Does EA have good models of current spending and its impacts on climate change prevention, mitigation, or adaptation? Not about spending by EA's, I mean globally. 

I don't believe it's enough to choose a dollar figure and then say that EA's can't do better than that number, if the spending is on the wrong things. That's the reason for my question.

One of the reasons for EA's to pursue climate change as a cause would be neglectedness, but climate change is not an ignored problem. However, I suspect that most climate change spending does not target the right goals. I also believe that problems of climate change are primarily political and behavioral, not technological. That doesn't mean to me that the problem is intractable, but rather that current approaches to solving it have limited impact.

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The Founders Pledge climate report might have what you're looking for. 

In particular, see the section on 'Focus on neglected technologies' and the climate report calculations spreadsheet