691 karmaJoined Jun


I follow Crocker's rules.


Reach heaven through research consulting.

People other than at Arb also offering it (at various rates):

I remember Sarah Constantin having been available for this too, but I don't know whether she still does research consulting.

Thank you! His name was somewhat hard to google, because of another (apparently more Google-famous) David Goldberg.

I don't know. Which EA organisation did he found?

I believe that was a joke.

Answer by niplavDec 17, 20233

No consensus as far as I know, but there's Trophic Cascades Caused by Fishing (Brian Tomasik, 2015). Summary:

One of the ecological effects of human fishing is to change the distribution of prey animals in the food web. Some evidence suggests that harvesting of big predatory fish may increase populations of smaller forage fish and decrease zooplankton populations. Meanwhile, harvesting forage fish directly (to eat as sardines/anchovies or to feed to farmed fish, pigs, or chickens) should tend to decrease forage-fish populations and increase zooplankton populations. On the other hand, it may also be that harvesting more fish reduces total fish biomass in the ocean, without significantly increasing smaller fish populations. There are many other trends that might be observed, and generalization is difficult.

Was this practice clearly delineated as an experiment to the participants?

Related question: How does one become someone like Carl Shulman (or Wei Dai, for that matter)?

The story I know is that if you can change the course of such an object by a slight amount early enough, that should be sufficient to cause significant deviations late in its course. Am I mistaken about this, and the force is not strong enough because the deviation is far too small?

This is a great post, strong upvote.

I am confused about your description who "handles" what. Especially for threats that move at the speed of light (solar flares, super flares, super nova explosions, gamma ray blasts, quasar ignition &c), it seems like the only option is increasing civilizational robustness, right? Additionally, you say that for rogue celestial bodies, "Managing this threat is futile", which is true at the current level of technology, but if we had the energy of our sun available, surely we could redirect the path of such an object if detected early enough?

The only threat that looks like it truly falls into the category "unmanageable" is false vacuum decay, except maybe by interspersing as much as possible in the reachable universe, and avoiding destabilising fundamental physics experiments (though, ah, fictional evidence).

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