Hi, I'm Max :)
>50M metric tons of cellular meat will be sold at any price within a continuous 12-month span before the end of 2051. | 9% |
Finally, I'm also probably more optimistic about your last point, thinking that price/taste competitive meat alternatives will be huge. I think the Beyond and Impossible "moments" were huge milestones, and a few more "moments" like that will reduce resistance against higher welfare standards & higher prices for conventional meat.
Really interesting, thanks for sharing. I was particularly surprised about your changes of mind here:
We can make meaningful progress on abolishing factory farming or improving farmed animal welfare by 2050 75% 10% -65% We can make meaningful progress on abolishing factory farming or improving farmed animal welfare by 2100 85% 15% -70%
E.g. some spontaneous potential cruxes that might be interesting to hear your disagreement with, in case they capture your reasons for pessimism:
I feel incapable of being heard correctly at this point, so I guess it was a mistake to speak up at all and I'm going to stop now.
Noooo, sorry you feel that way. T_T I think you sharing your thinking here is really helpful for the broader EA and good-doer field, and I think it's an unfortunate pattern that online communications quickly feels (or even is) somewhat exhausting and combative.
Just an idea, maybe you would have a much better time doing an interview with e.g. Spencer Greenberg on his Clearer Thinking podcast, or Robert Wiblin on the 80,000 Hours podcast? I feel like they are pretty good interviewers who can ask good questions that make for accurate and informative interviews.
Meal replacement companies were there for us, through thick and slightly less thick.
Some commentary from Zvi that I found interesting, including pointers to some other people’s reactions:
Thanks, that all makes sense and moderates my optimism a bit, and it feels like we roughly exhausted the depth of thinking. Sigh... anyways, I'm really thankful and maybe also optimistic for the work that dedicated and strategically thinking people like you have been and will be doing for animals.