I might be untapped with the latest update here, but did they release the reason behind Altman's firing? I don't think it was ever answered by him in the subsequent interviews. Gradually questions died down or probably dropped from the questioner's list due to a clause, maybe. Now that he is back at the table,[1]I think it has become more urgent to get the original motivations out.
[Also informed by FTX]
Epistemic status: some of these assertions are lightly held, and it's possible they may not apply to specific situations that well. Analyzing someone's motives can be challenging, and I have zero inside knowledge of dynamics at OpenAI.
What to do about these truths is a more difficult question. There are probably some low-hanging fruit: when making a decision, model what would happen if a core person or interconnected core group goes rouge. Incorporate the risk of empowering people who may fall prey to the allure of money, fame, power, etc. into one's assessments. But strongly mitigating against the allure of money, power, fame, etc. when trying to get stuff done -- especially when trying to get stuff done quickly -- is rather difficult.
This is not a 41-year old asserting that we shouldn't trust anyone under thirty! I am, however, asserting that we have much less data about their resilience to the allure of money, power, fame, etc. than we have for a 50-year old who has occupied positions over a period of time with an increasing exposure to that allure. Risk models should reflect that increased uncertainty.
Are there statements or predictions which you believe have been falsified by recent events because of these four points?
The things you are saying all sound to me like things people would have agreed with in 2015. The oldest EA-ish post I can find about OAI specifically concludes that the author is distrustful of Sam (though not for the reasons you state). This 2017 post says:
Prominent safety-oriented people have left OAI (Paul Christiano, Dario Amodei, etc.), which maybe could be interpreted as them having been mistaken about what to expect at OAI, but I'm not sure to what extent the four points you listed above were causal in their decisions.
It feels to more to me like people were aware that their priorities differed from OAI's, but thought it was still net positive to work there. And I'm not sure that any of them actually disagree with that take now? I'd be interested to hear comments from those more knowledgeable than me.
Thanks. I would be interested on others' thoughts on that point as well.
To clarify, I didn't read the post's question as "What did EA do wrong with OpenAI?" but instead as "What should we learn from Altman 'showing his true colors'?" So it wasn't intended as a postmortem of OpenAI per se. I strongly suspect that most EAs would have agreed with my general points in 2015 . . . but how much weight did they give them versus other considerations? I wasn't there, so will have to rely on others to say.
Looking at the posts you shared, both seem to take Altman and OpenAI mostly at their world that the mission was . . . open (as opposed to proprietary) AI. That doesn't seem to be the mission anymore, and I'd argue OpenAI is more dangerous as a result.[1] So it seems there may have been inadequate consideration of the principles I listed in analyzing the risk of that particular failure mode. Given that OpenAI was primarily funded elsewhere, it's not clear how much EA could have done about this risk, other than perhaps being more wary about encouraging people to work for/with OpenAI.
Whatever the downsides of publicly releasing AI information, an organization focused on that mission isn't likely to rake in the massive amounts of $$$ needed to be where OpenAI is now on capabilities. At some point, OpenAI pivoted to acting much more like any for-profit company would be expected to act, as opposed to an organization acting in the public interest.
I agree with your points in general, but I'm confused at the context. Are you implying here that EA empowered and trusted Sam Altman?:
That [edit: sentence] wasn't specific to Altman; as the top of post notes, these propositions were influenced by both the FTX debacle and Altman. The lack of accountability and oversight at certain EA organizations also contributed to that [edit: sentence], which was intended to assert that understating corruption risk from insiders may be a blind spot for EA more generally.
That being said, I think there are some data points which could suggest that EAs and EA-related entities should have been more skeptical of Altman and OpenAI than they were. As this post notes, there was a large grant to OpenAI in 2017, and as of 2021 their non-safety related jobs were still being promoted on the 80K job board even after some worrisome signs of Altman's turn in focus. I've also seen several AI-focused posters opine that EA's involvement with OpenAI has been one of the movement's significant failings, which could suggest an error in trusting Altman's motives.
Okay, got it!
The grant was also to buy a board seat, which makes it very different from a normal grant.
The 80K job promotion is indeed odd.
I think there was plenty of skepticism towards OpenAI, but maybe less so at the top
That is explicitly true, no? Open Philanthropy was an early OpenAI donor.