading the primary sources rather than relying on books. 

I have no specifc source saying explicitly that there wasn't a plan to use nuclear weopons in response to a tactical nuclear weopon. However, I do know what the decsion making stucture for the use of nuclear weopons was. In a case where there hadn't been a decapiting strike on civillian administrators, the Presidnet was presented with plans from the SIOP (US nuclear plan) which were exclusively plans based around a statagy of descrution of the Communist bloc. The SIOP was the US nuclear plan but triggers for nuclear war weren't in it anywhere. When induvidual soliders had tactical nuclear weopons their instructions weren't fixed - they could be instructed explictly not to use tactical nukes, in general though the structure of the US armed forces was to let the commanding officer decide the most approate course of action in a given sitaution. 

Second thing to note - tactical nukes were viewed as battlefeild weopons by both sides. Niether viewed them as anything special becaue they were nuclear in the sense that they should engender an all out attack. 

So maybe I should clarify that by saying that there was no plan that required the use of tactical nuclear weopons in response a Soviet use of them.

Probably the best single text of US nuclear war plans is The Bomb by Fred Kaplan.

Probably best source on how tactical nukes were used is Command and Control by Eric Schollsser

On the second one, I have a post here that serves to give the wider statagic context:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DxJSPyEAvuCMdwYWx/the-mystery-of-the-cuban-missile-crisis

But it's not clear to me how Berlin is relvent. It's relvent insofar as it's an important factor in why the crisis happened but it's not clear to me why Berlin increased the chance of escaltion into nuclear war beyond the fact that the Soviet response to a US invasion of Cuba could be to attempt to take Berlin. 

Why does the China-India war matter here post Sino-Soviet split?

Thanks for you feedback! Unfortunately I am a smart  junior person, so looks like we know who'll be doing the copy editing 

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