ETA: For those downvoting, tell me, what is your reason?

EAs, here is your opportunity to save thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of lives. The crisis in the Middle East is escalating, and the European and American leaders are endorsing a genocide, which you can work to stop - today. 

Here is the short version of the crisis: on October 7, 2023, Hamas, a Palestinian terrorist organization, attacked multiple targets in Israel, and killed thousands, which were unquestionably indefensible war crimes. However, the response has far exceeded the offense, amounting to ethnic cleansing and genocide.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu live-tweeted the bombing of Palestinian infrastructure, indicating "The images of the devastation and destruction from the Hamas strongholds in Gaza are just the beginning. We have eliminated many hundreds of terrorists, and we will not stop there", while using genocidal language, such as "human beasts" and "purify the settlements" in reference to Palestinians. Netanyahu seems emboldened by American and European support, noting "I am in continuous contact with President Biden, and I would like to thank him again, on behalf of all the citizens of Israel, for the commitment of the USA in words and deeds for the security of Israel.", while according to Ursula von der Leyen, "Israel can count on the EU".  Indeed, the State Department has warned officials to not use three phrases in the media: "de-escalation/ceasefire", "end to violence/bloodshed" and "restoring calm". The Israeli Defense Minister also leaves no question about the threat to Gaza, “Gaza won’t return to what it was before; we will eliminate everything”, then began the chokehold on Gaza by cutting off electricity, food, and fuel, again using the genocidal language of "human animals". Shortly, the internet to Gaza will be disconnected. The Israeli military has ordered the 1.1 million Gazans living in the north to evacuate within 24 hours, which is logistically impossible. Whole hospitals cannot be moved within 24 hours. Thousands of civilians are at risk of being indiscriminately killed. Evacuees have already been targeted. For those who will argue Israel must defend itself, war crimes do not justify war crimes against civilians. Chemical weapons are not justified. Thus far, half the dead are women and children. Here is a summary from a Jewish perspective. If you dismiss these concerns, I question your moral circle, and whose lives you value. 

 

If you believe this conflict does not affect you, and thus, you should not be involved, understand that unless there is a sea change movement for ceasefire, it will involve you. Two historically oppressed worldwide faith groups, Jewish and Muslim, are both feeling attacked right now, and are using the rhetoric of holy war. Massive protests are happening worldwide. In the opinion of one historian of Palestine, "Jewish State, through its policies of occupation, apartheid & ethnic cleansing, is leading to more dead Jews in Israel and more anti-Jewish hate abroad than any other force today". Attacked people do not show mercy. 

Here is the trolley problem:

But you need not only watch. What can you do?

Use your connections, media, and social media to push your country's leaders to call for de-escalation and ceasefire. This costs you nothing but time, and a large organization like EA could have sway with American and European powers. As long as America and Europe support Israeli attacks on Gaza, Israel will continue with impunity, and the conflict will escalate. 

 

I sure hope I am wrong. 

Comments7


Sorted by Click to highlight new comments since:

I have only limited resources with which to do good. If I'm not doing good directly through a full-time job, I budget 20% of my income toward doing as much good as possible, and then I don't worry about it after that. If I spend time and money on advocating for a ceasefire, that's time and money that I can't spend on something else.

If you ask me my opinion about whether Israel should attack Gaza, I'd say they shouldn't. But I don't know enough about the issue to say what should be done about it, and I doubt advocacy on this issue would be very effective—"Israel and Palestine should stop fighting" has been more or less the consensus position among the general public for ~70 years, and it still hasn't happened, and I doubt anything I do will have an impact on the same scale as a donation to a GiveWell top charity.

To convince me to advocate for a ceasefire, you have to argue not just that it's good, but that it's the best thing I could be doing. All you've said is that it's good. Why is it the best thing that I could be doing? I'd like this post better if you said more about why it's the best thing. (I doubt I'd end up agreeing, but I appreciate when people make the argument.)

Thanks for taking the time to reply! And thanks for acknowledging that it's a good thing to advocate for a ceasefire.

Here is my rationale for it being the best thing:

  1. I know it is naive and simplistic to say, but war kills and peace saves lives, no matter the circumstance, parties, or reason for the conflict. If we believe that every human life is valued equally, saving the lives of even the most egregious combatants is worthwhile. 
  2. A ceasefire would mitigate further deaths in Palestine, right now. True, protests to end the conflict haven't been effective for three quarters of a century, but I don't understand how it is an argument for not trying to end the acute crisis, while hospitals are being shut down. 
  3. Escalation of this conflict is highly possible, in my opinion. I am sorry to repeat this part of the post, but two historically oppressed people are feeling attacked, worldwide. It is hard to play fair when you are feeling attacked, oppressed, downtrodden. It increases the risk of dehumanizing the other side, and illegal war strategies, like chemical weapons, attacks on hospitals and social infrastructure, cutting off supply lines, etc.  Most worrisome, is the people who are feeling oppressed don't just live in Palestine and Israel; the conflict runs the risk of scaling up fast. Hate crimes are already happening in America. The Biden administration is already talking of war
  4. Regarding time, I am only suggesting you share protests for ceasefire on social media, if you are not doing so already. This takes seconds, considerably less than the time it took you to earn the 20% of your income that you are donating (kudos to you, btw). It takes so little time, I am suggesting you can both advocate for ceasefire in addition to the good you do, without impact on you QoL. 
  5. I don't think I am exaggerating when I suggest your efforts could help to save thousand, maybe millions. Not you alone, of course, but as I indicated in my other reply, as part of a movement. I also believe in the ripple effect - if you share your opinion on social media, people who respect and value your opinion may change their mind on the matter, and share calls for a ceasefire to their connections. 
  6. If I can summarize, seconds of your time may have both impact for thousands of people in Palestine right now, and advocating for peace might prevent WWIII. It might not, but what is the downside in trying? 

'Use your connections, media, and social media to push your country's leaders to call for de-escalation and ceasefire. This costs you nothing but time' - what concretely do you suggest, for me and people like me? (I'm an ordinary person living in the UK). I think what usually stops me from taking particular action at times like this is a sense that nothing I can do will matter. I could post on social media that I want the conflict to stop, but I don't think anyone influential will notice or care.

I don't mean this as an excuse, I just get really frustrated by calls to action that are not concrete, because I really take on board the moral force but I don't actually know how to do something about it, and my time and energy isn't infinite. 

Thanks for your reply; I may be naive, but I think even engaging in the conversation is a start. Even by replying to this post helps it to be seen and considered.

I think that like you, every ‘ordinary person’ downplays their role. Human rights movements, including civil rights, anti-apartheid, and suffrage all happened because of actions of ordinary people. Sure, by yourself you may not have massive influence, but if you share with your social group, your friends and family may pick it up and share with their social group. I agree that time and energy aren’t infinite - I don’t see myself having the time to join one of the street demonstrations, for example, but retweeting pleas for a ceasefire takes seconds.

For what it’s worth, I also take on board the moral force, and feel generally helpless. It is the reason why I am going to these various forums to which I belong, to try and gain traction. Sharing, upvoting, and commenting on this post would also help, as cheesy as the ask may be. Thank you

Is there any sound, rational argument against calling for a ceasefire?

Not engaging in politics only upholds the status quo of structural power

LiaH
-2
0
1

Silence is complicity.

More from LiaH
38
LiaH
· · 5m read
Curated and popular this week
 ·  · 12m read
 · 
Economic growth is a unique field, because it is relevant to both the global development side of EA and the AI side of EA. Global development policy can be informed by models that offer helpful diagnostics into the drivers of growth, while growth models can also inform us about how AI progress will affect society. My friend asked me to create a growth theory reading list for an average EA who is interested in applying growth theory to EA concerns. This is my list. (It's shorter and more balanced between AI/GHD than this list) I hope it helps anyone who wants to dig into growth questions themselves. These papers require a fair amount of mathematical maturity. If you don't feel confident about your math, I encourage you to start with Jones 2016 to get a really strong grounding in the facts of growth, with some explanations in words for how growth economists think about fitting them into theories. Basics of growth These two papers cover the foundations of growth theory. They aren't strictly essential for understanding the other papers, but they're helpful and likely where you should start if you have no background in growth. Jones 2016 Sociologically, growth theory is all about finding facts that beg to be explained. For half a century, growth theory was almost singularly oriented around explaining the "Kaldor facts" of growth. These facts organize what theories are entertained, even though they cannot actually validate a theory – after all, a totally incorrect theory could arrive at the right answer by chance. In this way, growth theorists are engaged in detective work; they try to piece together the stories that make sense given the facts, making leaps when they have to. This places the facts of growth squarely in the center of theorizing, and Jones 2016 is the most comprehensive treatment of those facts, with accessible descriptions of how growth models try to represent those facts. You will notice that I recommend more than a few papers by Chad Jones in this
LintzA
 ·  · 15m read
 · 
Introduction Several developments over the past few months should cause you to re-evaluate what you are doing. These include: 1. Updates toward short timelines 2. The Trump presidency 3. The o1 (inference-time compute scaling) paradigm 4. Deepseek 5. Stargate/AI datacenter spending 6. Increased internal deployment 7. Absence of AI x-risk/safety considerations in mainstream AI discourse Taken together, these are enough to render many existing AI governance strategies obsolete (and probably some technical safety strategies too). There's a good chance we're entering crunch time and that should absolutely affect your theory of change and what you plan to work on. In this piece I try to give a quick summary of these developments and think through the broader implications these have for AI safety. At the end of the piece I give some quick initial thoughts on how these developments affect what safety-concerned folks should be prioritizing. These are early days and I expect many of my takes will shift, look forward to discussing in the comments!  Implications of recent developments Updates toward short timelines There’s general agreement that timelines are likely to be far shorter than most expected. Both Sam Altman and Dario Amodei have recently said they expect AGI within the next 3 years. Anecdotally, nearly everyone I know or have heard of who was expecting longer timelines has updated significantly toward short timelines (<5 years). E.g. Ajeya’s median estimate is that 99% of fully-remote jobs will be automatable in roughly 6-8 years, 5+ years earlier than her 2023 estimate. On a quick look, prediction markets seem to have shifted to short timelines (e.g. Metaculus[1] & Manifold appear to have roughly 2030 median timelines to AGI, though haven’t moved dramatically in recent months). We’ve consistently seen performance on benchmarks far exceed what most predicted. Most recently, Epoch was surprised to see OpenAI’s o3 model achieve 25% on its Frontier Math
Omnizoid
 ·  · 5m read
 · 
Edit 1/29: Funding is back, baby!  Crossposted from my blog.   (This could end up being the most important thing I’ve ever written. Please like and restack it—if you have a big blog, please write about it). A mother holds her sick baby to her chest. She knows he doesn’t have long to live. She hears him coughing—those body-wracking coughs—that expel mucus and phlegm, leaving him desperately gasping for air. He is just a few months old. And yet that’s how old he will be when he dies. The aforementioned scene is likely to become increasingly common in the coming years. Fortunately, there is still hope. Trump recently signed an executive order shutting off almost all foreign aid. Most terrifyingly, this included shutting off the PEPFAR program—the single most successful foreign aid program in my lifetime. PEPFAR provides treatment and prevention of HIV and AIDS—it has saved about 25 million people since its implementation in 2001, despite only taking less than 0.1% of the federal budget. Every single day that it is operative, PEPFAR supports: > * More than 222,000 people on treatment in the program collecting ARVs to stay healthy; > * More than 224,000 HIV tests, newly diagnosing 4,374 people with HIV – 10% of whom are pregnant women attending antenatal clinic visits; > * Services for 17,695 orphans and vulnerable children impacted by HIV; > * 7,163 cervical cancer screenings, newly diagnosing 363 women with cervical cancer or pre-cancerous lesions, and treating 324 women with positive cervical cancer results; > * Care and support for 3,618 women experiencing gender-based violence, including 779 women who experienced sexual violence. The most important thing PEPFAR does is provide life-saving anti-retroviral treatments to millions of victims of HIV. More than 20 million people living with HIV globally depend on daily anti-retrovirals, including over half a million children. These children, facing a deadly illness in desperately poor countries, are now going
Relevant opportunities