Mechinterp researcher under Adrià Garriga-Alonso.
Any probability as low as 5.93*10^-12 about something as difficult to model as the effects of nuclear war on human society seems extremely overconfident to me. Can you really make 1/5.93*10^-12 (170 billion) predictions about independent topics and expect to be wrong only once? Are you 99.99% [edit: fixed this number] sure that there is no unmodeled set of conditions under which civilizational collapse occurs quickly, which a nuclear war is at least 0.001% likely to cause? I think the minimum probabilities that one should have given these considerations is not much lower than the superforecasters' numbers.
There was likely no FTX polycule (a Manifold question resolved 15%) but I was aware that the FTX and Alameda CEOs were dating. I had gone to a couple of FTX events but try to avoid gossip, so my guess is that half of the well-connected EAs had heard gossip about this.
Being attention-getting and obnoxious probably paid off with slavery because abolition was tractable. But animal advocacy is different. I think a big question is whether he was being strategic, or just obnoxious by nature? If we put Benjamin Lay in 2000, would he start cage-free campaigns or become PETA? Or perhaps find some angle we're overlooking?
My comment is not an ad hominem. An ad hominem attack would be if someone is arguing point X and you distract from X by attacking their character. I was questioning only Remmelt's ability to distinguish good research from crankery, which is directly relevant to the job of an AISC organizer, especially because some AISC streams are about the work in question by Forrest Landry. I apologize if I was unintentionally making some broader character attack. Whether it's obnoxious is up to you to judge.
Crossposted from LessWrong.
Maybe I'm being cynical, but I'd give >30% that funders have declined to fund AI Safety Camp in its current form for some good reason. Has anyone written the case against? I know that AISC used to be good by talking to various colleagues, but I have no particular reason to believe in its current quality.
Surely as their gold standard “career change” pin-up story, they could find a higher EV career change.
You're assuming that the EV of switches from global health to biosecurity is lower than the EV of switching from something else to biosecurity. Even though global health is better than most cause areas, this could be false in practice for at least two reasons
This article just made HN. It's a report saying that 39 of 50 top offsetting programs are likely junk, 8 "look problematic", and 3 lack sufficient information, with none being found good.
I think most climate people are very suspicious of charities like this, rather than or in addition to not believing in ethical offsetting. See this Wendover Productions video on problematic, non-counterfactual, and outright fraudulent climate offsets. I myself am not confident that CATF offsets are good and would need to do a bunch of investigation, and most people are not willing to do this starting from, say, an 80% prior that CATF offsets are bad.
Don't have time to reply in depth, but here are some thoughts: