You Have Four Words

by Raemon1 min read7th Mar 20198 comments



Epistemic Status: all numbers are made up and/or sketchily sourced.

If you want to coordinate with one person on a thing, you can spend as much time as you want talking to them – answering questions in realtime, addressing confusions as you notice them.

You probably speak at around 100 words per minute. That's 6,000 words per hour. If you talk for 3 hours a day, every workday for a year, you can communicate 4.3 million words worth of nuance.

You can have a real conversation with up to 4 people.

(Last year the small organization I work at considered hiring a 5th person. It turned out to be very costly and we decided to wait, and I think the reasons were related to this phenomenon)

If you want to coordinate with, say, 10 people, you realistically can ask them to read a couple books worth of words. A book is maybe 50,000 words, so you have maybe 200,000 words worth of nuance.

Alternately, you can monologue at people, scaling a conversation past the point where people realistically can ask questions. Either way, you need to hope that your books or your monologues happen to address the particular confusions your 10 teammates have.

If you want to coordinate with 100 people, you can ask them to read a few books, but chances are they won't. They might all read a few books worth of stuff, but they won't all have read the same books. The information that they can be coordinate on is more like "several blogposts." If you're trying to coordinate nerds, maybe those blogposts add up to one book because nerds like to read.

If you want to coordinate 1,000 people... you realistically get one blogpost, or maybe one blogpost worth of jargon that's hopefully self-explanatory enough to be useful.

If you want to coordinate thousands of people...

You have four words.

This has ramifications on how complicated a coordinated effort you can attempt.

What if you need all that nuance and to coordinate thousands of people? What would it look like if the world was filled with complicated problems that required lots of people to solve?

I guess it'd look like this one.



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"Donate to Effective Charities."

"AI will kill us."

"Consider Earning to Give."

"EA is Talent Constrained."

I'll probably refer people to this post when trying to explain why you totally need complex networks when you are trying to coordinate about absolutely anything more complicated than what you can express in 4 words.

(Also: One friend pointed toward the fact that the word hierarchy comes from organisation coordinating effort of more than a billion of people across long time horizons)

This post inspired by a conversation (conversation partner can reveal themselves if they so choose), who originally claimed (I think off-the-cuff) that that you had four words if you needed to coordinate 100,000 people (resulting in highly simplified strategies).

I updated my own estimate downwards (of the number of people you need to be coordinating to face the four word limit), after observing that EA only has somewhere-on-the-order-of-a-thousand people involved and important concepts often lose their nuance. (Although, to be fair, this is at least in part because there's multiple concepts that are all nuanced that all need to be kept track of, each of which need to get boiled down to a simple jargon term)

Me, I think? I recall lamenting about how the "game of telephone" implied by memetic dynamics reduces any nuanced message to about 4 or 5 words.

(In general & broadly: you're welcome to name me as an "inspired by" conversation partner without asking. If you're interested in paraphrasing my views, you can check the paraphrase with me.)

Nod. My motivation to write the post came in a brief spurt and I wanted to just get it out without subjecting it to a review process, so I erred on the side of wording it the way I endorsed and letting you take credit if you wanted.

(Btw, alternate titles for this post were "you have about 5 words", "you only have 5 words", and "you have less than seven words.") :P

My intuition is that at least 1000 EAs have in common a book length amount of reading on EA. Here at the EA Hotel, we can often discuss things at a high level in groups as there is a lot of common knowledge of EA concepts (and the same goes for EA Globals).

[+][comment deleted]3mo 0