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Parent Topic: Forecasting

AI forecasting is the process of trying to predict a variety of outcomes related to AI, such as when human-level AI will emerge (AI timelines) and what impacts it will have.

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Posts tagged AI forecasting

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93
AI timelines by bio anchors: the debate in one place
Will Aldred
· · 2m read
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AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the "Experts," Stand
Holden Karnofsky
· · 13m read
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AI Forecasting Research Ideas
Jaime Sevilla
· · 1m read
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AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years
basil.halperin
· · 31m read
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Literature review of Transformative Artificial Intelligence timelines
Jaime Sevilla
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[Our World in Data] AI timelines: What do experts in artificial intelligence expect for the future? (Roser, 2023)
Will Aldred
· · 2m read
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A concern about the “evolutionary anchor” of Ajeya Cotra’s report on AI timelines.
NunoSempere
· · 6m read
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Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts
elifland
· · 5m read
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Report on Whether AI Could Drive Explosive Economic Growth
Tom_Davidson
· · 3m read
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AI Risk & Policy Forecasts from Metaculus & FLI’s AI Pathways Workshop
Will Aldred
· · 9m read
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A compute-based framework for thinking about the future of AI
Matthew_Barnett
· · 23m read
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AI X-Risk: Integrating on the Shoulders of Giants
TD_Pilditch
· · 56m read
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[Link post] How plausible are AI Takeover scenarios?
SammyDMartin
· · 2m read
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What a compute-centric framework says about AI takeoff speeds
Tom_Davidson
· · 20m read
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Survey on AI existential risk scenarios
Sam Clarke
· · 8m read
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