Comments
A preliminary estimate, and a request for better ones.
Summary
I believe the standard literature estimates for the number of DALYs attributable to a case of stunting are too low, largely because they don’t account for the long term effects. This means that childhood nutritional interventions that reduce the prevalence of stunting may be substantially more cost-effective than previously believed.
Epistemic status
Exploratory and back-o...
I cannot speak for all EA folks; here's a line of reasoning I'm patching together from the "AGI-never is unrealistic" crowd.
Most AI research isn't explicitly geared towards AGI; while there are a few groups with that stated goal (for instance, DeepMind), most of the AI community wants to solve the next least difficult problem in a thousand subdomains, not the more general AGI problem.
So while peak-performance progress may be driven by the few groups pushing for general capability, for the bulk of the field "AGI development" is just not what they do. Which means, if all the current AGI groups stop working on it tomorrow, "regular" AI research still pushes forward.
One scenario for "everyone avoids generality very hard while still solving as many problems as possible" is the Comprehensive AI Services framework. That is one pathway, not without safety concerns.
However, as Richard Ngo argues, "Open-ended agentlike AI seems like the most likely candidate for the first strongly superhuman AGI system."
To sum up:
A separate line of reasoning argues that no one will ever admit (in time) we're close enough to AGI that we should stop for safety reasons; so that everyone can claim "we're not working on AGI, just regular capabilities" until it's too late.
In that scenario, stopping AGI research amounts to stopping/slowing down AI research at large, which is also a thing being discussed!
That's very interesting, I will follow up on those links, and the other links I have received in comments from other helpful people.
Huh, Eric Drexler is one of the authors, the same one that popularized nanotechnology back when I was a teen, I think...
Thanks.
The very same, yes!