This is a linkpost for https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3830681
Background: The previous best-performing malaria vaccine in trials has ~55% efficacy
55·8% (97·5% confidence interval [CI], 51-60) efficacy over 12 months in African children.
Findings: 450 children were randomised to receive the R21/MM vaccine or a control rabies vaccine[...] Vaccine efficacy (VE) was 74% (95% CI, 63-82) and 77% (95% CI, 67-84) in the low- and high-dose adjuvant groups, respectively. At 1 year, VE remained high at 77% (95% CI, 67-84) in the high-dose adjuvant group
More information/summarization on Derek Lowe's blog.
I think this is potentially very significant news - i’m hoping to write a more detailed post once I’ve looked into it more but a previous 35% effective vaccine was found to be only marginally less cost effective than LLIN nets in preventing malaria spread - a 75% effective (and cheap!) vaccine has at least the potential to shoot to the top of our list of most effective global health and poverty interventions, to the extent that we may want to think about pooling EA funds towards the project (perhaps creating a special EA malaria vaccination fund)
Hi Alasdair I would love to read the source for the cost effectiveness claim about the less effective vaccine if you know where it come from?
I read Derek Lowe's post about it earlier today, and it only says that they're now going into Phase III. Knowing next to nothing about vaccine distribution or malaria, I wonder: if that 77% number holds up, what can we expect the next decade or two to look like, malaria-wise? Clearly 77% isn't quite 100%; will people risk it and forgo bed nets and antimalarials? How likely is it that boosters will be required every few years? How much will this cost? Etc. etc. Anyone care to share their informed guesses at how this will go?