Zvi

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An update in favor of trying to make tens of billions of dollars

As someone who attempted to found a potentially multi-billion dollar company that did not succeed (MetaMed) and who has also made a few other attempts with mixed success, I can strongly confirm:

  1. Starting companies is the highest EV play available in terms of money and also direct impact.
  2. The odds are stacked against you and you probably fail  outright not only fail to make billions, but that's fine.
  3. You learn and skill up a ton even in failure, on real attempts, and make good connections.
  4. Even in moderate success you still can do way better than working for a living.
  5. However, it requires a ton of commitment of time and energy and will, far beyond normal working for a living, and if you don't go all-in in that sense your chances are way worse. And it's totally stressful and exhausting and stuff like that especially as CEO. This isn't a free action.
  6. Also the whole process has a very high probability of corrupting someone's epistemics and values, so you
EA Fundraising Through Advantage Sports Betting: A Guide ($500/Hour in Select States)

As a former professional I can confirm that these opportunities are mostly real and worth taking advantage of if you are confident you will never want to engage in serious sports betting (if you are going to be serious you want to ensure you are using a friendly person's referral code if possible, so you collect their affiliate payments at least in part, which could be worth more than the bonuses). 

Also, you can simply use pinnaclesports.com as a reference 'fair price' for all wagers, and assume the middle of their market is the true odds of everything, and you won't be that wrong. 

Zvi's Thoughts on the Survival and Flourishing Fund (SFF)

Echoing others that there's already a bunch of conversation on LW, so that's probably going to be the primary comment thread. I'll still try to check back periodically to see if there's anything distinct here.