All of Matt Goodman's Comments + Replies

If you press a footnote link in a post and the footnote is hidden in the 'View more footnotes' collapsable list the page scrolls to a footnote you can't see. I found it confusing until I realised you have to press 'view more footnotes' to expand them. It would be good if it opened automatically when you follow a footnote link

Sure. I've written a short summary and my reaction to it, and made it a linkpost

My sincere apologies, I had missed that it had been updated! V. Embarrassing. Thankyou for doing that

Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you want EVF to do, but when I go to the page that you linked to I see a list of trustees with bios at the bottom of it. (This doesn't solve the "contact" problem, but it does solve "who they are and what they do".)

I thought the bottom half was an OK response.- 'We have long term plans and value healthy funding' (paraphrasing)

I think this hints at a divide between EA and progressive thinking. EAs: we only have a set amount of money for food causes, we need to use it effectively Progressives: just allocate more money to good causes (like treating AIDS) and less on bad causes (like defense spending)

Objections to 'value of my time arguments'

I often hear EA/ rationalists saying something like 'it's not worth spending an hour to save £20, if your hourly rate of pay is over £20/ hour. I think this is wrong, but I might not understand the argument.

It could be understood as a hypotherical argument, you COULD earn this much in an hour, as a reference point to help you understand the value of your time. This hypothetical reference point isn't really useful, when I have the very real figure of my total balance, and upcoming outgoings to consider, and the... (read more)

I agree with that rough claim. And I liked the rest of the blog.

I guess I do see people who are struggling behaving badly sometimes. I just don't think it's in any more frequent than the general population. Or I see sometimes see them using the fact they're struggling to justify their bad behaviour, and I don't buy that.

2
Severin
1y
I think a more steelmanned version of my initial claim would be that there's a particular type of struggling that corresponds to low-integrity behavior, and that some aspects of current EA culture make it more likely for people to struggle in that particular way. Even (and maybe especially) if they are generally caring and well-meaning and honestly dedicated to the cause. I think "scarcity mindset" is an okay handle. A postrationalist friend also pointed out that what I'm talking about corresponds to Buddhism's realm of hungry ghosts. In modern psychological reinterpretations of Buddhist mythology, that describes a mode of existence people can get stuck in when they develop the wrong kind of rumination. Basically, always being very aware of lack and what's missing and being desperate to fill that up. I'm not sure yet how useful either of these handles will turn out - but yet again, this whole post is an intellectual work in progress and I only reposted it here because people on Facebook found it surprisingly insightful.
3
Severin
1y
Yup, I definitely overgeneralized here and may be completely off. I think there's something where I'm pointing at, and this helps me clarify my thinking. So thanks. Generally: I by no means want to demonize anyone for struggling. To a significant extent, I buy into a social model of mental health, and mostly see one person's struggling as a symptom of their whole surrounding (social and other) being diseased. My intention behind this post was to point out some ways in which I think EA is suboptimally organized. The rough claim I was aiming for is this: "It's easier to be a saint in paradise, so let's make EA a bit more paradisic by fixing some of our norms."

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oGdCtvuQv4BTuNFoC/good-things-that-happened-in-ea-this-year

Is there any consensus on who's making things safer, and who isn't? I find it hard to understand the players in this game, it seems like AI safety orgs and the big language players are very similar in terms of their language, marketing and the actual work they do. Eg openAI talk about ai safety in their website and have jobs on the 80k job board, but are also advancing ai rapidly. Lately it seems to me like there isn't even agreement in the ai safety sphere over what work is harmful and what isn't (I'm getting that mainly from the post on closing the lightcone office)

2
aogara
1y
I think your perception is spot on. The labs that are advancing towards AGI the fastest also profess to care about safety and do research on safety. Within the alignment field, many people believe that many other people's research agendas are useless. There are varying levels of consensus about different questions -- many people are opposed to racing towards AGI, and research directions like interpretability and eliciting latent knowledge are rarely criticized -- but in many cases, making progress on AI safety requires having inside view opinions about what's important and useful. 

Hi Howie, I'm getting back to this 3 months later. I don't think this feature has been added and I'd like to raise again that it would be good for transparency. The link to the CEA team page doesn't have bios for Tasha McCauley and Becca Kagan (who has since resigned from EVF, I guess it could be worth listing former board members). 

When EVF announced the new interim CEOs 3 months ago, I noted that there wasn't a bio for EVF's board members on their website, and that it was hard to find much information on Google. At this moment in time, it's the most upvoted comment on that post, with 35 upvoted and 29 agreements. Howie agreed to update the website, but as of now it doesn't look like anything has been added. 

I'd like to raise this again, it would be good to update EVF's website with board member bios for transparency, and maybe a contact email address. I like that this press rel... (read more)

This resonated with me. I get some internal strife and anxiety about posting on here. I think it's a combo of caring a lot about the kind of things being discussed here (suffering, global poverty, animal welfare, xrisk), and having thoughts about these things, and wanting to share them, but then finding the negative incentive of [being criticised in the comments] outweighs the positive incentives of [temporary status amongst strangers on the internet], plus some sort of [happiness at being able to express myself]. 

It seems for me the emotional drive t... (read more)

I was surprised to see Twitter noted as a good place to share thoughts, I think mainly because it's rare I hear anyone say a good word about Twitter. I don't use it, as my impressions of twitter are:

  • seems like a lot of toxic arguments, ad hominen attacks, straw man arguments etc etc unless you heavily filter to only be communicating with people who already agree with pretty much everything you say
  • the word limit is too short to be able to explain anything with nuance, which promotes more straw man arguments because commenters take the worst possible interpr
... (read more)
3
Nathan_Barnard
1y
EA twitter is great. 

I'm planning to write a piece on animal welfare, as part of that post it will help to post a picture of a dead animal. I'd like to have it blurred until users choose to see it, is there a way to do that? 

Side note: I can't see anything about this circumstance in the user manual or guide to norms.

7
JP Addison
1y
No, sorry, we don't support that. It sounds like a very reasonable use-case though, and I'll add it to our tech backlog. In the mean time, I recommend a link to an off-site image hosting service.

Your comment made me realise I'm actually talking about two different things:

  • When you can choose to end the pain at any point e.g.  exercise, the hand-in-cold-water experiment.
  • When you can't choose to end the pain, but you know that it will end soon with some degree of certainty. e.g. "medics will be here with morphine in 10 minutes", or "we can see the head, the baby's almost out".

I agree with you that having some kind of peer pressure or social credit for 'doing well' can help a person withstand pain. I'd imagine this has an effect on the hand-in-cold-water experiment, if you're doing it on your own vs as part of a trial with onlookers.

sorry, I got your name wrong in my reply (changed now)! I'm going to look into my question further, and read some of https://reducing-suffering.org/ you linked to. That's as a result of this post:)

I went through these experiences voluntarily and with the knowledge that I have the freedom to stop whenever I want. People suffering from painful disease, children dying of hunger, chickens being electrocuted to death, fish being asphyxiated to death - for these individuals, such experiences are a horrific reality, not an experiment

I think this is a very important distinction that should be given more emphasis. When I've experienced severe pain, the no.1 thought in my mind was "oh god make it stop". This makes complete sense if you think of pain as your b... (read more)

2
David Johnston
1y
I have the complete opposite intuition: equal levels of pain are harder to endure for equal time if you have the option to make them stop. Obviously I don’t disagree that pain for a long time is worse than pain for a short time. This intuition is driven by experiences like: the same level of exercise fatigue is a lot easier to endure if giving up would cause me to lose face. In general, exercise fatigue is more distracting than pain from injuries (my reference points being a broken finger and a cup of boiling water in my crotch - the latter being about as distractingly painful as a whole bunch of not especially notable bike races etc). Thinking a bit more: the boiling water actually was more intense for a few seconds, but after that it was comparable to bike racing. But also, all I wanted to do was run around shouting obscenities and given that I was doing exactly that I don’t recall the sense of being in conflict with myself, which is one of the things I find hard to deal with about pain. I don’t know that this scales to very intense pain. The only pain experience I’ve had notable enough to recall years later was e when I ran 70km without having done very much running to train for it - it hurt a lot I don’t have any involuntary pain experiences that compare to it (running + lack of preparation was important here - I’ve done 400km bike rides with no especially notable pain). This was voluntary in the sense that I could have stopped and called someone to pick me up, but that would have disqualified my team. One prediction I’d make is that holding my hand in an ice bucket with only myself for company would be much harder than doing it with other people where I’d be ashamed to be the first to pull it out. I don’t just mean I’d act differently - I mean I think I would actually experience substantially less psychological tension.

Hey Ren, this is a great post!

I share your intuition that reducing extreme suffering is the no.1 moral  imperative for humankind.

 What charities do you recommend, if that's what you value most? GiveWell recommended charities based on their own moral weights, which I don't think weight as reducing extreme suffering as highly as me.

Then there's many animal welfare  charities. And there's OPIS, which is the only charity I know that explicitly targets extreme human suffering. Are there any others that I'm missing?

5
Ren Ryba
1y
Thanks for your positive feedback :) I haven't thought too hard about specific charities. Since I work for a relatively young charity startup, I don't take a very high salary and it wouldn't make sense to increase my salary just to donate. If I had a large amount of money to donate, I'd probably pick an animal advocacy charity with a strong, well-backed theory of change that focuses on reforms that a) are large-scale and b) prevent high-intensity suffering. Examples of this might include charities working on cage-free hen reforms, the Better Chicken Commitment, or fish slaughter reform. I suspect Fish Welfare Initiative and Shrimp Welfare Project would also fare well from this perspective.  I haven't researched this question specifically, so there's a good chance my specific interventions/charities would change with further consideration. Since my day job is in animal advocacy, I'm less informed about human charities. Other people probably have better-informed opinions on human charities for preventing extreme suffering than I could. A fair few people have written on the EA Forum about the importance of preventing extreme suffering, so those people might have some well-informed recommendations.

My guess is that it wouldn't change much

Maybe not for most people reading the people reading the EA forum. I think if you take a serious look at the issues of animal suffering and farmed animal conditions, you'll probably  arrive at a number similar to  existing statistics on numbers of factory farmed animals.

But I think there's plenty of people who have motivated reasoning to doubt those statistics, or minimise the badness/factory-ness of a farm, or farming practice. For example, my extended family run a dairy farm. I remember when first reading... (read more)

Why aren't we protesting AI  acceleration in the street?

I'm not super up to date with the latest EA thinking on current AI capabilities. The takes I read on social media from Yudkowsky and the like are something along the lines of 'We're at a really dangerous time, various companies are engaged in arms race to make more and more powerful AIs with little regard to safety, and this will directly lead to humanity being wiped out by AGI in the near future'. For people really believe this to be true (especially if you live in San Fransico) - why aren't you... (read more)

3
JonCefalu
1y
Hi Matt,  this is a great idea and the closest thing I am aware of is the street-level protests which have been held by the Campaign to Stop Killer Robots.  Maybe you and other EAs would consider getting involved in some of their marches?  I haven't been able to join any as they weren't local to me, but I've donated to them and maybe you can too or you could march with them?   https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/

I feel uncomfortable with this kind of public character judgement of an alleged victim. Especially when it's presented without a source or evidence backing up the claim she's 'hella scary'

maybe 'social-justice-caring left' is a better term

3
Severin
1y
Whoopsie, I'm insufficiently aware of the English language conventions there. Thanks, changed.

I think using the term 'woke left' will be counter-productive to your aim of reaching out to politically left people. While 'woke' started as a term used by the left, I now see it being used almost exclusively by the right as a pejorative term for the left, and most politically left people I know would be annoyed at being called 'woke'.

3
Matt Goodman
1y
maybe 'social-justice-caring left' is a better term

What would that add? I think that would add speculation on to what is already speculation, and I'd think only the passing of time would be able to give feedback on whether the predictions turn out to be true. 

I guess it could give more information, if you sought out different people for the meta-predictions, than had made the original predictions. But then I'm not sure why you wouldn't just have these new people do the original prediction questions directly. 

I think this might be partly due to the complex structure (and subsequent re-structure) of CEA. 'CEA' used to be a dual name for both a legal entity and the community building organisation. 

I think this led me in the past to having a vague idea of what 'CEA' was, and thinking that the public-facing  Community Health Team was representing all of it and responsible for more than they were.

This is kind of a separate issue though, here I'd just like to say I'm grateful for the work the Community Health Team does, and don't want to distract from the discussion of the accusations made here.

Can you expand on what you dislike about the marketing? When looking at their website I was just dazzled at all the animations, my developer brain was trying to figure out how they worked ;)

Jason
1y21
10
0

At launch -- per the Gawker article -- their priorities seemed to include lining up a bunch of famous people (who may or may not have known they were involved...) and hiring a PR firm for a glizty launch with lots of meaningless buzzwords, but apparently not having any clue about what the organization would actually accomplish. That strikes me as a prime example of performative charity.

At present, the website is very well-done, but is awfully light on what the organization has accomplished. For example, the second project on their website is "Shield," acco... (read more)

Assuming that this is both useful and time or funding constrained, you could be selective in how you roll it out. Images of world leaders and high profile public figures seem most likely to be manipulated and would have the highest negative impact if many people were fooled. You could start there

1
Axel Svensson
1y
Thank you, perhaps the first priority should be to quickly operationalize timestamping of newly created content at news organizations. Perhaps even before publication, if they can be convinced to do so.

Props for taking the time to explain, even though you don't like it!

I'd like to be able to hide the amount of karma and agreement points a comment or post has. I think seeing how many people have upvoted a statement affects how likely I am to agree with or upvote that statement. I think it makes me more likely to vote in accordance with social agreement, rather than whether or not I think a statement is true or well written.   I'd like to be able to turn this off from time to time. Strongly downvoted comments should probably still be hidden.

I think the UI for voting could be improved in the following ways:

  • The arrows for voting on Karma point sideways, not up and down. It's not immediately clear which one is upvote and which one is downvote.
  •  The explanation text about voting (the one that explains Karma, agree/disagree and strong votes) only appears when you hover your mouse over the arrows. This means you never see it on mobile, where there's no mouse.
  • the hit boxes could be bigger for arrows on mobile.

The formatting toolbar doesn't appear until after you highlight text. This means you can only format text after you've written it - you can't for example, select bold and have your text appear in bold as you write it. This is something I find unintuitive. It took me a a few minutes of looking for the toolbar and googling how to do it before I realised the toolbar only appears when you highlight text. I'd like the formatting toolbar to always be on the page when I'm writing. 

I'd like to be able to highlight a word or phrase in text I'm writing and Ctrl-V a URL link directly into that phrase. This is something that other platforms, like Slack do.

Yes, you can highlight a phrase and bring up the toolbar to add a link, but being able to do it immediately through a well known keyboard shortcut is easier.

5
Rasool
1y
Ctrl+K is a pretty well-known shortcut, for example on Google Docs, and works here too

Thanks for writing this up. It'd be nice to have a paragraph of bio for each of the board members on ev's website. Google search didn't give me much for some of the board members.

8
Howie_Lempel
1y
Hi Matt - thanks for the suggestion. I agree that we should have a page like this. I’ve asked someone to take this on but we’ve got a lot of things to update at the moment so it won’t go up immediately. In the meantime, CEA’s team page has links to bios for most of the trustees here.

Are you planning to back-date each piece of content that you timestamp to the time it was created? If so, how hard is it to find the time of creation of pieces at the moment? This seems to be the very problem this initiative is planning to tackle (so I'm guessing it's at least somewhat hard) although I think the argument here is 'it will get harder in the future'.

The only alternative I can see is to add the timestamp of the time that the content is processed as part of this initiative. This might be easier than finding the creation date but it would probab... (read more)

4
Axel Svensson
1y
Let me clarify the cryptography involved: There is cryptographic signing, that lets Alice sign a statement X so that Bob is able to cryptographically verify that Alice claims X. X could for example be "Content Y was created in 2023". This signature is evidence for X only to the extent that Bob trusts Alice. This is NOT what I suggest we use, at least not primarily. There is cryptographic time-stamping, that lets Alice timestamp content X at time T so that Bob is able to cryptographically verify that content X existed before time T. Bob does not need to trust Alice, or anyone else at all, for this to work. This is what I suggest we use. Back-dating content is therefore cryptographically impossible when using cryptographic time-stamping. That is kind of the point; otherwise I wouldn't be convinced that the value of the timestamps would grow over time. To the extent we use cryptographic time-stamping, the argument here is 'it will be entirely impossible in the future'. However, cryptographic time-stamping and cryptographic signing can be combined in interesting ways: 1. We could sign first and then timestamp, achieving a cryptographic proof that in or before 2023, archive.org claimed that content X was created in 1987. This might be valuable if the organization or its cryptographic key at a later date were to be compromised, e.g. by corruption, hacking, or government overreach. Timestamps created after an organization is compromised can still be trusted: You can always know the content was created in or before 2023, even if you have reason to doubt a claim made at that time. 2. We could timestamp, then sign, then timestamp. This allows anyone to cryptographically verify that e.g. sometime between 2023-01-20 and 2023-01-30, Alice claimed that content X was created in 1987. This could be valuable if we later learn we have reason to distrust the organization before a certain date. Again, we will always know X was created before 2023-01-30, no matter anyone's trust

Update: FLI FAQ on the rejected grant proposal controversy.

Although I still think the original statement was not good, reading the FAQ and comments in the linked post have helped me have more empathy for the difficulties of releasing a PR when under public pressure to say something urgently. 

I think my tone here was too confrontational and demanding, and I'm sorry if that caused additional stress for FLI.

Thankyou to FLI for updating both the initial statement, and putting out the FAQ, which clears things up.

I don't think both words are accurate here. Crimea was illegally annexed, and 'invasion' to me means entering another country's territory.

My fundamental belief here is that the norms on a countries borders should be decided by referendum, and then respected (i.e. not invaded). 

The 2014 referendum was one month after Russia invaded Crimea. I wouldn't trust the results of it (a 96% result to join Russia is implausible), or really any referendum since, while Russia is still in control. So, I would think the latest and most authoritative piece of evidence... (read more)

-4
kbog
1y
If you think borders should be decided by referendum then you should endorse a substantive right to having a referendum in the first place. That implies that Crimea should be able to hold a referendum even if Kyiv refuses to allow it. See the link I provided to my other post discussing public opinion in Crimea. The result is plausible when considering that most pro-Ukraine Crimeans boycotted the vote (so true support was ~80%), but more importantly, ignoring Russia's untrustworthy referendum, polling data shows majority support for annexation. I have no doubt that in 1991 a slim majority of Crimeans wanted Ukraine to leave the USSR, but it's far from the best evidence we have about how Crimeans in 2014 felt about leaving Ukraine to join Russia.

I downvoted for the use of the word 'invading'. 'Invading' describes what Russia did to Crimea in 2014, 'retaking' would be a better word for this context.

As for self-determination, 54% of Crimieans voted for Ukrainian independence in the 1991 referendum. Since the 2014 invasion, Russia has probably imported so many citizens that the demographics have changed massively and this would skew any future referendum.

-5
kbog
1y

Thankyou for linking that. I'm glad FLI has issued that statement, and it reassures me somewhat. I'd still like to hear more detail of FLI's logic around this grant - why it was considered in the first place, what FLI's pipeline for considering grants is, at what stage Nya Dagblade was rejected, and why. (Hopefully the 'why' part is obvious, but it would be good to understand what information they received that changed their minds, that they didn't have in the first place).

....which makes no mention of the neo-nazi views of Nya Dagbladet, and does not condemn them. That section reads to me as almost an afterthought to their response, which is a rant about how Expo.se is unfairly criticising FLI, and how Nya Dagbladet is not neo-nazi.

Here's that quote in context:

We will continue to engage the broadest sample of humankind, whether or not we are criticized by anyone who questions our motives, or who may have their own agendas.  And in this effort, the Future of Life Institute stands and will always stand emphatically

... (read more)

It appears that a paragraph was added to the statement today:

Added Jan 16: Just to be absolutely unambiguous: FLI finds Nazi, neo-Nazi or pro-Nazi groups or ideologies despicable and would never knowingly support them. In case FLI’s past work, its website and the lifetime work, writing, and talks by FLI leadership left any doubt about that, we included this final sentence in our statement above just to be 100% clear: “the Future of Life Institute stands and will always stand emphatically against racism, bigotry, bias, injustice and discrimination at all

... (read more)

Taking both parts of that paragraph seriously, I think the statement is best read as saying (1) we condemn neo-nazism but (2) we're okay with partnering with neo-nazis if it helps achieve our goals.  I agree it would have been much better to specifically condemn neo-nazism by name, but I find the existence of (2) to be the most alarming part of the statement.

There's also a failure to reckon with how vile the material Nya Dagbladet has published is and instead legitimate it as an organization (e.g., look, they got $30K in public funding!).

Unless we actually are saying that talking with 'bad people' is automatically bad and something you should apologize to all your right thinking friends for having contaminated them with proximity to badness afterwards.

This is putting it very, very euphemistically, if you want to call 'offering $100,000 in funding to a neo-Nazi publication' ,'talking with bad people'.

Is there a principled argument that thinking about funding a group like that, and then changing your mind is bad?

Yes. Even if they thankfully never granted the money, the question remains - why... (read more)

I really can't express clearly how badly I think of FLI's non-apology

Why on earth would they think a neo-nazi publication would ever be a good thing to fund?

The Future of Life Institute makes no apologies for engaging with many people across the immensely diverse political spectrum, because our mission is so important that it needs broad support from all sectors of society

Why on earth would they put this in their response, rather than condemning neo-nazism?

@Tegmark

8
Matt Goodman
1y
Update: FLI FAQ on the rejected grant proposal controversy. Although I still think the original statement was not good, reading the FAQ and comments in the linked post have helped me have more empathy for the difficulties of releasing a PR when under public pressure to say something urgently.  I think my tone here was too confrontational and demanding, and I'm sorry if that caused additional stress for FLI. Thankyou to FLI for updating both the initial statement, and putting out the FAQ, which clears things up.

...rather than condemning neo-nazism?

There was this section:

And in this effort, the Future of Life Institute stands and will always stand emphatically against racism, bigotry, bias, injustice and discrimination at all times and in all forms. They are antithetical to our mission to safeguard the future of life and to advance human flourishing.

2
timunderwood
1y
I am confused. The bad thing would be if FLI funded them. FLI did not fund them due to things discovered due to due diligence. So FLI literally did nothing wrong, and literally has nothing to apologize for. Unless we actually are saying that talking with 'bad people' is automatically bad and something you should apologize to all your right thinking friends for having contaminated them with proximity to badness afterwards . Is there a principled argument that thinking about funding a group like that, and then changing your mind is bad?

Minor quibble, but this should be titled 'New Good things that happened in EA this year'.

There's already loads of existing good things happening, that shouldn't get forgotten about. I don't have the numbers, but I'd like to know- how many nets did AMF distribute? How many times did animal charities expose abuse and take companies to court to protect existing laws?

I know this stuff is happening, and it's great and we should hear more about existing, ongoing good work

I'd like to be able to bookmark comments, in the same way you can bookmark posts. There's a lot of really, really well thought out and written comments, in some cases containing just as much value as articles, and I'd like to be able to bookmark a comment to come back to. 

I'd argue this is even more important than bookmarking articles, because articles have tags and titles to search for, whereas comments don't, and it's easy to loose track of what article and what thread the one you're looking for is contained in.

1
Sharang Phadke
1y
Thanks Matt, noted!

I think floods often result in an increase in snakebites, due to both humans and  snakes seeking out the bits of land and houses that are above water. I'm linking this post about snakebites as a cause area, in case it's helpful.

1
OscarD
1y
Thanks, I hadn't read that post, very interesting! I did read in one of the review papers on flooding that there can be injuries from being confined with animals, but chose not to included it as I didn't see any data on it and my subjective impression was that this would not be as large an impact as the others (but this could be wrong, if anyone finds good info on the flood --> bites causal link I'd be keen to see it).

I agree. To take the distinctions of trust one step further - there's a difference between trust in  the intentions and judgements of people, and trust in the systems they operate in.

Like, I think you could be trusting of the intentions and judgement of EA leadership, but still recognise that people are human, and humans make mistakes, and that transparency and more open governance leads to more voices being heard in decision making processes, which leads to better decisions. It's the 'Wisdom of Crowds' kind of argument.

transparency and more open governance leads to more voices being heard in decision making processes, which leads to better decisions

Perhaps I'm just a die-hard technocrat, but I'm very unconvinced that this is actually true. Do we have any good examples either way?

1
Lin BL
1y
Agreed, particularly as bad bureaucracy could have bad results even if everyone has good intention and good judgement. For example, if someone makes the best decision possible given the information they have available, but it has unintended negative consequences as due to the way the organisation/system was set up they are missing key information which would have led to a different conclusion.
Load more