It was mentioned at the Constellation office that maybe animal welfare people who are predisposed to this kind of weird intervention are working on AI safety instead. I think this is >10% correct but a bit cynical; the WAW people are clearly not afraid of ideas like giving rodents contraceptives and vaccines. My guess is animal welfare is poorly understood and there are various practical problems like preventing animals that don't feel pain from accidentally injuring themselves constantly. Not that this means we shouldn't be trying.

The majority of online articles about effective altruism have always been negative (it used to be 80%+). In the past, EAs were coached not to talk to journalists, and perhaps people finally reversing this is why things are getting better, so I appreciate anyone who does it.

Of course there is FTX, but that doesn't explain everything-- many recent articles including this are mostly not about FTX. At the risk of being obvious, for an intelligent journalist (as many are) to write a bad critique despite talking to thoughtful people, it has to be that a negative portrayal of EA serves their agenda far better than a neutral or positive one. Maybe that agenda is advocating for particular causes, a progressive politics that unfortunately aligns with Torres' personal vendetta, or just a deep belief that charity cannot or should not be quantified or optimized. In these cases maybe there is nothing we can do except promote the ideas of beneficentrism, triage, and scope sensitivity, continue talking to journalists, and fix both the genuine problems and perceived problems created by FTX, until bad critiques are no longer popular enough to succeed.

The Pulse survey has now basically allayed all of my concerns.

Thanks, I've started donating $33/month to the FarmKind bonus fund, which is double the calculator estimate for my diet. [1] I will probably donate ~$10k of stocks in 2025 to offset my lifetime diet impact-- is there any reason not to do this? I've already looked at the non-counterfactual matching argument, which I don't find convincing.

[1] I basically never eat chicken, substituting it with other meats, so I reduced the poultry category by 2/3 and allocated that proportionally between the beef and pork categories.

I disagree with a few points, especially paragraph 1. Are you saying that people were worried about abolition slowing down economic growth and lowering standards of living? I haven't heard this as a significant concern-- free labor was perfectly capable of producing cotton at a small premium, and there were significant British boycotts of slave-produced products like cotton and sugar.

As for utilitarian arguments, that's not the main way I imagine EAs would help. EA pragmatists would prioritize the cause for utilitarian reasons and do whatever is best to achieve their policy goals, much as we are already doing for animal welfare. The success of EAs in animal welfare, or indeed anywhere other than x-risk, is in implementation of things like corporate campaigns rather than mass spreading of arguments. Even in x-risk, an alliance with natsec people has effected concrete policy outcomes like compute export controls.

To paragraph 2, the number of philosophers is pretty low in contemporary EA. We just hear about them more. And while abolition might have been relatively intractable in the US, my guess is the UK could have been sped up. 

I basically agree with paragraph 3, though I would hope if it came to it we would find something more economical than directly freeing slaves.

Overall thanks for the thoughtful response! I wouldn't mind discussing this more.

I was imagining a split similar to the present, in which over half of EAs were American or British.

How do I offset my animal product consumption as easily as possible? The ideal product would be a basket of offsets that's

• easy to set up-- ideally a single monthly donation equivalent to the animal product consumption of the average American, which I can scale up a bit to make sure I'm net positive
• based on well-founded impact estimates
• affects a wide variety of animals reflecting my actual diet-- at a minimum my donation would be split among separate nonprofits improving the welfare of mammals, birds, fish, and invertebrates, and ideally it would closely track the suffering created by each animal product within that category
• includes all animal products, not just meat.

I know I could potentially have higher impact just betting on saving 10 million shrimp or whatever, but I have enough moral uncertainty that I would highly value this kind of offset package. My guess is there are lots of people for whom going vegan is not possible or desirable, who would be in the same boat.

Suppose that the EA community were transported to the UK and US in 1776. How fast would slavery have been abolished? Recall that the slave trade ended in 1807 in the UK and 1808 in the US, and abolition happened between 1838-1843 in the British Empire and 1865 in the US.

Assumptions:

• Not sure how to define "EA community", but some groups that should definitely be included are the entire staff of OpenPhil and CEA, anyone who dedicates their career choices or donates more than 10% along EA principles, and anyone with >5k EA forum karma.
• EAs have the same proportion of the population as they do now, as well as the same relative levels of wealth, political power, intelligence, and drive.
• EAs forget all our post-1776 historical knowledge, including the historical paths to abolition.
• EA attention is split among other top causes of the day, like infectious disease and crop yields. I can't think of a reason why antislavery would be totally ignored by EAs though, as it seems huge in scope and highly morally salient to people like Bentham.
  • I'm also interested in speculating on other causes, I've just been thinking about abolition recently due to the 80k podcast with Prof. Christopher Brown.

Note that (according to ChatGPT) Quakers were more dedicated to abolition than EAs are to animal advocacy, have a much larger population, and deserve lots of moral credit for abolition in real life. But my guess would be that EAs could find some angles the Quakers wouldn't due to the consequentialist principles of EA. Maybe more evangelism and growth (Quaker population declined in the early 1800s), pragmatism about compensating slaveholders in the US as was done in the UK, or direct political action. Could EAs have gotten the Fugitive Slave Clause out of the Constitution?

It is not clear to me that EA branding is net positive for the movement overall or if it's been tarnished beyond repair by various scandals. Like, it might be that people should make a small personal sacrifice to be publicly EA, but it might also be that the pragmatic collective action is to completely rebrand and/or hope that EA provides a positive radical flank effect.

The reputation of EA at least in the news and on Twitter is pretty bad; something like 90% of the news articles mentioning EA are negative. I do not think it inherently compromises integrity to not publicly associate with EA even if you agree with most EA beliefs, because people who read opinion pieces will assume you agree with everything FTX did, or are a Luddite, or have some other strawman beliefs. I don't know whether EAF readers calling themselves EAs would make others' beliefs about their moral stances more or less accurate.

I don't think this is currently true, but if the rate of scandals continues, anyone holding on to the EA label would be suffering from the toxoplasma of rage, where the EA meme survives by sounding slightly good to the ingroup but extremely negative to anyone else. Therefore, as someone who is disillusioned with the EA community but not various principles, I need to see some data before owning any sort of EA affiliation, to know I'm not making some anti-useful sacrifice.

Given the Guardian piece, inviting Hannania to Manifest seems like an unforced error on the part of Manifold and possibly Lightcone. This does not change because the article was a hitpiece with many inaccuracies. I might have more to say later.