This is a brilliant and necessary post - as is the link you share to the 2019 post. Thank you!
When I first because interested in EA, the message I saw everywhere was "pivot! devote your career to being impactful!"
The implication was that EA is massively talent-limited. I now know that this was not the case.
There are a lot of people who would like to do impactful work
But it's not just typical EA work. The same holds true for wanting to work on climate-change - an area which includes many people who have never heard of EA. Or animal-welfare. Or whatever. I am on a Slack containing 29,000 people, many highly qualified and motivated, who want to work on climate.
I suppose we should not be surprised - indeed we should be encouraged - to find that impactful careers are much in demand. It's a sign that there are many people out in this world who are not as cynical and self-centred as some politicians would have us believe.
An economist might look at it in this way: the satisfaction of knowing that you are doing good is a form of payment, which makes the job more appealing and/or enables the job to be filled at lower salary and/or with tougher requirements. If you have a very impactful position for a role that would normally command $100K / year on the normal job-market, you can probably offer $60K and get lots of great candidates, and you could even insist that they come to the office every day by 8.00 a.m. (please don't!)
Impactful roles are resource-limited, not talent-limited
Looked at from a broader perspective, we can all see that impactful roles are resource limited. If we compare the number of people working on climate-change, or alternative protein, or AI governance, to the number of people who should be working in these areas in a world in which resources were distributed according to the value of the work being done, there might be 100x as many EA roles as there are today.
If there were a carbon-market which reflected the true cost of carbon, then work to reduce or eliminate CO2 emissions, or to capture carbon, would be highly lucrative, and many more roles would be funded. If governments truly understood the dangers of AI (or if public-opinion forced them to understand it), it's likely that much more funding would be put into work in this field. And so on.
But it's not happening right now. And so the majority of EA's who would like to work in impactful roles just don't have that opportunity. So what should we do?
What should we do?
One option is to give up. Very few EA's will do that. Because EA comes from caring about the world's problems, you can't just decide to stop caring.
Two very practical options are earning-to-give and/or volunteering. Both of these involve "separating" your career-path from your EA role, but still using your career to enable you to help EA by freeing up your time or your money. [A good analogy here is how many people who dream of being writers, actors, musicians, etc. find much more happiness and freedom when they decide that this need not be their primary source of income. They sometimes end up writing better books and making better music too.]
But, in parallel with this, there are areas where commitment and grit are far more critical than brilliance, and maybe (perhaps while earning in a normal job), these are areas where we all could focus.
Policy / Political Agitation / Grassroots work
Maybe the most promising area (IMHO) for us mediocre EA's to focus is in policy and even politics. This can be done in parallel to a "real" job. It can be about joining local groups (EA or not) and pushing for policy changes. It can be about writing to our local politicians and attending their meetings. It can be about getting involved at grass-roots level. None of these things require not being mediocre.
For example, any sensible analysis tells me that we should be investing huge resources into artificial protein. For so many reasons. But not only is this not happening, but there are places where the agriculture lobby is pushing for alternative protein-based foods to be banned, or to be forced to have off-putting labels. And they are winning. It's absurd. Maybe 1000 mediocre EA's, even without tractors, could protest in Brussels or London or Washington to fight this short-sighted type of policy-making. But maybe one or two passionate mediocre EA's could start a movement, or join a political party and start something within that party. If 5 mediocre EA's who are struggling to find roles within EA were to decide to form a group in their local country, to get some advice from groups like GFI who work in the area, and to just agitate for policy change with more support and fewer misguided restrictions for alternative protein, it could be hugely impactful.
I'm sure there are plenty of other examples. But my point is: success in this area is probably much more related to commitment and grit than it is to brilliance.
Counterfactuals
Before concluding that anything that isn't a direct EA-job is somehow less impactful, it's important to consider counterfactual value add.
Maybe in the current situation, with so many brilliant people wanting to work in EA, the counterfactual value I might add by working in an "EA job" could even be negative, if the person who might have taken that job instead might have been better than me in that role.
On the other hand, the counterfactual value of taking the GWWC pledge and earning to give while doing valuable work (even if not super-impactful by EA standards) is definitely very positive. And the counterfactual value of doing the unglamourous work of pushing your local politicians towards voting for better policies on vital issues like alternative protein might be huge - even if nobody (not even you) will ever realise or recognise how much value you've added.
Add to this that in many roles (teaching, health-care, public-service, ...) there is a great capacity for doing good, for being impactful. And even in roles which are seen as the most mundane (think a "middle-manager" in a soap-company), there can be huge potential to help individuals, to improve sustainability, to coach young employees to be better members of society, to promote more inclusive policies, or whatever. There is so much potential to do good and have an impact if we choose to.
Apologies
- I've been thinking about this a lot, so the above is a rather incoherent attempt to put together some thoughts after midnight, and it's ended up longer than I intended.
- I've used the word "mediocre" as it was used in the title. I think both the post-author and I fully realise that nobody is mediocre. I appreciated the use of a provocative term to make us think more deeply about it! So at least in my usage, I was being intentionally ironic (in case that wasn't obvious). And even among people who are not mediocre, because none of us are, people who choose to devote their careers to EA are even less mediocre than others, in a sense that is illogical but still kind of says what I mean to say. Whether they have the specific, narrow skill-set for a specific role, whether they happen to be in the right place at the right time to get that role, etc., are just details.
I'm so glad someone wrote this. EA has real gaps caused by selecting a narrow group of people and demanding they only work on the most important things. Tasks that are unglamorous or just don't make sense as a job duty accumulate like housekeeping when you're sick. People who have the slack to do these without displacing a higher priority task have some highly leveraged actions available to them.
Indeed, 3, 5, and 6 may be easier / more effective if you're not in a "professional EA" job or expecting to get one.
some of them (3, 5, 6, 7) already need quite a bit of knowledge. I am not saying they are not worth doing!