oh wow great find. I did not see that in searching the forum for it, as I figured the poster would include the title of the study in the text. - thank you !! happy to see someone else confirming that this is a potentially significant study, at least in UBI world.

Thank you for your insights Matthew, that all makes a lot of sense and helps me understand.

I wonder if there is an income bracket low enough in the US, where UBI focused just for that group, would have net positive impact. (This study was $29,900 average household income for the participants.) Or, if there is going to be a net negative for UBI in the US just no matter... even before getting detailed about potential counter-factual scenarios.

Funny that UBI seems to do better than more targeted approaches, in low-income countries... but in high-income countries, even for the poorest within those countries, more targeted approaches may be the better option.

Great link, helpful indeed, thank you. 

(Way better than Scientific American's unnuanced dismissal of RCTs / "hierarchy of evidence" in general.)

If anyone happens to ever read this post in the distant future... I'd like to say, my "side point" at the end of this, was poorly thought out / poorly written / unkind.

Also, this post as a whole could have been framed a little better. I see some 'background' ideas that I could have included for better context, for one.

But in general I think it's better to leave up eh writings than delete it, so I'm not going to edit or delete this.

Appreciate that you got me thinking slightly more hopeful about AI, in your anecdotes that built into your last paragraph. Thank you!

As a side note, I also appreciate your quick point... about men possibly being disproportionately affected by some incoming negatives. -- I am worried about our current misunderstandings of male distress; and how these already existing problems could be exacerbated by AI, as you mention. Thanks for bringing this up.

• If you are not liking that one study, because it doesn't do a risk-benefit for both sides... then just refer to the other studies I link more prominently to, which do.
   
• If you think it is "terrible reasoning" to not do a risk-benefit of both sides, before making explicit or implicit statements... we are certainly on the same page... This is my issue with EAG's recommendation. 
   
• Handstands are not in the same ballpark as hospitalization for permanent heart damage. Perhaps I take this more seriously because I know people this happened to. Just like I also know people who died from covid. -- Let's keep on top of the available risk-benefit basics, and realize that the situation today is much different than 1, 2, and 3 years ago. 
  
  Also, yes, this is just a little fine-print statement from EAG, but I see the same statements and logic elsewhere, it seems embedded.
   
• Thank you Monica for taking some time out of your day to engage with me and my ideas and links, and for keeping an eye on the viewpoints we have in common, our similarities. I appreciate you. And I think you are making good points.

That's cool. Thanks for letting me know Eli.

I think it's better in the less specific wording you changed it to. 

On the other hand, I think the updated statement would be best interpreted as, a recommendation to get double-vaccinated AND boosted. Which I don't think there is evidence for, personally.

But what do I know, I'm not a particularly well-educated EA. And I could certainly be wrong.

In other words: I do think the wording now is better; but you probably shouldn't care too much what I think anyways :P

(Fwiw, I did also just mention in separate comment, I was a little too combative ((especially at the end)) in tone. I need to do a separate post on these "side thoughts" with much more nuance and evidence.  And with the overarching theme being that I love EA / CEA, EA people, etc.)

I first thought it's a slight improvement, as it's a little less specific.

On the other hand, I believe being "up to date with WHO-approved vaccines" probably is best interpreted as being double-vaccinated AND boosted. Which I disagree with more than the original phrasing.

I don't see even slight evidence that this is a good recommendation, certainly not for healthy young men... but even for other demographics as well. (keeping in mind natural immunity backdrop, and recent vs old strains backdrop... and then comparing slight risks both ways)

(Also, I agree with you, that my "side thoughts" at the end were a little combative, and need further exploration and evidence, and thus may have been better suited for a separate post. Good point.)

• I agree with you, that it may be, that the benefits of vaccination outweigh risks, for population as a whole. 
  
  Please also narrow in to my actual point, which is that for large demographics, it's not a good idea to now get double-vaccinated. Whereas, EAG recommends all attendees to get double vaccinated. (Or at least they did; they seem to have changed their wording just now as a result of this post.)
  
  You want to talk about other demographics, or even the population as a whole?  Let's do it, as an additional topic. As I don't see good risk-benefit analysis, with general background of natural immunity, etc, for other age groups. And am curious to know more. Although, again, this would be a separate topic from what I am stating above.
   
• The countries that have advised against double-vaccination, in my link, were advising against Moderna, which indeed is an mrna vaccine. Think you need to click that link.
   
• " It slows down transmission " - this was definitely true in the past. I'm not sure if someone with natural immunity (almost everyone), who now gets double-vaccinated, will be substantially slowing down transmission, over what they were already doing. Source needed.
   
• "It also reduces severity of symptoms for those who are vaccinated and go get the virus" -- even for the 90% of people who have natural immunity... the oldish formula, double-vaccination will do this today? I don't disbelieve you. But again, source needed.
   
• The booster article: I understand your point on mandate vs. recommendation. Mandates would certainly be much worse. The main point here is just that it's probably wise to NOT mandate OR recommend, for all demographics.

Bro they just changed that statement now, seemingly from me posting this? Idk.

Look:

https://web.archive.org/web/20221222171814/https://www.effectivealtruism.org/ea-global/events/ea-global-london-2023

"we recommend attendees to be double-vaccinated with WHO-approved vaccines."