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Applied to [Linkpost] Michael Huemer on the case for Bayesian statistics 1mo ago

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Applied to Why GiveWell should use complete uncertainty quantification 3mo ago

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Applied to Bayes' Theorem explained 1y ago

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Applied to Anecdotes Can Be Strong Evidence and Bayes Theorem Proves It 1y ago

**Bayes' Theorem **(also known as **Bayes' Rule** or **Bayes' Law)Law**) is a law of probability that describes the proper way to incorporate new evidence into prior probabilities to form an updated probability estimate. It is commonly regarded as the foundation of consistent rational reasoning under uncertainty. Bayes' Theorem is named after Reverend Thomas Bayes, who proved the theorem in 1763.

~~See also: ~~~~Bayesian probability~~~~, ~~~~Priors~~~~, ~~~~Likelihood ratio~~~~, ~~~~Belief update~~~~, ~~~~Probability and statistics~~~~, ~~~~Epistemology~~~~, ~~~~Bayesianism~~

Alexander Kruel (2010) A guide to Bayes’ theorem – A few links,

*Alexander Kruel’s Blog*, February 27.Arbital (2021) Bayes’ rule: Guide

~~to Bayes' Rule~~~~An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes' Theorem~~~~by Eliezer Yudkowsky~~- ,
*Arbital*.Bonilla, Oscar (2009) Visualizing

~~Bayes'~~Bayes theorem~~by~~,*Oscar*~~Bonilla~~ *Bonilla’s Blog*, May 1.Joyce, James (2003)

~~Using~~Bayes’ theorem,*The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy*, June 28 (updated 12 August 2021).Oracle Aide (2012) A Venn pie (using Venn pies to illustrate

~~Bayes' theorem~~~~by~~~~oracleaide~~~~A Guide to~~Bayes’~~Theorem – A few links~~~~by Alexander Kruel~~~~Bayes' Theorem~~theorem),*Oracle Aide*, December 26.Wikipedia

~~Joyce, James. 2003.~~(2002) Bayes’ theorem~~. In Edward Zalta (ed.)~~,, April 18 (updated 3 August 2021).~~Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy~~Wikipedia~~Wikipedia. 2016a.~~Wikipedia (2004) Base rate fallacy,

*Wikipedia*, June 17 (updated 17 June 2021).~~Wikipedia. 2016b.~~Yudkowsky, Eliezer S. (2003)

~~False positive paradox~~An intuitive explanation of Bayes’ theorem,*Eliezer S. Yudkowsky’s Website*, (updated 4 June 2006).

Copied LW's tag and added a couple of sources from EA Concepts — needs reformatting.

22y

Great, thanks.

**Bayes' Theorem **(also known as Bayes' Rule or Bayes' Law) is a law of probability that describes the proper way to incorporate new evidence into prior probabilities to form an updated probability estimate. It is commonly regarded as the foundation of consistent rational reasoning under uncertainty. Bayes' Theorem is named after Reverend Thomas Bayes, who proved the theorem in 1763.

*See also: *Bayesian probability, Priors, Likelihood ratio, Belief update, Probability and statistics, Epistemology, Bayesianism

Bayes' theorem commonly takes the form:

P(A|B)=P(B|A)P(A)P(B)where A is the proposition of interest, B is the observed evidence, P(A) and P(B) are prior probabilities, and P(A|B) is the posterior probability of A.

With the posterior odds, the prior odds and the likelihood ratio written explicitly, the theorem reads:

P(A|B)P(¬A|B)=P(A)P(¬A)⋅P(B|A)P(B|¬A)- Arbital Guide to Bayes' Rule
- An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes' Theorem by Eliezer Yudkowsky
- Visualizing Bayes' theorem by Oscar Bonilla
- Using Venn pies to illustrate Bayes' theorem by oracleaide
- A Guide to Bayes’ Theorem – A few links by Alexander Kruel
- Bayes' Theorem, Wikipedia
- Joyce, James. 2003. Bayes’ theorem. In Edward Zalta (ed.),
*Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy*. - Wikipedia. 2016a. Base rate fallacy.
- Wikipedia. 2016b. False positive paradox.

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Created by Aaron Gertler at 2y

Great, thanks.