A 16-year-old teen deciding if he should devote his career in AI s-risks discussions. Needing information on AI development and AI sentience.
Yes, I have read those and accepted the truth lots of people believe human level AGI will come in 20 years, and it's just a matter of time. But I don't know why people are so confident on this. Do people think the AI algorithms now are well enough to do most of the tasks on earth "theoretically", and what we need are only fast computing speed?
Thanks a lot by the sharing the article (This is not the same as I saw on 80000). So Dr.Lewis thought about"replacing a worse doctor". There are some factors that would change the QALYs number: 1.Mentioned in Lewis's article, different types of doctors contribute differently. Such as maybe doctors who treat cold don't make big impact(because it's easy, with SOP), but who treat cancers well do. 2.How bad are bad doctors? 3.The value of "curing a disease", sometimes, curing a cancer doesn't mean you prevent a person dying from cancer, because he might get another cancer in a few years. The positive impact relies on "reducing suffering", but curing disease may only delay the suffering, especially for the seniors.(unless you die with less suffering, some dying ways are more suffering, like advanced cancers) If you consider the impact of patients' relatives, prolonging patients' lifespan might be good if their relatives feel sad about the patient's death.
See this post before: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/vHsFTanptoRa4gEh8/asking-for-important-college-major-advices-should-i-study
In short, doctor seems like to have a positive impact to the society, though the impact may be little. But it's better than working as a software engineer in a big tech company. If I decide to work in global health area, maybe I should study medicine to have a backup plan working as a doctor(not everyvody can be a researcher). But medicine requires high-time training and worse exit option to other jobs.
So the prediction experts made are all pureb"subjective" predictions? I think there are some logical thinking/arguments or maybe like fermi estimation to explain how he estimates the number unless it's mostly intuition.