6. Smarter than us

Transformative artificial intelligence may well be developed this century. If it is, it may begin to make many significant decisions for us, and rapidly accelerate changes like economic growth. Are we set up to deal with this new technology safely?

As we try to think about these and other difficult questions, how should we update our views? Bayes' rule is a theory designed just for this: it can help us to think more clearly about how to think clearly.