ClaireZabel

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Asking for advice

Huh, this is great to know. Personally, I'm the opposite, I find it annoying when people ask to meet and don't  include a calendly link or similar, I am slightly annoyed by the time it takes to write a reply email and generate a calendar invite, and the often greater overall back-and-forth and attention drain from having the issue linger. 

Curious how anti-Calendly people feel about the "include a calendly link + ask people to send timeslots if they prefer" strategy. 

avacyn's Shortform

Some people are making predictions about this topic here.

On that link, someone comments:

Berkeley's incumbent mayor got the endorsement of Bernie Sanders in 2016, and Gavin Newsom for 2020. Berkeley also has a strong record of reelecting mayors. So I think his base rate for reelection should be above 80%, barring a JerryBrownesque run from a much larger state politician.
https://www.dailycal.org/2019/08/30/berkeley-mayor-jesse-arreguin-announces-campaign-for-reelection/
Is the Buy-One-Give-One model an effective form of altruism?

I just wanted to say I thought this was overall an impressively thorough and thoughtful comment. Thank you for making it!

Information security careers for GCR reduction

I’ve created a survey about barriers to entering information security careers for GCR reduction, with a focus on whether funding might be able to help make entering the space easier. If you’re considering this career path or know people that are, and especially if you foresee money being an obstacle, I’d appreciate you taking the survey/forwarding it to relevant people. 

The survey is here: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScEwPFNCB5aFsv8ghIFFTbZS0X_JMnuquE3DItp8XjbkeE6HQ/viewform?usp=sf_link. Open Philanthropy and 80,000 Hours staff members will be able to see the results.  I expect it to take around 5-25 minutes to take the survey, depending on how many answers are skipped. 

I’ll leave the survey open until EOD March 2nd. 

Some personal thoughts on EA and systemic change

[meta] Carl, I think you should consider going through other long, highly upvoted comments you've written and making them top-level posts. I'd be happy to look over options with you if that'd be helpful.

What book(s) would you want a gifted teenager to come across?

Cool project. I went to maybe-similar type of school and I think if I had encountered certain books earlier, it would have had a really good effect on me. The book categories I think I would most have benefitted from when I was that age:

  • Books about how the world very broadly works. A lot of history felt very detail-oriented and archival, but did less to give me a broad sense of how things had changed over time, what kinds of changes are possible, and what drives them. Top rec in that category: Global Economic History: A Very Short Introduction. Other recs: The Better Angels of Our Nature, Sapiens, Moral Mazes (I've never actually read the whole thing, just quotes),
  • Books about rationality, especially how it can cause important things to go awry, how that has happened historically and might be happening now. Reading these was especially relief-inducing because I already had concerns along those lines that I didn't see people articulate, and finally reading them was a hugely comforting experience. Top recs: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality, Rationality: From AI to Zombies (probably these were the most positively transformative books I've read, but Eliezer books are polarizing and some might have parts that people think are inappropriate for minors, and I can't remember which), Thinking Fast and Slow. Other recs: Inadequate Equilibria,
  • Some other misc recs I'm not going to explain: Permutation City, Animal Liberation, Command and Control, Seeing like a State, Deep Work, Nonviolent Communication

EA is vetting-constrained

I would guess the bottleneck is elsewhere too, think the bottleneck is something like managerial capacity/trust/mentorship/vetting of grantmakers. I recently started thinking about this a bit, but am still in the very early stages.

EA is vetting-constrained

(Just saw this via Rob's post on Facebook) :)

Thanks for writing this up, I think you make some useful points here.

Based on my experience doing some EA grantmaking at Open Phil, my impression is that the bottleneck isn't in vetting precisely, though that's somewhat directionally correct. It's more like there's a distribution of projects, and we've picked some of the low-hanging fruit, and on the current margin, grantmaking in this space requires more effort per grant to feel comfortable with, either to vet (e.g. because the case is confusing, we don't know the people involved), to advise (e.g. the team is inexperienced), to refocus (e.g. we think they aren't focusing on interventions that would meet our goals, and so we need to work on sharing models until one of us is moved), or to find. 

Often I feel like it's an inchoate combination of something like "a person has a vague idea they need help sharpening, they need some advice about structuring the project, they need help finding a team, the case is hard to understand and think about". 

Importantly, I suspect it'd be bad for the world if we lowered our bar, though unfortunately I don't think I want to or easily can articulate why I think that now. 

Overall, I think generating more experienced grantmakers/mentors for new projects is a priority for the movement.

In defence of epistemic modesty

I'm not sure where I picked it up, though I'm pretty sure it was somewhere in the rationalist community.

E.g. from What epistemic hygiene norms should there be?:

Explicitly separate “individual impressions” (impressions based only on evidence you've verified yourself) from “beliefs” (which include evidence from others’ impressions)

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