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Epistemic status: Speculation from two decently informed advocates armed with anecdata.
Note on process: After having some version of this conversation several times and saying, “we should probably write about this publicly,” we took the less heroic route: we recorded one of our conversations, fed the transcript into an LLM, and then substantially revised the structure, substance, and framing ourselves. We will not be sharing the transcript, as it is in...
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TLDR: Take the population ethics quiz here: https://mdickens.me/pop-ethics/
Population ethics is an oft-overlooked subfield within ethics. Many people hold views that they don't realize contradict each other, or that have strange implications that they wouldn't endorse if they thought about it more.
Not just that—population ethics is a BIG DEAL. A lot of ethical decisions hinge on how you think about changes in future populations....
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Headline finding: I audited 17 AI Safety Talent programmes. Zero of 17 have published any comparison group, rejected-applicant follow-up, matched control or randomisation. Not one. Every programme that mentions a counterfactual does it by asking participants to self-report.
Background
At least $70 million...
Recent opportunities to take action
A natural setting for the Long Reflection:
Space colonization. If the speed of light is at all binding, then spacefarers will spend thousands/millions/billions+ of years in transit in a (likely) resource constrained environment. Why not engage in the Long Reflection then?
This is especially relevant as these people will be able to restructure society as they see fit. This could also be a reason to put slightly more weight on space colonization as a pathway to existential security—it fosters moral progress & safeguards humanity.
Some might be concerned that space travel/colonization itself is something that should be reflected upon before anyone embarks on the journey. But this is not such a big obstacle. If our spacefaring long reflectors determine along the way that space colonization is bad, they can simply turn back home or, worst case, self-destruct.