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It's a clever explanation, but I'm not sure how much to believe it without analysing other hypotheses. E.g. maybe tax-deductibility is a major factor, or maybe it's just much harder to give away large amounts of money quickly.
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BLUF:
* To determine whether AI is ‘improving exponentially’, ‘hitting the wall’, or any other claim which involves a quantity or magnitude (e.g. ‘This model was a big leap/small increment’). We need a good y-axis: an interval scale of AI capability which means +1 unit always represents the same degree of ‘how much better’, in the same way +1 degree Celsius is always the same amount of ‘how much hotter’.
* Yet there is no good y-axis for AI capability. All our...
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* The Long-Term Future Fund is closing down, and EA Funds is launching the Transformative AI Fund with a new full-time team.
* The fund's primary focus is technical AI safety and AI governance (including post-AGI governance), as well as supporting fields such as field-building and forecasting. We'll also consider non-GCR implications of transformative AI such as flourishing futures and digital...
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I like the idea, but I'm not sure it fully captures what is going on. We could be comparing the poor person not to the foundation but to the rich person who endowed it, and asking why they waited until late in life to do so rather than continually donating. The 'poor' person does indeed have a valuable asset in their future earning potential, but so does the young Bill Gates. He could have sold a bit more MSFT stock every time it went up, rather than waiting until the end.