Oh yeah, must be due to comment karma.
I think it would be really great if we could make "earning to give" cool again.
This is really cool.
One self-aggrandizing nitpick - You have me at under 3000 karma but I see on my profile that I have 7771 karma... did something go wrong in your calculations there?
Oh cool! That's great to hear about Green.
Thanks for the compliment. You're welcome!
Oh awesome! That's amazing to hear!
Protip: if you find yourself with a slow computer, fix that situation asap.
Protip: if you find yourself with a slow computer, fix that situation asap.
Note to onlookers that we at Rethink Priorities will pay up to $2000 for people to upgrade their computers and that we view this as very important! And if you work with us for more than a year, you can keep your new computer forever.
I realize that this policy may not be a great fit for interns / fellows though, so perhaps I will think about how we can approach that.
I read the book on the Kindle app on my phone. This made it easy to read it in small bits during downtime. I highlighted everything I thought was worth following up on. I then spent ~8hrs going through all the highlights and turning them into the document you see here. The process of making this document greatly helps me remember (and actually act on) the key points of the book.
Obviously I won't do this for every book I read but I want to mainly read books that are so good I feel compelled to make notes out of them.
You can see all the books I've read here.
If we are taking Transformative AI (TAI) to be creating a transformation at the scale of the industrial revolution ... has anyone thought about what "aligning" the actual 1760-1820 industrial revolution might've looked like or what it could've meant for someone living in 1720 to work to ensure that the 1760-1820 industrial revolution was beneficial instead of harmful to humanity?
I guess the analogy might break down though given that the industrial revolution was still well within human control but TAI might easily not be, or that TAI might involve more dis... (read more)
FWIW my personal opinion having both taken the course and read the book is that reading the book is much more valuable (and much less expensive) than taking the course. I think this is also the opinion of other people I know who have done both, but I'm not sure.
Yeah we can look into changing our policy
Really appreciate this!
Yeah we can discuss this a bit more, in particular if it looks like we studied it and it's actually too time-consuming/risky or if it's too expensive or time-consuming to do the legal research to figure out whether it's too risky, I'm happy to continue to abide by the current policy! Just want to make sure the policy is evidence-based or at least based on evidence that being evidence-based is too hard!
I think giving feedback to rejected applicants is very useful psychologically, but is very hard to do well. Not only would it be time consuming but the key issue for me is that, at least in the United States, organizations take on considerable legal risk when explaining to applicants why they were rejected. (For example, the statement "we were looking for someone with more energy" has initiated an age discrimination suit in the US.) Even short of potential lawsuits, you also open yourself to the applicant arguing with you and asking you to reconsider their... (read more)
We've discussed this internally, but I want to register that I continue to think that while there are considerable costs and risks to organizations for giving feedback, there are also considerable benefits to individuals for precise, actionable feedback as well, and the case has not been adequately made that the revealed preferences of orgs is anywhere close to altruistically optimal.
In particular, I also have not seeing much evidence that the legal risks are actually considerable in EV terms compared to either the org time costs of giving feedback or the individual practical benefits of receiving feedback. (all views my view, of course)
It’s why they pay them the big bucks...except for the founders of Rethink Priority and their officers, with mean salaries being about $33K according to their 2020 Form 990.I think the takeaway is that I think there is a problem here that can be resolved completely by at least tripling the current salaries of RP officers and founders.
It's worth noting that we have tripled pay since our 2020 Form 990 (covering 2019). CEO pay is currently $103,959/yr.
No problem - sorry that wasn't clear!
I'm not sure if you are giving us accolades for putting this information in the job ads or missed that specific salary information is in the job ads. But we definitely believe in salary transparency for all the reasons you mentioned and if there's anything we can do to be more transparent, please let us know!
That's quite a good answer
How do we know the AMA answers are coming from real Redwood staff and not cleverly trained text models?
GPT-3 suggests: "We will post the AMA with a disclaimer that the answers are coming from Redwood staff. We will also be sure to include a link to our website in the body of the AMA, with contact information if someone wants to verify with us that an individual is staff."
I'd like this.
Would love to also get your takes on the second list
What, concretely, do you think The Neoliberal Project has accomplished in its existence so far? The 1/3 million and 70+ chapters are cool, but have you seen any traction on policies you care about due to your influence?
This is a complex thing to measure, because the largest thing we're trying to do is to create an ideological movement that captures a lot of people in the long run. I admire the DSA a lot and think they're very much an example of the impact I'd like to have (but obviously with what I think are preferable political views). I think they have had enormous impact on current US politics.
But if you had asked 10 years ago 'What has the DSA accomplished?', it'd be a tough question to answer. They had a handful of local politicians, but nobody really no... (read more)
I think this is a good example of how career advice is mainly about funneling people to thinks that currently exist and are sufficiently scaled to take new people, but often the best thing to do is go to something that does not exist yet. Similarly, it's not a good idea to plan a career ten years into the future, especially when you are young, because things change too fast in hard to predict ways.
So it looks like we survived? (Yay)
Haha it's ok!Hopefully we can actually play a game version sometime.
You do use lots of big words
You could upvote something else I said ;)
Yeah I actually thought you were legit mad at me rather than just in-game strategizing, so that's +1 to this game being unnecessarily stressful.
Thanks for clarifying.
That seems harsh.
lol good fake
I agree with the sentiment here. I am confused about how some people are taking this super seriously and some people are not, and I feel distracted by being worried about offending people over this ritual. I'd love to play a game, play in a social experiment, or observe a ritual, but I agree it would be more fun to know which. Right now, this is not as fun as it could be.
Context: I have both LW and EA Forum launch codes. I never opted-in.
I agree this would be good to see!
People offering forecasting questions like this is really cool, but is there any way to resolve these questions later and give people track records? Or at that point are we just re-inventing Metaculus too much?Probably a question for Aaron Gertler / the EA Dev team. Semi-relatedly, is there a way to tag Aaron? That might be another good feature.
I've made a much stronger precommitment
I hope we invested in secure second strike capabilities. I think Lesswrong has a nuclear triad - we have guest posts on other websites that can launch nukes even after Lesswrong itself has been destroyed
Last year the site looked very obviously nuked. If I see that situation, I will retaliate. If I see some other situation, I will use my best judgement.
Too bad - I am committing to retaliating to establish a deterrent.
Attention EA Forum - I am a chosen user of LessWrong and I have the codes needed to destroy the EA Forum. I hereby make a no first use pledge and I will not enter my codes for any reason, even if asked to do so. I also hereby pledge to second strike - if LessWrong is taken down, I will retaliate.
I downvoted this. I'm not sure if that was an appropriate way to express my views about your comment, but I think you should lift your pledge to second strike, and I think it's bad that you pledged to do so in the first place.
I think one important disanalogy between real nuclear strategy and this game is that there's kind of no reason to press the button, which means that for someone pressing the button, we don't really understand their motives, which makes it less clear that this kind of comment addresses their motives.
Consider that last time LessWrong wa... (read more)
I will not enter my codes for any reason ... if LessWrong is taken down, I will retaliate.
Ahh, Nixon's madman strategy.
I’d like this too.
I enjoyed this. I liked that it was short and sweet, and the art is excellent. I'd be curious what people who have children think about this.
Even without new technological development, why couldn't there be a great power war over a classical Flashpoint, like what caused past wars? Seems like a war over disputed territories in the seas near China, or disputed territories between India and Pakistan could plausibly cause a great power war.
My pithy critique of effective altruism is that we have turned the optimizer's curse into a community.
This makes a lot of sense to me given our limited progress on simulating even very simple animal brains so far, given the huge amount of compute we have nowadays. The only other viable hypothesis I can think of is that people aren't trying that hard, which doesn't seem right to me.
That's what I was thinking.
I imagine suicide rates would not stay the same in a world like this.
I hadn't heard of this - thanks!
I think there are a variety of EAs that would benefit from therapy (and medication) for mental health issues but lack an incredibly clear path to go from "no therapy" to "in therapy". This is especially troubling when the mental health issues cause barriers/blocks to actually seeking out resources and slogging through a tough system. Would there be a way to make a guide for this?Obviously this will vary a ton between states and countries and insurances, so such a guide might be hard.To be clear, I say this as an EA who has benefitted from therapy and... (read more)
There seems to be an opportunity for founding an org for “EA mental health”:
FWIW I made $187K/yr in total comp (£136K/yr) in Chicago as a data scientist after four years of experience. My starting salary was $83K/yr in total comp (£60K/yr) with no experience. In both jobs, I worked about 30hrs/wk. My day-to-day experience was rather identical to this post.
This is cool, and I think it is underrated as a path. In either case, I wish more people tried out just writing, especially on the EA Forum.
What do you see as the difference, if any, between being an internet blogger and being an independent EA researcher (besides sounding less pretentious)? What would you see as the difference, if any, between being an internet blogger and a journalist?
I definitely agree that one of the best things applicants interested in roles at organizations like ours can do to improve their odds of being a successful researcher is to read and write independent research for this forum and get feedback from the community.
I think another underrated way to acquire a credible and relevant credential is to become a top forecaster on Metaculus, Good Judgement Open, or Facebook’s Forecastapp.
Peter Wildeford has done the largest non-manual retention analysis I know, which looked at the percentage of people who answered the EA survey using the same email in multiple years. He found retention rates of around 27%, but cautioned that this was inaccurate due to people using different email addresses each year.
Thanks for citing me, and I'm excited for the new data sources you are looking at.One thing you might want to add is that I looked at two different approaches. You quote the first approach, but the second approach - which I think is more accura... (read more)