Estimation of existential risk

Further reading

Beard, Simon, Thomas Rowe & James Fox (2020) An analysis and evaluation of methods currently used to quantify the likelihood of existential hazards, Futures, vol. 115, pp. 1–14.

Besiroglu, Tamay (2019) Ragnarök Series — results so far, Metaculus, October 15.

Goth, Aidan, Stephen Clare & Christian Ruhl (2022) Professor Philip Tetlock’s research on improving judgments of existential risk, Founders Pledge, March 8.

Karger, Ezra, Pavel D. Atanasov & Philip Tetlock (2022) Improving judgments of existential risk: Better forecasts, questions, explanations, policies, SSRN Electronic Journal.

Muehlhauser, Luke (2019) How feasible is long-range forecasting?, Open Philanthropy, October 10.

Sandberg, A. & Bostrom, N. (2008) Global Catastrophic Risks Survey, Technical Report #2008-1, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford.

Tonn, Bruce & Dorian Stiefel (2013) Evaluating methods for estimating existential risks, Risk Analysis, vol. 33, pp. 1772–1787.

AI forecasting | anthropic shadow | existential risk | forecasting | long-range forecasting