BLUF:
* To determine whether AI is ‘improving exponentially’, ‘hitting the wall’, or any other claim which involves a quantity or magnitude (e.g. ‘This model was a big leap/small increment’). We need a good y-axis: an interval scale of AI capability which means +1 unit always represents the same degree of ‘how much better’, in the same way +1 degree Celsius is always the same amount of ‘how much hotter’.
* Yet there is no good y-axis for AI capability. All our...
Public service announcement
1. Applications are now open for our first ever round of the Charity Entrepreneurship Incubation Program dedicated exclusively to animal welfare. Learn more about what’s different this round here and apply...
TL;DR
* The Long-Term Future Fund is closing down, and EA Funds is launching the Transformative AI Fund with a new full-time team.
* The fund's primary focus is technical AI safety and AI governance (including post-AGI governance), as well as supporting fields such as field-building and forecasting. We'll also consider non-GCR implications of transformative AI such as flourishing futures and digital...
Models or goals that require continuous growth tend to be unsustainable. Looking at nature, most living organisms have a finite mature form.
Systems like GDP are great in a stage of economic growth, but once a mature economy has developed GDP no longer indicates economic improvement.
Similarly, population growth is useful for expansion, but in my opinion not necessarily a valuable goal in the world right now. Although some might be wary of the consequences of population stagnancy or decline, there are actions that can be taken if those in leadership foresee and accept these situations. Some of the most prominent modern population realities and consequences are described in detail by polling expert Dr. Darrel Bricker in The Inquiring Mind Podcast ep. 40.
Interesting. I'm not generally around people who believe population growth is important. I thought that was more a thing that unstable politicians cared about. I think it's more about voting in representative leadership than trying to cater to leaders that aren't interested in being rational.