I've been reviewing funding requests as part of Nonlinear's effort to help FTXF grantees. Many applications sound like this:
FTX Future Fund already paid me, so I have plenty of money. I can't spend any of it, since I'm worried about clawbacks. This leaves me practically destitute.
Imagine you could buy insurance against these clawbacks:
Amy has $20,000 in her bank account, but it's all from an FTX grant
Bill owns an insurance company. He believes the chance of a successful clawback is much less than 25%, and he charges Amy $5,000 for the insurance
Now Amy is comfortable spending her remaining $15,000. If a clawback happens, Bill pays her $20,000, and she's unharmed
Seems like a win-win for Amy and Bill. Is there a way to make it happen?
The difficulty with this position is that it assumes the funds were stolen. We're still waiting for a court to decide that. A couple possibilities
In both cases, Amy is just an innocent bystander. It's reasonable for her to buy insurance
Alternatively, if it turns out that FTX was entirely a fraud, then Bill still pays out the entire value of the clawback. The defrauded people are actually better off, since Bill ensures the funds will still be available
Insurance is just a good way to deal with uncertainty. It's a positive-sum trade with a positive externality: