AI Incident Forecasting

I'm excited to share that my team and I won 1st place out of 35+ project submissions in the AI Forecasting Hackathon hosted by Apart Research and BlueDot Impact!

We trained statistical models on the AI Incidents Database and predicted that AI-related incidents could increase by 6-11x within the next five years, particularly in misuse, misinformation, and system safety issues. This post does not aim to prescribe specific policy interventions. Instead, it presents these forecasts as evidence to help prioritize which risk domains warrant policy attention and deeper evaluation.