Thanks for the post! One (oversimplified) analogy I like is thinking about life as a chess game. The best move only depends on the current state of the board!
I have a draft post about the Comparison between the hedonic utility of human life and chicken suffering, and would very much welcome your feedback regarding the modelling of the Moral weight of chickens and Living conditions of chickens.I appreciate that these are very hard to quantify, and that more research is needed, but I think modelling our current beliefs could still be useful to make trade-offs explicit. Ideally, I would like the distributions (of the moral weight and living conditions) to reflect some kind of aggregated "best guess" of the most informed people, and I belive you are amongst the most well position people to know this.
Thanks for building this page! Could you point me to any resources regarding concrete steps for creating an EA group? I found this and this and this, but I think I remember going through a page in the past with concrete steps...
Thanks for this post!The current cost-effectiveness of AMF is saving 1 life / 4.5 k$. This implies, according to the Guesstimate model, that the median of the ratio between THL's and AMF's cost-effectiveness is 20, and its mean is larger than 1000.
You can download this spreadsheet to quickly assess the extent to which impostor syndrome experiences interfere with your life, based on the Clance IP Scale.
Thanks, I really liked this article!
"However, even the most fundamentalist Christians might be responsive to arguments that the total number of people we could create in the future -- who would all have save-able souls -- could vastly exceed the current number of Christians".
I had thought about the above before, thanks for pointing it out!
Thanks for the feedback! I am aware of that guide, but it seems to lack the incorporation of bayesian reasoning (it is highlighted here as an example of an explicit expect value approach).