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I really don't understand why Greg agreed to this -or why would anyone agree. It is a sure-loss situation. If he is wrong and we all (most of us) are alive and kicking in 4 years, he has to pay. If he's right, he's dead. Could anyone explain me why on Earth would anyone agree to this bet? Thanks.

Our capacity is limited, so we unfortunately don’t get to speak with everyone!


Sure, that was not meant as a reproach!

Similar to what Brad says, posts not in line with EA mainstream, or just exploring or giving ideas, or not written in EA-style, or drafty are often down-voted very early on without engaging in discussion or giving any reason for the down-vote.

Even though forum moderators try to engage people to write even if the post is not perfectly polished or thought through --most people are very busy!-- to incentivize exchange of ideas, the dynamics of the forum make it basically useless as such posts are usually very quickly hidden. It often feels useless to write anything.

Another reason, which is understandable and difficult to avoid, but that I find a bit surprising in this forum, is the status and political dynamics: I've seen several times good posts with very low karma and afterwards very similar posts written by known EAs that have lots of karma.

I've seen this paper: The effects of communicating uncertainty around statistics, on public trust. I thought its findings may be extensible for communicating uncertainty around not-statistics, so potentially useful for the community.

I just read an interview with Roberto Saviano (author of the book Gomorrah in which he denounced the organised crime in Italy) in which he says that his quest against the mafia has destroyed his life, not only he needs protection 24/7, he feels very alone. In his new book he explains the problems that the judge Giovanni Falcone run into because of his fight against the mafia, that led to his death. So, Salviano is now in "selling mode" in precisely this topic, but still, it made me think that making the life of whistle blowers and the like (like him or even the judge) may be an effective way to do good. Protection may not be neglected —although it may depend case by case— but in general making their life more livable and easier to navigate may help them focus better in their reporting work and help fight injustice. I don't think this has been checked, so I just wanted to leave this comment here in case anyone wants to make a preliminary research to assess whether it is doable and effective.

I write only as user, I don't have any further knowledge but I have never seen it. There are the hair dressers that collaborate with "whip organisations" but as far as I know, they only collect the hair of the people who want to donate it. 

In general, I don't think it is very common that people want to cut >20cm of hair in one go, and it makes the hair dresser's work somehow less natural, as they usually don't cut all hair at once (i.e. make a ponytail and cut it). Maybe those collaborating hair dresses would ask a customer who wants to cut their hair in one go if they may donate it?

I forgot to ask you who are those "degrowthers" that you refer to. I never came across them. Could you please give me a couple of names?

GDP contraction (=somebody's income contraction)

This is obvious. And, again, the point is that the relationship between GDP and social outcomes after some point breaks down or becomes irrelevant.

Many things can lead to degrowth, and some could be necesary. What I point out is that degrowth is allwayws a negative side consequence. You do not plan for it, you suffer it (the less, the better).

It seems strange to argue in favour of not planning for a negative consequence of something that may be necessary.

Has anyone, to your knowledge, assessed the chances that an energy descent ("Most Underrated EA Forum Post in 2022") poses a significant global catastrophic risk? If not, who should look into that? If yes, what were the outcomes and how do/should they change EA's priorities?

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