203Joined Sep 2021


treating the pre-post data as evidence in a Bayesian update on conservative priors

Is there any way we can get more details on this? I recently made a blogpost using Bayesian updates to correct for post-decision surprise in GiveWell's estimates, which led to a change in the ranking of New Incentives from 2nd to last in terms of cost effectiveness among Top Charities. I'd imagine (though I haven't read the studies) that the uncertainty in the Strong Minds CEA is / should be much larger. 

For that reason, I would have guessed that Strong Minds would not fare well post-Bayesian adjustment, but it's possible you just used a different (reasonable) prior than I did, or there is some other consideration I'm missing?

Also, even risk neutral evaluators really should be using Bayesian updates (formally or informally) in order to correct for post-decision surprise. (I don't think you necessarily disagree with me on this, but it's worth emphasizing that valuing GW-tier levels of confidence doesn't imply risk aversion.)

Is there any website or spreadsheet where we can see how different ethical views affect the ranking of charities we should donate to? Specifically, where we can plug in our own parameters into the model, like we can do with the GiveWell CEA, except for more complicated positions (like the ones expressed in this post)? 

If not, would such a project potentially be in the cards for HLI?

Anecdotally, I have received 2 rejection emails from EA-aligned organisations which incorporate your first idea for action. Personally, tailored feedback would have been super helpful, but I do appreciate that people are time-constrained.

This was fascinating. Thanks so much for writing it, and for including your refactored model for public viewing. I'm especially looking forward to the future post on uncertainty analysis. 

As of now, I'm fairly optimistic about the potential of recent projects like Squiggle and Causal to help take uncertainty analysis beyond the pessimistic-to-optimistic interval presented in some of GiveWell's older CEAs. I'd be interested in learning, from your future post, about the tools that health economists currently use to analyse uncertainty, and your views on how EAs should carry out uncertainty analysis going forward.