Ought has just launched a binary prediction database. You can create public and private questions, filter and search, see your calibration, share sets of questions, and predict on other people's questions.
How you can use this
Here are some of the ways we're excited for people to use this:
- Make quick binary predictions throughout the day
- Share pages of your beliefs, like Pablo Stafforini and Brian Tomasik's set of philosophical beliefs
- Predict on other people's questions, like Scott Alexander's 2020 questions and collated x-risk predictions and AI predictions. Thanks to Michael Aird for compiling the x-risk predictions!
- Track updates in your beliefs over time
- Create questions for friends to predict on like this set of personal predictions
- Analyze your predictions by exporting them as a CSV
Get quick feedback from our rapidly resolving tournament
We've also launched a rapidly resolving forecasting tournament. All questions resolve within a week, so you can get quick feedback to improve your forecasting. You'll be able to see your calibration, and we'll share scores. Predict here before the questions close at 12am PST on Thu 11/19!
Let us know what you think
We expect the binary database to evolve a lot over time, and would love to hear feedback on how to make this most useful for you!