How many percentage of ability are AI at current compared to the ability required for human-like intelligence? I heard some people in EA think it's already more than 50%, which shocked me a lot. I'm an definitely AI outsider, I can't imagine how AI conductsvhard tasks(such as do scientific research or social interaction). Most EA claim that since AI has developed in an explanatory speed, so it might reach superintelligence, but it's not very persuasive to me. Because for me AI now seems really far from human-like intelligence, though GPT beat us in some tests, but it is very weak in some types of tasks I'd like to see more articles talking why the greatest AI system now(maybe GPT) has the potential of being human-level AGI, and why fast computing speed, algorithms=AI can be able to do most of things on earth. Better with concrete examples not just abstract algorithms.
Yes, I have read those and accepted the truth lots of people believe human level AGI will come in 20 years, and it's just a matter of time. But I don't know why people are so confident on this. Do people think the AI algorithms now are well enough to do most of the tasks on earth "theoretically", and what we need are only fast computing speed?