Hide table of contents

Note: This post was link-posted from the Asterisk by the Forum team, with the author's permission. The author may not see or respond to comments on this post. Summaries were auto-generated using GPT-4o, and any mistakes are our own.


Clock monks. Wiki wars. Life inside the whiteboard panopticon. Where do prison gangs come from? Beijing urban dictionary. Embrace your inner cult leader. Gambling for fun and Prophit. Readers added context they thought you might want to know. Americans aren’t actually lonely. Blue antelopes. The rationalist essay review you’ve all been waiting for.

Asterisk is a quarterly journal of clear writing and clear thinking about things that matter (and, occasionally, things we just think are interesting). In this issue:

Chimes at Midnight

by Alec Nevala-Lee

The 10,000-year clock, conceived to promote long-term thinking, reflects both the ambition and compromises of technologists, as its realization—funded and controlled by Jeff Bezos—raises questions about the intersection of philanthropy, power, and the genuine pursuit of future-oriented impact.

Community Organizing

by The Editors

Effective communities shape knowledge, connection, and impact, but their growth and resilience depend on shared purpose, adaptability, and the individuals driving them forward.

Why We Have Prison Gangs

by David Skarbek

As prison populations grew and informal reputation-based governance broke down, gangs emerged as alternative governing bodies, regulating violence, enforcing social norms, and controlling illicit markets—raising complex questions about institutional stability, incentives, and the trade-offs between formal and informal systems of order.

The Making of Community Notes

by Jay Baxter, Keith Coleman, Lucas Neumann, Emily Thai

Community Notes on X exemplifies a scalable, decentralized approach to combating misinformation by leveraging open-source algorithms and crowdsourced fact-checking, fostering trust and cross-partisan agreement while maintaining transparency and speed.

A Chinese Internet Phrasebook

by Molly Huang

The evolution of Chinese internet slang reflects growing disillusionment with labor conditions, economic inequality, and government censorship, highlighting the power of shared language in fostering awareness and resistance.

Looking Back at the Future of Humanity Institute

by Tom Ough

The Future of Humanity Institute, once a pioneering force in existential risk and AI safety, succumbed to administrative friction and shifting institutional priorities, leaving behind a lasting intellectual legacy that continues to shape global discourse on humanity’s long-term future.

A User’s Guide to Building a Subculture

by Jeremiah Johnson

Effective subculture-building requires rallying around a distinctive cause, fostering in-group identity through symbols and shared language, defining an outgroup to strengthen cohesion, cultivating dedicated spaces, leveraging existing networks for growth, and ultimately embracing decentralized community evolution.

Rat Traps

by Sheon Han

The rationalist blogosphere, once a hub for innovative and rigorous discourse, risks stagnation due to insular jargon, intellectual redundancy, and performative monomania, making it crucial for the community to adapt, diversify its influences, and prioritize epistemic freshness to maintain its impact.

The Biggest Community Development Program You’ve Never Heard Of

by Clara Collier

The failure of India’s national Community Development Program, despite the initial success of its pilot, highlights how scaling requires not just effective methods but also strong institutional culture, dedicated leadership, and mechanisms to prevent elite capture—lessons crucial for impact-driven interventions in development and philanthropy.

The Death and Life of Prediction Markets at Google

by Dan Schwarz

Google’s internal prediction markets, Prophit and Gleangen, demonstrated the potential of collective intelligence for corporate decision-making but struggled with regulatory hurdles, organizational resistance, and integration challenges, underscoring the need for structured buy-in from leadership and a clear operational value proposition.

The Depths of Wikipedians

by Annie Rauwerda

Wikipedia thrives on a dedicated, diverse volunteer community balancing rigorous editorial standards with deep personal passions, yet it faces challenges in governance, inclusivity, and content maintenance—issues that highlight the complexities of decentralized knowledge curation and the trade-offs between open collaboration and efficiency.

The Myth of the Loneliness Epidemic

by Claude S. Fischer

Concerns about a “loneliness epidemic” are historically recurrent and often overstated, with evidence suggesting that friendship levels have remained relatively stable over time, though changing societal expectations and measurement biases may amplify perceptions of decline.


A huge thank you to everyone in the community who helped us make Asterisk a reality. We hope you all enjoy reading it as much as we enjoyed making it.

Comments


No comments on this post yet.
Be the first to respond.
Curated and popular this week
 ·  · 8m read
 · 
Around 1 month ago, I wrote a similar Forum post on the Easterlin Paradox. I decided to take it down because: 1) after useful comments, the method looked a little half-baked; 2) I got in touch with two academics – Profs. Caspar Kaiser and Andrew Oswald – and we are now working on a paper together using a related method.  That blog post actually came to the opposite conclusion, but, as mentioned, I don't think the method was fully thought through.  I'm a little more confident about this work. It essentially summarises my Undergraduate dissertation. You can read a full version here. I'm hoping to publish this somewhere, over the Summer. So all feedback is welcome.  TLDR * Life satisfaction (LS) appears flat over time, despite massive economic growth — the “Easterlin Paradox.” * Some argue that happiness is rising, but we’re reporting it more conservatively — a phenomenon called rescaling. * I test this hypothesis using a large (panel) dataset by asking a simple question: has the emotional impact of life events — e.g., unemployment, new relationships — weakened over time? If happiness scales have stretched, life events should “move the needle” less now than in the past. * That’s exactly what I find: on average, the effect of the average life event on reported happiness has fallen by around 40%. * This result is surprisingly robust to various model specifications. It suggests rescaling is a real phenomenon, and that (under 2 strong assumptions), underlying happiness may be 60% higher than reported happiness. * There are some interesting EA-relevant implications for the merits of material abundance, and the limits to subjective wellbeing data. 1. Background: A Happiness Paradox Here is a claim that I suspect most EAs would agree with: humans today live longer, richer, and healthier lives than any point in history. Yet we seem no happier for it. Self-reported life satisfaction (LS), usually measured on a 0–10 scale, has remained remarkably flat over the last f
 ·  · 3m read
 · 
We’ve redesigned effectivealtruism.org to improve understanding and perception of effective altruism, and make it easier to take action.  View the new site → I led the redesign and will be writing in the first person here, but many others contributed research, feedback, writing, editing, and development. I’d love to hear what you think, here is a feedback form. Redesign goals This redesign is part of CEA’s broader efforts to improve how effective altruism is understood and perceived. I focused on goals aligned with CEA’s branding and growth strategy: 1. Improve understanding of what effective altruism is Make the core ideas easier to grasp by simplifying language, addressing common misconceptions, and showcasing more real-world examples of people and projects. 2. Improve the perception of effective altruism I worked from a set of brand associations defined by the group working on the EA brand project[1]. These are words we want people to associate with effective altruism more strongly—like compassionate, competent, and action-oriented. 3. Increase impactful actions Make it easier for visitors to take meaningful next steps, like signing up for the newsletter or intro course, exploring career opportunities, or donating. We focused especially on three key audiences: * To-be direct workers: young people and professionals who might explore impactful career paths * Opinion shapers and people in power: journalists, policymakers, and senior professionals in relevant fields * Donors: from large funders to smaller individual givers and peer foundations Before and after The changes across the site are aimed at making it clearer, more skimmable, and easier to navigate. Here are some side-by-side comparisons: Landing page Some of the changes: * Replaced the economic growth graph with a short video highlighting different cause areas and effective altruism in action * Updated tagline to "Find the best ways to help others" based on testing by Rethink
 ·  · 4m read
 · 
Summary I’m excited to announce a “Digital Sentience Consortium” hosted by Longview Philanthropy, in collaboration with The Navigation Fund and Macroscopic Ventures, to support research and applied projects focused on the potential consciousness, sentience, moral status, and experiences of artificial intelligence systems. The opportunities include research fellowships, career transition fellowships, and a broad request for proposals for applied work on these topics.  For years, I’ve thought this area was seriously overlooked. It now has growing interest. Twenty-two out of 123 pages of  Claude 4’s model card are about its potential moral patienthood. Scientific experts increasingly say that near-term AI sentience is a real possibility; even the skeptical neuroscientist Anil Seth says, “it is unwise to dismiss the possibility altogether.” We’re hoping to bring new people and projects into the field to increase the chance that society deals with the possibility of digital sentience reasonably, and with concern for all involved. * Apply to Research Fellowship * Apply to Career Transition Fellowship * Apply to Request for Proposals Motivation & Focus For about as long as I’ve been reading about transformative AI, I’ve wondered whether society would face critical decisions involving AI sentience. Until recently, I thought there was not much to be done here besides perhaps more philosophy of mind and perhaps some ethics—and I was not sure these approaches would make much progress.  Now, I think there are live areas where people can contribute: * Technically informed research on which AI systems are sentient, like this paper applying existing theories of consciousness to a few AI architectures. * Innovative approaches to investigate sentience, potentially in a way that avoids having to take a stand on a particular theory of consciousness, like work on  AI introspection. * Political philosophy and policy research on the proper role of AI in society. * Work to ed