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I think there's a nice hidden theme in the EAG Bay Area content, which is about how EA is still important in the age of AI (disclaimer: I lead the EAG team, so I'm biased). It's not just a technical AI safety conference, but it's also not ignoring the importance of AI. Instead, it's showing how the EA framework can help prioritise AI issues, and bring attention to neglected topics.
For example, our sessions on digital minds with Jeff Sebo and the Rethink team, and our fireside chat with Forethought on post-AGI futures, demonstrate how there's important AI related work that EA is key in making happen, and that others will neglect. And I think sessions like the AI journalism lightning talks and the screening of the animated series 'Ada' also demonstrate how a wide variety of careers and skillsets are important in addressing risks from AI, and why it's valuable for EA to be a broad and diverse movement.
We of course still have some great technical content, such as Ryan Greenblatt discussing the Alignment Faking paper. (And actually perhaps my favourite sessions are the non-AI sessions... I'm really excited to hear more about GiveWell's re-evaluation of GiveDirectly!). But I think the content helps remind me and demonstrate to me why I think the EA community is so valuable, even in the age of AI, and why I think it's still worthwhile for me to work on EA community building!
Applications close this Sunday (Feb 9th) if you want to come join us in the Bay!
EAG Bay Area Application Deadline extended to Feb 9th – apply now!
We've decided to postpone the application deadline by one week from the old deadline of Feb 2nd. We are receiving more applications than in the past two years, and we have a goal of increasing attendance at EAGs which we think this will help. If you've already applied, tell your friends! If you haven't — apply now! Don't leave it till the deadline!
You can find more information on our website.
TL;DR: A 'risky' career “failing” to have an impact doesn’t mean your career has “failed” in the conventional sense, and probably isn’t as bad it intuitively feels.
- You can fail to have an impact with your career in many ways. One way to break it down might be:
- The problem you were trying to address turns out to not be that important
- Your method for addressing the problem turns out to not work
- You don’t succeed in executing your plan
- E.g. you could be aiming to have an impact by reducing the risk of future pandemics, and you do this by aiming to become a leading academic to bring lots of resources and attention to improving vaccine development pipelines. There are several ways you could end up not having much of an impact: pandemic risk could turn out to not be that high; advances in testing and PPE mean we can identify and contain pandemics very quickly, and vaccines aren’t as important; industry labs advance vaccine development very quickly and your lab doesn’t end up affecting things; you don’t succeed at becoming a leading academic, and become a mid-tier researcher instead.
- People often feel risk averse with their careers- we’re worried about taking “riskier” options that might not work out, even if they have higher expected impact. However there are some reasons to think most of the expect impact could come from the tail scenarios where you're really successful.
- I think we neglect is that there are different ways your career plan can not work out. In particular, many of the scenarios where you don’t succeed to have a large positive impact, you still succeed in the other values you have for your career- e.g. you’re still a conventionally successful researcher, you just didn’t happen to save the world.
- And even if your plan “fails” because you don’t reach the level in the field you were aiming for, you likely still end up in a good position e.g. not a senior academic, just a mid-tier academic or a researcher in industry, or not a senior civil servant but mid-tier civil servant. This isn’t true in every area- in some massively oversubscribed areas like professional sports failing can mean not having any job. Or when doing a start-up. But I’d guess this isn’t the majority of impactful careers that people consider.
- I also can imagine myself finding the situation of having tried and failed somewhat comforting in that I can think to myself “I did my bit, I tried, it didn’t work out, but it was a shot worth taking, and now I just have this normally good life to live”. Of course I ‘should’ keep striving for impact, but if that relaxing after I fail makes me more likely to take the risk initially, maybe it’s worth it.
TL;DR: A 'risky' career “failing” to have an impact doesn’t mean your career has “failed” in the conventional sense, and probably isn’t as bad it intuitively feels.