All of Rowan Clements 🔸's Comments + Replies

Glad to see this is a thing!
I'm no longer a Christian, but will be buying multiple copies for family members/friends

I guess we know what to put on Switzerland's list of advantages then! 🇨🇭
(Along with good chocolate)

1
Tristan Katz
I still don't think anything beats a good bar of Whittaker's :)
2
Denkenberger🔸
:) though I was talking about whether there could be funding for a high impact project at all, rather than the amount.

Yes, you're right— most of the examples are more in the absolute advantage camp. Would be keen to hear suggestions for NZ's comparative advantage in the technical/economic sense too though 🙂

2^ Also a line in my recent EA-themed rap track

Keen for the latest NickLaing album!

Understood!

Yes, I'm a big fan of New Incentives too— even if your numbers were spot on, 13000+ lives saved is still an incredible result. And they're amazing to work with. (Shout-out to Liz Hixson if she happens to be reading this 💙)

Thanks for sharing— always good to have a sanity check!

I'm currently doing EA NZ's annual review of our partner charities. Is it okay if I include a note about your calculations in our review of New Incentives?

7
NickLaing
Hey Rowan thanks for asking!  I would rather you didn't share the post more widely if that's ok, this is a sanity check and not a cost effectiveness analysis - and a loose check which might be plain wrong. I would want this to carry approximately zero weight about whether people would be keen to donate to New incentives or not.  For the record this hasn't changed my opinion of New Incentives at all, I think they're a great charity! Its just a sanity check of what might be an overestimate of lives saved by GiveWell

Thanks for sharing! Australia and NZ have a lot of similarities, so there's probably some overlap.

That's an interesting point re: the west/China. Both having a colonial background and being in Asia-Pacific opens up some interesting sets of relationships.

Fascinating! I didn't know that wasn't standard

4
NickLaing
A lot of PHD students do get funded in the US and Europe, but its not as much of a "standard" part of the process as New Zealand I don't think.

Loving all the kidney donation posts lately! I've been considering it for a while, and hearing people's experiences is really helpful.

The point about pre-eclampsia was new to me. I wonder if there's a case for delaying donation until after childbearing? Though maybe the risks of donating at a later age outweigh the risks of a single-kidney pregnancy...

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Molly Hickman
Yeah my transplant team really wanted to make sure I understood the pre-eclampsia risk. I think when I got to the phone call stage that was a big part of what we talked about. I've seen at least one person on r/kidneydonors who might have donated sooner but decided to delay until her kids were teens. She was in her 40s when she donated iirc. Thanks for reading! Glad it's helpful! Feel free to reach out if you have any questions or just want to chat about whether to donate.

Agreed that idolatry is unhelpful. *And* I don't think having role models is inherently/always harmful, as long as we remember that everyone is fallible.

Both posts are great, especially in conversation with each other.

Love this question! Some role models for me:

  • @Julia_Wise🔸 — both in terms of bridge-building and personal sacrifice. Julia's writing was pivotal in making me feel welcome in EA. Seeing many of my own interests/concerns/ways of being reflected in her work reassured me there was a place for me in the community. I also greatly admire + aspire to her (and Jeff's) level of giving.
  • @Catherine Low🔸 —  a local mentor/role-model for me, though many outside NZ know her too! She's an amazingly warm and welcoming super-connector/bridge-builder. As my predece
... (read more)
5
GraceAdams🔸
Rowan, this is enormously sweet! I just logged in to the EA Forum for the first time in ages and I'm really honoured! Being public about my health has felt like a tough decision but knowing that it's resonated with you and others makes it feel really worth it!

Understandable— many things in EA can feel counter-intuitive at first!
It's entirely possible that there are charities/cases where it's cheaper to prevent a disability, but it'd take some significant research to establish that.

1
questionhaver8733
Yes I've seen charities like iodized salt however I like against malaria foundation specifically because it's one of if not the only effective altruist charity where I can track my donation and see my individual impact about where my nets are going. With other organizations it feels like I'm just one of millions of people voting in an election and it makes no difference. 

I'm not an expert on Forum etiquette, but the more specific and detailed your question is, the more likely you are to get a response. It also helps to lay out your current thinking/any research you've done/any answers you're considering. That gives people something to engage with, and shows you've put some effort in, rather than just asking a question without trying to answer it for yourself.

It sounds like you want to be the one who creates a tipping point. E.g. in your election analogy, if 51/100 people voted for your preferred candidate, you'd want to be the 51st person who made the difference between them winning and losing. Or if it cost $5000 to save a life (every time, not on average), you'd want to be sure you donated the 5000th dollar.

That's totally understandable (if I'm interpreting you correctly), but I'm not sure it's a helpful way of thinking about things in this case.

Yes, marginal cost effectiveness is important— that's why we th... (read more)

Obviously, people are welcome (and encouraged to!) apply EA principles to any virtually any area. If you want to prevent male circumcision, using EA ideas can help you do that more cost effectively. Thinking about precedent might be helpful— Julia has some useful suggestions there.

That said, I doubt preventing male circumcision would be cost effective as a global priority. While there are some good arguments for phasing it out in developed countries (violation of bodily autonomy, loss of sensation etc.) I'm not aware of it causing many deaths or much ongoi... (read more)

3
Taoist Phoenix
Hi Rowan, thanks for your thoughts on this, and for acknowledging that it violates bodily autonomy and reduces sensation. However, I would respectfully disagree that we should out-of-hand dismiss it as an effective cause area. Why it could be effective As I noted above in my first comment on Intaction's  health equity campaign (HEC) and Intact Global, I think there are highly cost-effective interventions that could prevent one circumcision per dollar or more in expectation. If we assume this reduces sexual pleasure by 20% [1]and that sexual pleasure accounts for 5% of life happiness [2]for average males we could get a rough Fermi estimate of 5% x 20% = 1% reduction in life satisfaction, and if we very, very crudely say that this is similar to losing 1% of 5O years of QALYs, this would be losing .5 QALYs per circumcision, and preventing one circumcision for one dollar would be 2$ per QALY.  I think malaria nets - Givewell’s perennial top charity - are estimated to be about $50 per QALY, so even estimates that were extremely more conservative, like if an intact foreskin only accounts for 5% of sexual pleasure [3]and sexual pleasure only accounts for 2% of overall life satisfaction, it would still be equally effective as bed nets. More importantly in my opinion, I think most of the harm of circumcision comes from extremely severe PTSD and trauma suffered in rare cases, as evidenced in the Reddit “circumcision grief” and a few studies, and numerous anecdotal accounts I could give. I think some lives are made negative at a ratio of 10:1 to 1,000:1 negative to positive experiences. I would personally say I am in the 10:1 to 100:1 category, despite having healed my PTSD after about three years of it, most men don’t. I suspect it is extremely unlikely my life will ever become positive without life extension/other trans-humanist technology. I think it is not unreasonable to estimate that 1 in 10,000 men have their lives made net negative at a 10:1 negative to positive

It's not necessarily/always cheaper to prevent an ongoing disability than to save a life. Some diseases are more likely to kill you (or leave you unscathed if you survive) than to leave you alive but disabled. E.g. rabies is almost always fatal once symptoms have presented— it's far cheaper to prevent a death from rabies (through vaccination or PEP) than to prevent a disability (only ~7 people are known to have survived).

I don't know if that's true for malaria or not. It can cause definitely cause ongoing disability, and it's far less fatal than rabies. It... (read more)

1
questionhaver8733
Thank you for your response. I just thought preventing a disability would be cheaper. I think death is generally bad yes 

Some suggestions off the top of my head:

  • Join a local group if there's one near you— or check out EA Anywhere if there isn't. Getting to know others in the community is a great way of encountering ideas/opportunities you wouldn't necessarily come across on your own.
  • Take a 🔹Trial Pledge or 🔸10% Pledge. Donating effectively is one of the most impactful things you can do at any stage of your EA journey!
  • Volunteer to help out with a high-impact project. The EA Opportunities Board lists a bunch of options (you can filter for volunteer roles). Volunteering does
... (read more)

This matches my experience:

  • I spent about a year volunteering for EA NZ before transitioning into a paid role. (First part time, then full time)
  • I interned with FEM as a research assistant, and was encouraged to apply for a role as operations manager when it came up. They also interviewed external candidates, but ended up hiring me over applicants with significantly more life experience/education. (Not trying to brag: this still surprises me!)
3
SofiaBalderson
Thanks a lot for reading and sharing your story Rowan! Love this story through volunteering, which led to a paid role, which in turn led to another paid role!  I think that it's a really valuable takeaway, that we don't need a whole lot of opportunities, we just need one high quality opportunity, and then build from that.  I also appreciate the point familiarity/trust vs experience/education. I think that people often believe that they have to be better than all the candidates, and there is some truth to it, but often it's about standing out, building trust and credibility over the long run.

I'm happy to speak with people who are considering NZ as a relocation option. Obviously I can't give official immigration advice, but I could help narrow down potential options and connect you with locals if needed. 

Thinking of Marisa today, a year on from her death. She is still very much missed

Kiwis who want to contribute tax-deductibly can make a donation via EA NZ's Gift Trust account.
(Note that you need to select ‘Allocate my donation to’ → ‘One charity or project supported by this Gift Account’ → ‘ALLFED’ to ensure your donation is allocated correctly)

Just made a small donation myself :)

3
Denkenberger🔸
Thank you!

I don't know about GWWC's minimum specifically, but in NZ $5 is the smallest donation that is eligible for a tax credit. Many charities here use it as a minimum for that reason. Maybe there's something similar in other countries?

It may well be worth lowering the limit even if that's the case, but it's a potential explanation.

This is super helpful, thank you!
I've been adapting your approach for EA NZ's job board.

One question: what are you doing with the job listing pages once the positions close/are filled?
Do you...

  • Delete the page, leaving a 404 error?
  • Set up a 301 redirect back to the main job board?
  • Leave the page up, edited to say that the position is now closed?

I've done a bit of reading, but haven't yet figured out which option is preferable from an SEO perspective.

Thanks so much for your service over the years ❤️

I look forward to seeing what you get up to next. But in the meantime, enjoy the well-deserved break!

🦐🦐🦐

This would have been my other recommendation :)

They've been funded by Open Phil, are listed on the GWWC website, and are recommended by Founder's Pledge

NTI bio would be another option. They also do work on nuclear security, but you can allocate your donation to their biorisk programme.

They're recommended by Founder's Pledge,  have been funded by Open Phil, and are a GWWC listed charity

1
Richard Möhn
Thanks! I've written it down for next time.

Still reeling from this news...

While her other accomplishments were far more important, Marisa also had an outsized impact on me personally. Early on, she helped me consider going into a career in operations. Later, we worked together on EA Anywhere, and she pointed me towards— and encouraged me to apply for— my job at FEM.

In the time that I knew her, she was unfailingly helpful and kind. My heart breaks for her, and all those who were close to her. She will be missed.

You're definitely not alone in this— we grapple with similar issues here in NZ. 

As others have said, remote work, earning to give, government/policy work, and starting your own project can all be good options.

EA NZ has set up a job board featuring remote + NZ-based roles, which might be useful to you also? (Though obviously the NZ-based jobs are only relevant to kiwis or those wanting to move here).

Fair point, I suppose— if it turns out that FTX was doing something extremely dodgy/illegal, I might no longer endorse that sentiment. I appreciate the counterargument :)

That said, I still think it's important to remember that SBF and his team are real people with real feelings. There are enough people screaming at them on Twitter already.

Extending some grace seems like a good place to start, even if it turns out that they made some less-than-optimal decisions

Overall, the negative speculation in this thread seems undue and too negative. 

Without trying to make an affirmative statement about what happened at FTX or saying there wasn't any other factors, the comments in this thread ignore the reality of leverage and risk management in brokerage trading (which is what FTX effectively was).

It can be completely true that no customer funds were invested or speculated, but that the fund as a whole can still collapse due to the mechanics/dependencies of leveraged trading.

For example, Robinhood, which no one believe... (read more)

Strong +1 from me, too. I'd really like for this to be the dominant message that Sam and his team hear from the community— lots of care and consideration. 

 Wishing them all the best ❤️

[This comment is no longer endorsed by its author]Reply
Sabs
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Maybe hold off on this sentiment until we know exactly what they were doing with customer funds? It could age quite badly. 

That fits with what we're seeing at Effective Altruism New Zealand. The Sam Harris/Will MacAskill podcast is still a common referral source for new donors, and for people requesting copies of Doing Good Better via our book giveaway. So +1 piece of supporting anecdata

Yeah, I can see how that would be helpful-- I'm thinking of having a go at it as a decision-making tool myself. 

The approach kind of reminds me of internal family systems therapy, actually: trying to reconcile different parts of yourself by imagining them as different people. The main difference being that there's  no trauma in this kind of scenario (hopefully, anyway!), and a lot less psychotherapy jargon :)

I don't have any answers for you, I'm afraid- but I wanted to say that I really like the way you wrote this up. Framing your inner conflict as a debate between Andy and Drew made it very clear and engaging to read. 

2
AndrewDoris
Thanks for the encouragement!  The framing's for my own benefit, too. I've found it helps me navigate big decisions to write out the best case I can think of for both sides, and then reread sometime later to see which best convinces me.

...the next step should probably be establishing this person's moral beliefs/what they want to see in the world (i.e. if they will find meaning in contributing to the problem of global health, animals, long termism etc). What does the person value now, and how is this understanding tied to their sense of identity? 

 

This actually reminds me of a technique that's used in political campaigning.

Back in my pre-EA days, my husband and I were involved with a local political party. People making campaign calls etc. were trained to find something the pers... (read more)

1
Aaron Boddy🔸
Ahh that's really interesting to know! But yeah, I definitely would feel a bit manipulative if I didn't feel like I knew the person properly - I want to present to them ideas that I think they'd really engage with and would interest them, rather than giving them the impression I'm trying to force a viewpoint on them

One thing that might be helpful is to set aside specific times to work on job hunting, and to only check job boards, work on applications etc. during those hours. The rest of the time, try to forget about it altogether.

Most tasks are much less overwhelming when you know you only have to work on them for a set amount of time. (Rather than constantly feeling like you should be doing something).

Echoing some of the other answers here, I’m grateful for the EA community itself. I find it very comforting to know that although the world’s problems are too big to be solved alone— and although all my efforts may well come to nothing— there are others out there trying to do as much good as they can.

Specific people I’m particularly grateful for are:

  • My husband, who has been so supportive of my involvement in EA, and has largely gotten onboard himself, though it wouldn’t necessarily have been his thing otherwise
  • Catherine (cafelow), who is in many ways the l
... (read more)

Also worth mentioning here, especially with the holidays coming up- Raymond Arnold's 'Secular Solstice' album. I particularly like 'Brighter than Today' and 'Five Billion Years'

This is awesome, thank you! Another song on the X risk / end of the world theme is Tom Lehrer's 'We'll All Go Together When We Go', though that's more comedy than inspirational.

Ooh, good question! I have a playlist I sometimes listen to when doing EA work, to keep me going/inspired.

Most of the songs aren't specifically EA related, though, just vaguely... humanist-y? (What my husband calls 'atheist worship music').

Picking out a few of the more thematically appropriate ones:

... (read more)

I finished my degree! (BA in economics and philosophy). It ended up being quite a challenging final semester, mostly because of COVID and things going on in my personal life, so it's great to have it done.

I also won an award from my college for my performance (highest GPA), which was pretty cool.

2
Aaron Gertler 🔸
Congratulations!

Just wanted to say I appreciate the inclusion of good news. EA's focus on big difficult problems can get a bit depressing/discouraging (at least for me), so it's nice to have a reminder that good things are happening too.

Oh, awesome! Thanks for [re]posting.

I'm basically the kind of person you describe: hadn't heard of the project, have been wanting to get through EAG lectures but haven't made the time,  like to listen to podcasts while exercising doing housework etc.

This will be a great addition to my feed :)

 

Well done! Progress still counts as progress, even if it takes a while to get there. 

I've been collecting funeral readings for a while... these aren't all strictly EA related, but do fit the science-y/humanist bent which seems to be common to EA culture:

'Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night' by Dylan Thomas- a fairly common/traditional funeral reading that fits in nicely with EA ideas about fighting back against death and metaphorical darkness.

'If I Can Stop One Heart from Breaking' by Emily Dickinson- doesn't quite fit the EA focus on having a large impact, but does line up well with the broader idea o... (read more)

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