Non-EA interests include chess and TikTok (@benthamite). We are probably hiring: https://metr.org/hiring
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do you have a sense of how to interpret the differences between options? E.g. I could imagine that basically everyone always gives an answer between 5 and 6, so a difference of 5.1 and 5.9 is huge. I could also imagine that scores are uniformly distributed between the entire range of 1-7, in which case 5.1 vs 5.9 isn't that big.
Relatedly, I like how you included "positive action" as a comparison point but I wonder if it's worth including something which is widely agreed to be mediocre (Effective Lawnmowing?) so that we can get a sense of how bad some of the lower scores are.
Nice! My guess is that the most immediate way this data could be useful is that organizations who get funding on the basis of a "meta" theory of change (e.g. funding by OP, EAIF, MCF) get more/less funding because it turns out they are doing more/less to bring people in than expected. So maybe I would start with organizations funded by those groups, along with some other class of organizations to use as a control.
Thanks for writing this. I feel like the following is the crux of your criticism of LIC:
ACE acknowledges the lawsuit was dismissed, but still celebrates this achievement. They note that this achievement would inspire similar lawsuits. Would it be good to inspire more lawsuits that cost $200,000 and are dismissed?
You state this as though the answer is "obviously no" but the answer feels extremely nonobvious to me. I note that you excluded the some key things when quoting ACE:
LIC’s first lawsuit, a shareholder derivative case against Costco’s executives for chicken neglect, was featured on TikTok and in multiple media outlets, including CNN Business, Fox Business, The Washington Post, and Meatingplace... We thought the achievement has strong potential for indirect impact, and it received a high amount of media attention. - ACE
The Facebook fan page still as of this writing has a post about the lawsuit pinned to the top because apparently the owner decided to boycott after learning about the cruelty.
It sounds like the Costco board also had to take official action:
In a letter dated August 15, 2023, Costco’s board stated that it had “formed a Board committee to review and investigate the demand’s allegations.” LIC’s shareholder clients then met with investigators retained by the committee. - LIC
Is it worth $200k to get a bunch of bad publicity for Costco, force the board to form a committee and hire an investigator, etc.?
I don't know, I'm pretty willing to believe that the answer is "no", but it doesn't seem obvious to me. I could pretty easily believe that the CEO of the next company they sue would to change their policies instead of having to deal with the embarrassment of asking the board to form a committee to investigate.
I agree that diversification may not make sense for most small donors! Some arguments in favor and against this position can be found in this topic, if you are interested.
Thanks for writing this, Alene!
Is there something you could share about why you think this? E.g. have analogous projects succeeded before, have the previous cases had judgments indicating that the case would succeed on appeal, etc.?