Arturo Macias

Economist, Risk Manager @ Banco de España
-23 karmaJoined Aug 2022Working (6-15 years)


I am an Economist working at the Financial Risk Department of Banco de España (Spanish Central Bank). I was born in 1977 and I have recently finished my PhD Thesis (See ORCID webpage: ).

How I can help others

Risk Management, banking regulation, energy and commodities, mechanism design.


If you are right for a while we have the recipe for population stabilization. Too good to be true!

In the long run, of course, Darwin always bring back Malthus.

Do we have a curve of the stress intensity of stress of mother cows after separation from the calf (at least by age of calf). I would try to identify neural indicators of stress (you need to map stress signals between humans and cows), and graph them under different circuntances. 

More generally, a full predictive model of bovine stress could be useful to assess what can be done to measure and improve the cow conditions (how better is a free range vs. a farmed cow). 

In my perspective, there exists a significant disparity between “intensive animal farming” and other forms of animal utilization. Animals enduring their lives in stressful, overcrowded, and unsanitary environments, often subjected to mutilation and neglect, represent a distinct horror that humanity has introduced to the world. EA utilitarian perspective allows for graduated animalism (see here).

Here I put the abstract: the post was a little bit too long:

On the contrary, the effective proposal for the high corporate owner’s aristocracy is: i) the preservation of their own existence with a sustainable birth rate, a sense of social purpose and focus on wealth preservation, ii) support for a republican corporate governance inclusive of all stakeholders, and in the case of platforms, designed to foster a competitive ecology, iii) genuine altruism in the use of political influence, iv) the use of business surplus more for conspicuous (and effective!) altruism than for conspicuous consumption or display. Let it be clear, however, that utilitarianism recommends moderation, never asceticism.

I wrote this thinking in a case like yours. I hope it can be useful to you:

The agenda setting problem in my view is imposible to solve. Read the second paper (the ssrn pre print “the ideal political workflow”.

As long as voting in arbitrary “words” spaces is allowed, all our mathematical models are simply treading water.

My opinion on SV-PAYW, is that as a voting system is more or less as good as anything can be. But the structuring of voting spaces is more important than the voting system.

Fascinanting work, while I think that too much work is spent on nuclear winter, and not enough in the far more likely (and far more tractable) problem of the impact of Electromagnetic Pulses. Nuclear Winter scenarios probably would imply such breakdown of social order that not much can be done

On the other hand, if EMPs are devastating enough, even a small nuclear war can leave a good percentage of our infrastructure destroyed. EMP is a supercatastrophic (but non existential risk) that in my view has the best cost-benefit ratio in the entire spectrum of Global risks. It is also a risk specially suited for engineers, because you need a deep understanding of electromagnetism and electric technology.

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