Estimation of existential risk is the set of methods for assessing the probability of human extinction and other existential catastrophes.

Further reading

Beard, Simon, Thomas Rowe & James Fox (2020) An analysis and evaluation of methods currently used to quantify the likelihood of existential hazards, Futures, vol. 115, pp. 1–14.

Besiroglu, Tamay (2019) Ragnarök Series — results so far, Metaculus, October 15.

Bostrom, Nick (2002) Existential risks: Analyzing human extinction scenarios and related hazards, Journal of evolution and technology, vol. 9.
The section “Assessing the Probability of Existential Risks” discusses methods of existential risk estimation.

Goth, Aidan, Stephen Clare & Christian Ruhl (2022) Professor Philip Tetlock’s research on improving judgments of existential risk, Founders Pledge, March 8.

Karger, Ezra, Pavel D. Atanasov & Philip Tetlock (2022) Improving judgments of existential risk: Better forecasts, questions, explanations, policies, SSRN Electronic Journal.

Muehlhauser, Luke (2019) How feasible is long-range forecasting?, Open Philanthropy, October 10.

Sandberg, A. & Bostrom, N. (2008) Global Catastrophic Risks Survey, Technical Report #2008-1, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford.

Tonn, Bruce & Dorian Stiefel (2013) Evaluating methods for estimating existential risks, Risk Analysis, vol. 33, pp. 1772–1787.

Related entries

AI forecasting | anthropic shadow | existential risk | forecasting | long-range forecasting