All of Michael Huang's Comments + Replies

Good to see more ideas on new charities.

Could you provide more details on this example idea:

Banning harmful practices (like genetic modification)

Charity Entrepreneurship produced a report on welfare focused gene modification back in 2019. Has there been a change of mind since then?

The donor is anonymous.

From the Wired article: "The temporary exhibit is funded until May by an anonymous donor..."

Thanks for all the comments.

Updated the post with a recent tweet from Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI:

"recalibrate" means "increase" obviously.

disappointing to see this six-week development. openai will continually decrease the level of risk we are comfortable taking with new models as they get more powerful, not the other way around.

John Culver's How We Would Know When China Is Preparing to Invade Taiwan is also worth reading.

China’s political strategy for unification has always had a military component, as well as economic, informational, legal, and diplomatic components. Most U.S. analysis frames China’s options as a binary of peace or war and ignores these other elements. At the same time, many in Washington believe that if Beijing resorts to the use of force, the only military option it would consider is invasion. This is a dangerous oversimplification. China has many options to

... (read more)

This describes three utopias. It makes sense to have several since everyone has differing definitions of utopia.

The 'Psychonauts' sound like the Hedonistic Imperative version of utopia:

The Psychonauts had formed the second most popular cluster. They endorsed hedonism as a theory of value, believing that the purpose of life is the elimination of suffering and the enjoyment of bliss.

2
Devin Kalish
1y
Yup! In this way it also has things in common with the mentioned "archipelago" utopia. Another example in this vein that I've heard good things about but haven't read is Ada Palmer's "Too Like the Lightning".

Toby Ord has written about the affectable universe, the portion of the universe that “humanity might be able to travel to or affect in any other way.”

I’m curious whether anyone has written about the affectable universe in terms of time.

  1. We can only affect events in the present and the future
  2. Events are always moving from the present (affectable) to the past (unaffectable)
  3. We should intervene in present events (e.g. reduce suffering) before these events move to the unaffectable universe

Maybe check out the term "light cone".

Thanks for your post, great advice.

Please ensure you include the book's title, author, and year/edition, as well as any other information requested by the library. If you're a university group organiser, it's likely helpful to note that you're with a university student group.

Maybe include the ISBN as well. For academic libraries, it's also helpful to say which students the book is relevant for. Peter Singer's books would be relevant for the Arts students studying philosophy, for example. Academic libraries can buy some extracurricular resources, but most o... (read more)

For community building, there's the International Suffering Abolitionists group. It hosts meetups, a Discord server and a section of EA Gather Town.

1
Yanay
2y
Thank you, I will read about them

"Invincible Wellbeing is a research organisation whose mission is to promote research targeting the biological substrates of suffering."

Appears on the 80,000 Hours Job Board

1
Yanay
2y
Thank you, I will read about it

(Edit: Accidentally posted a duplicate link.)

Aligned with whom? by Anton Korinek and Avital Balwit (2022) has a possible answer. They write that an aligned AI system should have

  • direct alignment with its operator, and
  • social alignment with society at large.

Some examples of failures in direct and social alignment are provided in Why we need a new agency to regulate advanced artificial intelligence: Lessons on AI control from the Facebook Files (Korinek, 2021).

We could expand the moral circle further by aligning AI with the interests of both human and non-huma... (read more)

The Tech Worker Handbook website has more information about Non-Disclosure Agreements (NDAs). It also cautions people from reading the website on a company device:

I do NOT advise accessing this from a company device. Your employer can, and will likely, track visits to a resource like this Handbook.

Business Insider's review of 36 NDAs in the tech industry:

Some NDAs say explicitly that the confidentiality provisions never sunset, effectively making them lifelong agreements...

More than two-thirds of workers who shared their agreements with Insider said they w

... (read more)

Thank you for posting this. Appreciate reading about his life and legacy.

Are there any links to the translations of David Pearce's works?

6
turchin
2y
There are two translation into Russian. One from 2009 in which Igor participated is here https://proza.ru/avtor/unau&book=4#4  But in 2020 a professional translation was made  and is available here https://ubq124.wordpress.com/2019/12/22/the-hedonistic-imperative-pdf/

Thanks for the comment.

It would focus on species that have the capacity for suffering and enjoyment, so not all species.

I agree it is a hugely ambitious project. Megaprojects are within the scope of EA and its funders.

If most wild animal lives have negative wellbeing, I think this kind of intervention would be preferable to the status quo or extinction.

1
Vgvt
2y
Theirs less than 10,000 known sponge species and only 3 known placazoa species, all remaining animal species have some form of nervous system. based on known species, the vast majority of those are arthropods, which have central nervous systems.

Thanks, I completely agree. David Pearce is the founder of this line of thought: editing and rewriting nature to reduce and eliminate involuntary suffering.

I have added a quotation to the post:

Like saving the drowning child in Singer’s thought experiment, now that gene drive technology is available, there is a choice between doing nothing and intervening to do good.

"In the post-CRISPR era, whether intelligent agents decide to preserve, reform, or phase out the biology of involuntary suffering will be an ethical choice."

David Pearce, Compassionate Biology

Many thanks for writing this essay. The history of technological restraint is fascinating. I never knew that Edward Teller wanted to design a 10-gigaton bomb.

Something I have noticed in history is that advocates of technological restraint are often labelled luddites or luddite supporters. Here's an example from 2016:

Artificial Intelligence Alarmists Win ITIF’s Annual Luddite Award

After a month-long public vote, the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) today announced that it has given its annual Luddite Award to a loose coalition of scie

... (read more)

Lack of access to the incorporated standards, since the standards often cost hundreds of dollars each to access.

Not only are many standards expensive, but they often include digital rights management that make them cumbersome to access and open.

In Australia, access to standards is controlled by private companies that can charge whatever they like. There's currently a petition to the Australian parliament with 22,526 signatures requesting free or affordable access to Australian Standards, including standards mandated by legislation. Across the ditch, the Ne... (read more)

Translation is a great idea.

It was one of the winners of the Future Fund’s Project Ideas Competition, and it's now listed on the project ideas page.

A problem unique to Chinese content is to ensure that it doesn't get blocked by their internet censorship policy.

1
JakubK
2y
Excellent, I'm happy to see that! However, I'm concerned that the proposal focuses entirely on translating general EA concepts. I think it is much higher priority (from the perspective of reducing AI x-risk) to translate AI alignment concepts, particularly the AGI Safety Fundamentals course material. It takes a lot of inferences to go from "I'm interested in doing good" to "I like EA ideas" to "I think AI alignment is important" to "I want to work on AI, where can I start?" And even if many Mandarin speakers reach that last point through a Mandarin translation of 80,000 Hours, they will currently find very few (if any?) structured opportunities to skill up for AI alignment. Additionally, I don't think one needs to know about longtermism and QALYs and PlayPumps to recognize the importance of AI alignment work. Nor does one need to care about doing as much good as possible with their career. One only needs to grasp why AI might be extremely dangerous and why advanced capabilities might be coming soon. One more point is that translating AI alignment resources may have lower risks than translating general EA content.

Thanks for bringing up the idea of case studies.

It would also be useful to study verification, compliance and enforcement of these regulations: "Trust, but verify."

A few suggestions for next steps:

1
Michael Huang
2y
* Support national laws and agencies regulating advanced AI. For the US, see this bipartisan bill and this proposal to establish a federal agency.

Thanks for your questions. Here are some thoughts:

[signalling or alarm system] would be a functional replacement, performing the same function as pain, but replacing suffering with information.

Is this something like rationality? Some individuals can learn by rational rather than emotional understanding. How can an individual's reasoning potential be known?

I think rationality would apply to both cases. Let's say you feel pain in your arm, you or your doctor would use rational methods to figure out what's wrong. The same thing would happen if a diagnostic to... (read more)

1
brb243
2y
Yes,  this should be the same. The question is whether the individual can feel pain but perceive it, by their rationality, equivalently to a e. g. a diagnostic tool signal. It seems to me that this is possible for educated humans: maybe there is a splinter which needs to be surgically removed - the human, in this example, understands the solution and does not subjectively suffer from the pain.  Assume that an animal feels pain in its arm due to a splinter. The pain functions as a signal to deprioritize other tasks and focus on trying to resolve the pain or decrease activity in the arm to allow healing. The animal, in this scenario, should be reminded of this by pain otherwise it will not perform the tasks or rest. In this example, the animal  does not have the rational capacity to follow recommendations without feeling pain. I am uncertain whether being compelled to action or rest by pain can be perceived by an animal without extensive rational capacity as subjectively non-negative. I can imagine that if the subjective perception of problem solving is valuable, such as showing how to rest an arm with a splinter to children, then it can be perceived well. Negative subjective perception can be associated with disvalue, such as being unable to play. I would argue that universal suffering reduction in one's immediate vicinity is more important than such across geographies (or times), if that can only include specific individuals. For example, if it is cost-effective (only considering individual health impact) to spray a vaccine that makes 10% of individuals healthy while 90% suffer a disease, then this could have negative wellbeing impact (while providing a 99% vaccination rate at one place and 0% at (larger) another can have a positive impact). Ok, so the suffering of r-strategists seems to be assumed without e. g. hormonal analysis (such as cortisol levels testing). Adult k- and r- strategists' suffering is also assumed. I am wondering about the definition of suff

No worries. I think we have different definitions of the status quo, and that is affecting our interpretation of the survey results.

Your definition of the status quo is a form of independence: functional independence (or perhaps de facto independence). In which case, since all the survey results show that "Maintain status quo" is popular, means that independence is the most popular choice.

My definition of the status quo is something in-between unification and independence, like a third way. It's the "none of the above" choice, disapproving both unification... (read more)

Thanks for your post! Good to see this issue in the EA Forum.

Regarding the statement that:

At this point, most people in Taiwan don’t consider themselves Chinese anymore and simply want to be their own nation instead, indefinitely.

Survey data supports your first point. The vast majority of people in Taiwan call themselves "Taiwanese" or "Both Taiwanese and Chinese":

Taiwanese/Chinese Identity, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University

 

Survey data doesn't support your second point though: "[most people in Taiwan] simply want to be their own nat... (read more)

3
Matthew_Barnett
2y
Thanks. I don’t agree with your interpretation of the survey data. I'll quote another sentence from the essay that made my statement on this more clear, The position "declare independence as soon as possible" is unpopular for an obvious reason that I explained in the post. Namely, if Taiwan made a formal declaration of independence, it would potentially trigger a Chinese invasion. "Maintaining the status quo" is, for the most part, code for maintaining functional independence, which is popular, because as you said, "It means peace and prosperity, and it has been surprisingly stable over the last 70 years." This is what I meant by saying the Taiwanese "want to be their own nation instead, indefinitely" in the sentence you quoted, because I was talking about what's actually practically true, not just what's true on paper.  I'll note that if you add up the percentage of people who want to maintain the status quo indefinitely, and those who want to maintain the status quo but move towards independence, it sums to 52.4%. It goes up to 58.4% if you include people who want to declare independence as soon as possible. I admit my wording sucked, but I think what I said basically matches the facts-on-the ground, if not the literal survey data you quoted, in the sense that there is almost no political will right now to reunify with China (at least until they meet some hypothetical conditions, which they probably won't any time soon).

WHO published a report on malaria eradication (2020) that covers megatrends like climate change.

It is similar to other reports in recommending over $6 billion per year to meet targets.

The Lancet Commission on Malaria Eradication (2019) : "Malaria eradication is likely to cost over $6 billion per year. The world is already spending around $4.3 billion."

If eradication is achieved by 2040, that would be about $120 billion in total.

None mentioned in the report. It refers to the Methods section of an online appendix but the appendix doesn't appear to be on the website.

$90 to $120 billion:

“Any costing of a 25-year eradication effort is speculative and involves uncertainties that increase over time. Nonetheless, initial modeling suggests that the costs of eradicating malaria could be $90–$120 billion between 2015 and 2040.”

From Aspiration to Action (2015)

1
Michael Huang
2y
The Lancet Commission on Malaria Eradication (2019) : "Malaria eradication is likely to cost over $6 billion per year. The world is already spending around $4.3 billion." If eradication is achieved by 2040, that would be about $120 billion in total.
5
Karthik Tadepalli
2y
From a quick skim, this doesn't seem to account for the poleward movement of malaria vectors that is likely to occur under climate change (https://www.un.org/en/chronicle/article/climate-change-and-malaria-complex-relationship), which seems like it would increase eradication costs substantially.
9
Geoffrey Irving
2y
Is that any particular confidence interval? It seems implausible that it would be so tight.

(Sorry, I didn't see your comment until now.)

Animal Ethics has some bibliographical lists: https://www.animal-ethics.org/bibliographical-lists/

Kyle Johannsen's book Wild Animal Ethics has extensive reference lists https://philpapers.org/rec/JOHWAE-2

Great feature! Just wondering whether Our World in Data charts can be embedded into Substack and Ghost in a similar way.

5
lennart
2y
You can implement them easily in Ghost by using the HTML embed. You find this when you click on the bottom right corner the share button and click "embed".

Charity Entrepreneurship has a report called "Welfare Focused Gene Modification" from March 2019 that mentions golden rice and other GMOs, mostly farm animal interventions. The report might be superseded though because it no longer appears on the website.

This is an interesting idea from the report: "A 'Good Gene Institute', similar to the Good Food Institute, that is focused on carefully and thoughtfully building public awareness and interest in individuals getting into the science of genetics-based animal issues."

Thanks for your post. There's a reasonable case for GMOs and malaria to be a cause area. Target Malaria is using genetic modification to reduce the population of malaria-transmitting mosquitoes.

Open Philanthropy writes, "It seems likely to us that the cost-effectiveness of this grant will be competitive with donations to the Against Malaria Foundation (though unlikely that it will be more than 10 times as cost-effective)" (Open Philanthropy, 2017).

8
mariushobbhahn
2y
Fully agree, Kevin Esvelt makes a very strong case for this idea in his appearance on Rationally Speaking.  I'll further update the text. 

An introductory reading list on wild animal welfare that covers all the important debates:

  • Should we intervene in wild animal welfare?
  • Will interventions work? Are they tractable?
  • What impact will wild animal welfare have on the long-term future?

The post was part of a 2018 series, the Wild Animal Welfare Literature Library Project.

Wild animal welfare has increased in prominence since then, e.g. Animal Charity Evaluators has regularly identified wild animal welfare as a key cause area.

3
Evan_Gaensbauer
2y
Yeah, I've been thinking of updating the library but that would take enough effort I haven't gotten around to it yet. I could get started on it whenever if I had some help. Please let me know if you or someone else you know would like to help. I might also make an EA Forum post requesting help, if you think that'd be a better idea.

It was Isaac Asimov's favorite story of the hundreds of stories he has written.

I found the ending impossible to forget.

 

Spoiler:

Very utopian. This is what could happen if everything goes right with AGI. The story doesn't cover all the things that could go wrong.

1
Multicolored Lemur
2y
And we ourselves might become “God.” Rich people will boost their minds with cyber, don’t say we won’t! And at a certain point, might leave the biological component behind. And more than that, realize that distributed computing is the way to eternal life. Some of my mind in a mechanical bird, some in a mechanical bear. When I’m visiting a planet with less advanced beings and perhaps sincerely trying to help, I might answer— “My child, I am all places [kind of true] and in all things [not really true] . . .” And hopefully, I’ll be more good-natured and even-tempered that the God of the Old Testament!

Thanks for your post!

Would an open access repository plus an open peer review system like PREreview or the Open Peer Review Module meet your needs?

Also, is there a need to create an open access multidisciplinary repository (green open access) for effective altruism researchers? Or is the existing network of repositories enough?

3
david_reinstein
2y
Not sure if this was meant for me or Lauren. Anyways, I've been in touch with the people at PREreview and I think it ticks the right boxes. I propose this in my "let's do this already action plan HERE" I think the crucial steps are 1. Set up an "experimental space" on PREreview allowing us to include additional, more quantitative metrics (they have offered this as a possibility) 2. Most important: Get funding and support (from Open Phil etc) and commitments (from GPI, RP, etc) * for people to do reviewing, rating, and feedback activities in our space PREreview * for 'editorial' people to oversee which research projects are relevant and assign relevant reviewers 1. Link arms with Cooper Smout and the "Free our Knowledge" pledges and initiatives like this one as much as possible I don't think setting up an OA journal with an impact factor is necessary. I think "credible quantitative peer review" is enough, and in fact the best mode. (But I am also supportive of open access journals with good feedback/rating models like SciPost, and it might be nice to have an EA-relevant place like this).

Hi Aaron,

Many thanks to you and everyone for organising and funding this contest.

If anyone is interested in a sequel, November is National Novel Writing Month (NaNoWriMo). The goal is to write 50,000 words in 30 days.

A good opportunity to expand that short story into a novel!

Thanks for creating this comprehensive list!

For the wild animal suffering section, there’s a book by Kyle Johannsen that covers the ethics of intervention:

https://www.routledge.com/Wild-Animal-Ethics-The-Moral-and-Political-Problem-of-Wild-Animal-Suffering/Johannsen/p/book/9780367275709

The timelines do a great job of visualising how colonisation would be completed quickly on a cosmic timescale.

There was also a memorable visualisation in Scientific American depicting how space colonies grow exponentially to fill the galaxy:  Crawford, Ian (2000) Where are they? Maybe we are alone in the galaxy after all, Scientific American, July.

The time it takes to colonise the galaxy depends on the speed of the colony ships and the time it takes for new colonies to create colony ships of their own.

The remarkable thing is that the home planet only ... (read more)

1
Martin Niwamanya
2y
Thanks for EA for your educative contents

That would work. Or an information symbol ⓘ (the letter 'i' in a circle).

Or a green sprout. Some games have that to indicate new players.

No worries, thanks for renaming it. I have added a short lead section.

Hello! The EA Hub has some scripts and slides in English: https://resources.eahub.org/events/intro/

Try contacting a staff member from the Groups Team, e.g. Catherine Low, for tips and pointers: https://www.centreforeffectivealtruism.org/team/

2
JonathanSalter
3y
Brilliant, thanks so much Michael!

Humanitarian Assistance for Wild Animals

New article about wild animal suffering, interventions, genome editing and gene drives:

Johannsen, Kyle (2021). Humanitarian Assistance for Wild Animals. The Philosophers' Magazine 93:33-37. Available on PhilArchive: https://philarchive.org/archive/JOHHAF-5

Good idea, but one issue with donating books to a library is that the librarian still has to decide whether to accept or reject the donation. Most librarians are very selective about what gets included and what gets weeded out of their collection.

Another option is to use the library website and find the "Suggest items for the library" web form. (Search the library catalogue first to see whether the library already holds the item.) If the librarian decides to purchase the book, it is completely funded by the library budget.

You can suggest the format too: pr... (read more)

To add to arguments for inclusion, here’s an excerpt from an EA Forum post about key figures in the animal suffering focus area.

“Major inspirations for those in this focus area include Peter Singer, David Pearce, and Brian Tomasik.”

Four focus areas of effective altruism by Luke_Muehlhauser, 8th Jul 2013

David Pearce’s work on suffering and biotechnology would be more relevant now than in 2013 due to developments in genome editing and gene drives.

"Genome editing and the replacement, reduction and relief of pain as a cause area"

  • A few individuals lead near-normal lives with the complete absence of pain due to natural genetic variations.
  • Genome editing has the potential to replicate these genetic variations in all animals and people.
  • The problem with eliminating pain is its important role in the detection and avoidance of injury.
  • The challenge is to remove pain while retaining this function. Options include these 3Rs (inspired by the 3Rs of animal testing):
    • Replace pain with a painless sensory system. Com
... (read more)