I haven't looked into this literature, but it sounds remarkably similar to the literature of cognitive behavioral therapy and graded exercise therapy for ME/CFS (also sometimes referred to as 'chronic fatigue syndrome'). I can imagine this being different for pain which could be under more direct neurological control.

Pretty much universally, this research was of low to very low quality. For example, using overly broad inclusion criteria such that many patients did not have the core symptom of ME/CFS, and only reporting subjective scores (which tend to improve) while not reporting objective scores. These treatments are also pretty much impossible to blind. Non-blinding + subjective self-report is a pretty bad combination. This, plus the general amount of bad research practices in science, gives me a skeptical prior.

Regarding the value of anecdotes - over the past couple of years as ME/CFS patient (presumably from covid) I've seen remission anecdotes for everything under the sun. They're generally met with enthusiasm and a wave of people trying it, with ~no one being able te replicate it. I suspect that "I cured my condition X psychologically" is often a more prevalent story because 1) it's tried so often, and 2) it's an especially viral meme. Not because it has a higher succes rate than a random supplement. The reality is that spontaneous remission for any condition seems not extremely unlikely, and it's actually very hard to trace effects to causes (which is why even for effective drugs, we need large-scale highly rigorous trials).

Lastly, ignoring symptoms can be pretty dangerous so I recommend caution with the approach and approach it like you would any other experimental treatment.

I'm starting a discussion group on Signal to explore and understand the democratic backsliding of the US at ‘gears-level’. We will avoid simply discussing the latest outrageous thing in the news, unless that news is relevant to democratic backsliding.

Example questions: 

• “how far will SCOTUS support Trump's executive overreach?”
• “what happens if Trump commands the military to support electoral fraud?”
• "how does this interact with potentially short AGI timelines?”
• "what would an authoritarian successor to Trump look like?"
• "are there any neglected, tractable, and important interventions?"

You can join the group here. (If the link doesn't work anymore in the future, DM me.)

For the record, by authoritarian takeover I mean a gradual process aiming for a situation like Hungary (which they've frequently cited as their inspiration and something to aspire to). Given that Trump has tried to orchestrate a coup the last time he was in office, I don't think it's a hyperbolic claim to say he's trying again this time. I'm also not making any claims about the likelihood of success. 

is only getting the upvotes (at the time I posted, it was all upvotes and "agree" reacts), because of the forum's political bias.

I think this is very uncharitable to other Forum users. (Unless you meant "is getting only upvotes [..]")

Oh I was just l looking through how much Trump is/isn't discussed on the forum and came across this comment and saw the many disagrees for the first time. 

I don't think discussing authoritarian takeover is against Forum rules, though EA is not the ideal place for political resistance given its broad amount of causes for which it needs political tractability. However, it's tricky because US political dynamics are currently extremely influential for EA cause areas, and I think we need to do better thinking through how various areas will be affected, and how policies might interact with the affect that the US administration is proto-authoritarian. We should not simply pretend the US administration is a normal one.

That said, in these discussion we should be careful to not descend into 'mere partisanship' though I don't know where that line is. I wish the Forum team would give more guidance. 

I don't think it's that misleading because

• Will Manifold think Trump made a serious about to remain in charge? (35%, n=26, would be ~26% without my bets). Resolves via Manifold poll
• Trump tried something arguably coup-like but it fails (25%, n=44) and the linked "Trump remains in office" is 15% (n=43), putting the total attempt probability at 40%. Other markets put success at lower rates though, which seems more realistic.

The President has also already tried a coup once (fake elector scheme, J6). There's a much bigger case I could make but I don't want to do that here

I appreciate you looking into the resolution criteria, because they matter. And yes, partisan SCOTUS rulings being included muddles the evidence somewhat. That said, I don't think it's that misleading because

• Will Manifold think Trump made a serious about to remain in charge? (35%, n=26, would be ~26% without my bets). Resolves via Manifold poll
• Trump tried something arguably coup-like but it fails (25%, n=44) and the linked "Trump remains in office" is 15% (n=43), putting the total attempt probability at 40%. Other markets put success at lower rates though, which seems more realistic.

In hindsight I would've referenced the Manifold poll resolution.

I recommend everyone in this thread looking at the US Democracy topic on Manifold which I have added all relevant questions to that I could find (and also look elsewhere, e.g. Metaculus, which has much fewer questions but arguably better incentives for long-term questions)

P.S.

I also have a separate question for specifically a controversial SCOTUS ruling in favor of Republicans but it doesn't have enough traders.

Oh boy, this wasn't my best take! 

I hope we're due for an updated calculation now the tariffs have been implemented! Or maybe good to wait until the back and forth reciprocal tariffs have settled.. 

The link to your Substack doesn't work by the way.

The current US administration is attempting an authoritarian takeover. This takes years and might not be successful. My manifold question puts an attempt to seize power if they lose legitimate elections at 30% (n=37). I put it much higher.^[1]

Not only is this concerning by itself, this also incentivizes them to achieve a strategic decisive advantage via superintelligence over pro-democracy factions. As a consequence, they may be willing to rush and cut corners on safety. 

Crucially, this relies on them believing superintelligence can be achieved before a transfer of power.

I don't know how much the belief in superintelligence has spread into the administration. I don't think Trump is 'AGI-pilled' yet, but maybe JD Vance is? He made an accelerationist speech. Making them more AGI-pilled and advocating for nationalization (like Ashenbrenner did last year) could be very dangerous.

1. ^{^}

   So far, my pessimism about US Democracy has put me in #2 on the Manifold topic, with a big lead over other traders. I'm not a Superforecaster though.