Not a philosopher, but I have overlapping interests.
I suspect a better way to approach topic selection is to find a paper you get excited about, and ask "how can I improve on this research by 10%?" This stops you from straying wildly off of the path of "respectable and achievable academic research".
Oh, great! Your post looks very helpful!
Oh nice. Socratic irony. I like it.
Thanks for the suggestion. I don't have a super clear idea of what the main issues/chunks actually are at the moment, but I'll work towards that.
Very cute. 🙂
I'm curious about your thinking on colour symbolism. On the one hand, ravens are smart and crafty, so "black bird = smart/strategic bird" makes sense. But on the other hand, blue is kinda an EA colour, so at first I thought the blue bird would represent EA. Why did you choose to make the lay-bird a blue bird?
Thank you. I have corrected the mistake.
The relationship between Lindy, Doomsday, and Copernicus is as follows:
This is brilliant!
I think we can actually do an explicit expected-utility and value-of-information calculation here:
Can I get the data please?
It just occurred to me that you don't actually need to convert the forecaster's odds to bits. You can just take the ceiling of the odds themselves:
Which is more useful for calibrating in the low-confidence range.
Additional note: BitBets is a proper scoring rule, but not strictly proper. If you round report odds which are rounded up to the next power of two you will achieve the same scores in expectation.