How about adding this one?

https://manifold.markets/Siebe/if-trump-is-elected-will-the-us-sti

The Malaysia prevalence is based on a small sample size of n = 595 (from the Fishera et al. Meta-analysis) so it would suggest leaving that out

A study of 53 patients who had used psilocybin or LSD found that “twenty-two of 26 psilocybin users reported that psilocybin aborted attacks; 25 of 48 psilocybin users and 7 of 8 LSD users reported cluster period termination; 18 of 19 psilocybin users and 4 of 5 LSD users reported remission period extension” (Sewell et al., 2006). Another online survey of 270 cluster headache sufferers revealed that 68% of respondents who used tryptamines had a 4 or 5 out of 5 relief, with 5 being “completely eliminated the cluster headaches” (Frerichs, 2019).

While these are very promising effect sizes, the methods are of low quality (e.g. high risk of bias). I would suggest a properly powered RCT before concluding that psychedelics are really that effective.

I just learned that Lawrence Lessig, the lawyer who is/was representing Daniel Kokateljo and other OpenAI employees, supported and encouraged electors to be faithless and vote against Trump in 2016.

He wrote an opinion piece in the Washington Post (archived) and offered free legal support. The faithless elector story was covered by Politico, and was also supported by Mark Ruffalo (the actor who recently supported SB-1047).

I think this was clearly an attempt to steal an election and would discourage anyone from working with him.

I expect someone to eventually sue AGI companies for endangering humanity, and I hope that Lessig won't be involved.

Thanks for doing this!

I don't know how useful the results are, as extinction is not the only existentially catastrophic scenario I care about. And I wonder if and how the ranking changes when the question is about existential catastrophe. For example, do people think AI is unlikely to cause extinction but likely to cause a bad form of human disempowerment?

Nice list! I often also see Art of the Gathering as recommendation but it didn't make yours?

Drunk driving is illegal because it risks doing serious harm. It's still illegal when the harm has not occurred (yet). Things can be crimes without harm having occurred.

I guess this is the same dynamic as why movie and sports stars are high status in society: they are highly visible compared to more valuable members of society (and more entertaining to watch). We don't really see much of highly skilled operations people compared to researchers

That seems relevant for AI vs. Humans, but not for AI vs AI.

Most totalitarian regimes are pretty bad at creating value, with China & Singapore as exceptions. (But in many regimes, creating that value isn't necessary to remain in power of there's e.g. income from oil)

Forecasts:

Metaculus: 40% that it passes (n=69)

Manifold:

• 39% that it passes (n=191)
• 69% that it makes it to Gov. Newsom (n=32), which implies a 58% chance of a Newsom veto
• 22% that Anthropic publicly endorses the bill (n=45)